夹在中美之间的新加坡 特朗普时代的新加坡的未来

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The eagle, the lion and the dragon: Singapore's future in the age of Trump

夹在中美之间的新加坡特朗普时代的新加坡的未来



(CNN)Caught between anascendent China and anincreasingly unreliable United States,Singapore's diplomatic futureis at the heart of a debate on who really calls the shots in Asia.

一边是国力日增的中国,另一边是越来越靠不住的美国,新加坡的未来的外交走向取决于这两国中哪国会成为亚洲的龙头老大。

The Lion City hashistorically had strong relations with both countries, an ally in Asia forWashington during the Cold War and one of China's first partners in theirefforts to modernize their economy. Over the years Singaporehas been very good at picking "the middle path" between the twosuperpowers, analysts tell CNN, balancing their positive relationships withboth America and China.

狮城传统上和中美两国都保持着良好的关系。冷战期间,它是华盛顿的亚洲盟友。同时,它又是第一批支持中国经济现代化的国家之一。多年以来,新加坡在中美之长袖善舞,左右逢源,和中美两个超级大国保持着积极的关系。

But as new US President Donald Trump's attention drifts andChinese leader Xi Jinping grows more powerful, Singapore finds itself in a tenuousposition.
"If anyone can dothis balancing act, Singaporecan," Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King's CollegeLondon, told CNN.
"IfSingaporecan't, no one can."

但是,随着美国新一任总统唐纳德·特朗普注意力的游移和中国的实力与日俱增,新加坡发现自己已处在一个进退两难的处境。
“如果别人能平衡这种系,新加坡也能。如果连新加坡都做不到,那么,谁也做不到。”剑桥大学国王学院的刘氏中国研究所的主任克里·布朗说。

In 2015, China's Xi demonstrated how highly Singapore sat in Beijing'sestimation when he held a landmark meeting with then President of Taiwan MaYing-jeou in the city.

2015年,当中国大陆和台湾总统马英九会见时,也凸显出了新加坡的重要性。

The mouse who roared
Just seven years ago itseemed like Singapore'spath was stable and secure.
"Weare in Asia; Asia is booming," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an interview in 2010.
"China is a big story and a major trading partnerfor us, but China is not thewhole story ... Americaplays a role in Asia which Chinacannot replace, and nobody can replace."

咆哮的老鼠
就在7年之前,新加坡在中美之间搞平衡的战略仍显得游刃有余。“我们是亚洲国家,亚洲正欣欣向荣”,总理李显龙在2010年接受采访时说,“中国是个大国,也是我们的主要贸易伙伴,但我们还要和中国以外的国家打交道......。美国在亚洲起着中国不可代替的作用,任何国家都无法取代美国。

Singapore, which marksits National Day August 9, is politically and geographically unique. The South East Asiannation, which is home to a majority ethnic Chinese population, is the onlycountry in the world to have both English and Mandarin among its officiallanguages.
Witha population of five million, the Lion City is also a international financialhub and a fiercely free market.

新加坡的国庆日在8月9日,不论政治意义上还是地理意义上都显得非常独特。这个以华人为主的东南亚国家有500万人口,是世界上唯一把英语和汉语都作为官方语言的国家。狮城还是个是国际金融中心,一个高度自由的市场。

As its neighbors havesuccumbed to successive waves of political and financial turmoil, Singaporehas remained prosperous and stable."It's a bridge between the West and theEast," Wang Yiwei, professor at the School of International  Studies at the Renmin University of China said.

当它的邻国纷纷陷入连绵不断政治动荡或者财政危机时,新加坡仍然保持着繁荣与稳定。中国人民大学国际研究学院的教授王义伟说,“新加坡是东西方的桥梁。”

Singapore sits on one of theworld's most valuable trade routes, the Straits of Malacca, through which a huge portion of Asia's oil flowsevery day. The formerBritish colony is today one of the one of the richest countries in the world, in terms of GDP per capita.

新加坡新于马六海海浃―――世界上最宝贵的贸易线,油轮每天在此穿梭,源源不断地把原油运往亚洲。这个曾经的英国殖民地成为全球人均GDP最高的国家之一。

In 2015, hundreds ofbillions of dollars in exports and imports poured through Singapore's teeming waterways, consistently the second busiest container portin the world after Shanghai.
Politically, Singaporeregularly punches above its weight. The city state was a founding member ofASEAN, the powerful grouping of south-east Asian nations including Indonesia and the Philippines, and since 2010 has often been invited to participatein G20 events.
CNNcontacted Singapore'sForeign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan for this story but he didn't respond to arequest for comment.

2015年,价值几千亿美元的进出口商品经过这个黄金水道,新加坡也成为仅次于上海的全球第2繁忙的集装箱海港。
新加坡在政治上的影响力高于它的经济实力,它是东盟的创始国之一。东盟是由包括印度尼西亚和菲律滨在内的东南亚国家组成的。它的影响力很大,自2010年以来,国际上经常有邀请东盟参加20国集团会议的声音。CNN的记者就此事联系到了新加坡的外交部长维文·巴拉科瑞斯南,但他对此不作评论。

Powerful friends
The country's powerdoesn't just come from its wealth but also from the powerful friendships it hasmade with the world's two largest superpowers.

新加坡的强大的影响力不仅仅因为它有坚实的经济基础,更是因为它和世界上两个超级大国都保持着良好的友谊。

Singapore has close historic andmilitary ties to the United States,forged during the Cold War when former leader Lee Kuan Yew took a firm standagainst communism in South East Asia.
"Whenthe United States wasfighting the Vietnam war, Singaporeoffered a place for US troops to come for their vacation, sometimes dock theirships and refuel their aircraft," Chong Ja Ian, associate professor atNational University of Singapore's Department of Political Science, said.

新加坡长期以来就和美国建立了紧密的军事联系,早在冷战期间,前总理李光耀就站在坚定的反共产主义的立场上。“越战时,新加坡为美国参战士兵提供休假的地方,也同意美国的军舰停靠,补充燃料。”
新加坡加立大学政治科学系的助理教授庄乔恩说。

Today, it hosts a US air and naval presence, including the Littoral Combat ship USSCoronado, and more than 1,000 active duty and civilian personnel,who provide repairs and resupply to members of the US's 7th Fleet.

直至现在,美国的空军,海军仍然驻扎在新加坡,包括滨海战斗舰科罗拉多号,1000多名现役军人及为第七舰队提供维护及给养的后勤人员。

USPresident Donald Trump and Singapore Prime Minister Lee meet at the G20 Summitin Germany, July 8.

美国总统特郞普在8月份德国举行的20国峰会上与新加坡总理李显龙会谈

Despite Lee's firmstance against communism, Singaporewas also quick to embrace Chinaonce it began to open up economically in the 1980s under then-paramount leaderDeng Xiaoping.
"Singaporeseized the opportunity for working with the Chinese ... in terms of friendshipit blossomed very quickly, not just because of of the economic opportunitiesbut linguistic similarities that made it a bit easier for them to enter theChinese market earlier," Chong said.

虽然李光耀坚守顽固的反共立场,一旦中国在上世纪80年代在邓小平的领导下进行经济上的改革开放,新加坡马上转身投向中国。“新加坡抓住了和中国共同发展的机会,两国友谊之所以迅速升温,不单单因为共同的经济机会,也因为相近的语言,这使得新加坡领先一步进入中国市场。”庄乔恩说

The tactic paid off:China and the United States are today two of Singapore's largest tradingpartners, according to UN numbers. A full quarter of Singapore's exports, about $60 billion, aredestined for China and HongKong while $30 billion of its imports flood in from the United States.
Wangsaid Singapore is also animportant hub for two of China'smajor political and economic initiatives in the region -- the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Xi's One Belt One Road global investment strategy.

新加坡的平衡战略得到了丰厚的回报。中国和美国成了新加坡最大的两个贸易伙伴。根据联合国提供的数字,约600亿的出口量,超过全国的四分之一,出口到中国和香港地区,同时从美国的进口量超过300亿美元。亚洲基础建设投资银行和中国的一带一路计划是中国基于政治和经济考虑的两大战略举措,而新加坡也恰恰在这两个战略中都起举足轻重的作用。

"It's very natural... Singapore is a veryimportant international trade and finance center not only in China but also for other countries(in the region)," he said.

“这是很自然的……在国际贸易和金融方面,新加坡不但对中国来说很重要,对地区的其他地区也一样重要。” 他说

But in the past year,amid the rise of both Trump and an assertive Beijing, Singapore'sposition has become less simple.

但在过去几年,随着特朗普起崛起和北京更加自信果敢,新加坡的地位显得十分微妙。

"China sees Singaporeas being too close to Americaand there's a sense in which that's correct," said Michael Barr, associateprofessor of International Relations at Adelaide'sFlinders University and author of "TheRuling Elite of Singapore."

“中国觉得新加坡和美国走得太近了,虽然新加坡觉得自己有理由这样做。”巴尔说。巴尔是阿德莱德弗莱德大学国际关系学院的助理教授,也是《新加坡政治精英》的作者。

Barr said Singapore is uncomfortable with theunpredictability of President Trump, whose country the Lion Statestill relies heavily on for their ongoing security. "This is theirdilemma. There is not a lot they can do about pulling back from America ... (but) they know full well that inthe long term they have to orient towards China," he said.

巴尔说,新加坡对摇摆不定特朗普总统的感到担忧,因为新加坡的防务太依赖美国了。“这就是新加坡的困境,它没有什么好的手段把美国带回亚洲。不过新加坡也明白,从长远看,新加坡必须把目光转向东方,转向中国。”

'Cranky bear in a smallcave'

小洞穴里的大怪熊

As with so muchpolitical wrangling in South East Asia, Singapore's problems began with theSouth China Sea.Relations between Singaporeand Chinacertainly haven't always been smooth. At an ASEAN meeting in Vietnam in 2010, incensed by discussions overthe South China Sea, then-China foreignminister Yang Jiechi issued a warning to the Singaporeanminister in attendance.
"Chinais a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just afact," he said to the crowded room.

随着东南亚纠绕不清的政治问题的升温,新加坡的麻烦也从南中国海开始了。其实中新两国的关系从来没有风平浪静过。在2010年的东盟会议上,因为讨论南中国海问题,两国的关系一度紧张,当时中国的外交部长杨洁箎公开警告与会的新加坡外交部长说“中国是个大国,其他国家是个小国,这是一个事实”。

Six years later, Singapore urged Chinato abide by a UN arbitration on the South China Sea, which was originally filed by the Philippines despite huge protests from Beijing.
China immediately plungedrelations with Singaporeinto a deep chill.

六年以后,新加坡不顾中国的强烈反对,敦促中国遵守由菲律滨提申诉的,联合国关于南中国海的仲裁决定。中国马上把两国关系降到冰点。

In November 2016, nineof Singapore's armored troopcarriers were impounded for two months in Hong Kong on their way back from Taiwan. It waswidely seen as a slap on the wrist by Chineseauthorities.

2016年11月,9辆新加坡装甲车从台湾回归路经香港时,被中国扣留长达两个月之久。这事被视作新加坡被中国公开打脸。

While in May 2017, Singapore'sPrime Minister Lee was conspicuously absent from China's One Belt One Road Forum in Beijing,despite being an early supporter of the initiative.

2017年5月,新加坡总理高调缺席北京举行的一带一路论坛,尽管它曾经这个倡议的最早的支持者。

Singapore's relations with China appear tohave since begun to improve. Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang has accepted an invitation to visit thecity state andPresident Xi had a friendly chat withSingapore's leader on the sidelines of the G20 in July.

后来,随着中国总理李克强接受访问新加坡的邀请与及中国与新加坡领导人在7月份的20国集团峰会期间的友好会谈,两国关系似乎有改善的信号。

But the freeze showed Chinais fully willing to exercise its ever-growing regional and international poweragainst countries who go against its interests.

但是,这次两国之间的摩擦表明,中国乐于利用其日益增长的地区和全球影响力来对损害其利益的国家施压。

"China has reached the stage ... where they feelthat they can dictate to smaller powers the relationship they will have with China, and if they wish to exercise levels ofindependence then Chinawill decide how far they can go," Barr said. "It will be more and more like living with a cranky bear ina small cave."

巴尔说,“中国认为它已经强大到可以决定与小国的亲疏远近关系的地步,如果某个小国表现出一定的独立倾向,中国有权决定这个小国能走多远。对小国来说,和中国相处,就像在一个窄小的洞穴里和一只脾气古怪的黑熊和生活在一起一样,”

The age of Trump
In the past, Singapore's strong security alliance with the United Stateshelped temper concerns regarding China.But that's no longer the case. "Noone (in Asia) really knows what's happening in Washington," explained Brown. "Singaporeare very aware they can't make any assumptions now, their assumption for thepast 50 years is that keep close to the Americans no matter what. But now thebig boys are acting in a very unpredictable way."The new US presidenthasn't visited the Lion State but his Secretary of Defense James Mattis swungby in June for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue Asian Security Summit.

特朗普时代
过去,新加坡因为和美国有牢固的同盟关系而不用太担心中国的“脾气”。”是现在情况不一样了,亚洲国家不知道华盛顿下一步会怎么走。” 布朗说,“新加坡很清楚地知道,它没有能力作出准确的预测, 过去的50年的做法是唯美国马首是瞻。但是现在,美国的政策充满着不确定性。”美国总统还没有访问过狮城,虽然国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯在一年一度的香格里拉亚洲安全峰会中到访过新加坡。

"Once we'veexhausted all possible alternatives, the Americans will do the right thing. Wewill still be there," he said, pledging to stand by Washington'sallies in Asia.But experts havequestioned whether the Obama Administration'shighly publicized pivot to Asia would survive under PresidentTrump.

马蒂斯说,“如果有必要,美国会作出正确的选择。我们就在这(亚洲),我们承诺会支持亚洲的盟友。”但是专家们质疑:特朗普是否延续奥巴马时代高调宣称的“转向亚洲”的政策。

There may also be starkpolicy disagreements between the two countries, on a topic they were previouslyin lockstep.Singapore is one of the world's staunchest defenders of the freetrade, because without it the tiny city-state would not be able to exist.

美新两国对某些曾经高度一致的政策也出现了一些分歧。新加坡是贸易自由化的最坚定的支持者之一,没有贸易自由,这个城市国家将繁荣不再。

Trump has promised an"America First" trade policy, more focused on one-on-one trade deals and possibletariffs, as well as raising the question of embargoes against China."Trumpon his own has the capacity to take away any good and sensible reason for Singapore and most of Asia to maintain relationswith the US,"Barr said."If he seriously goes down the path of closing down free trade,putting up obstacles, being an unreliable ally ... I can see not just Singapore but the whole of South East Asialining up with China."

而特朗普却奉行“美国优先”的贸易政策,它更加倾向于一对一地和他国签订贸易或关税协定,也乐衷于提高中国的进出口门槛。巴尔说:“如果特朗普继续为自由贸易设置障碍,成为一个不可靠的盟友,那么,不仅仅是新加坡,而且是整个东南亚都会转身拥抱中国。”

'Singapore is not unique'
Singapore is not alone inconsidering what Asia's future will look like with a dominant China and an inward-looking United States."Philippines, Malaysia,all across the region there's been a real push (by Beijing)," Brown said. "Singapore is not unique, it's just because Singapore'sbeen so adept at balancing (both sides)."

新加坡,菲律滨,马来西亚及整个地区都面临着相同的问题,即面对一个控制力越来越强的中国和一个似乎越来越内向的美国,亚洲将何去何从?布朗说,“不仅仅新加坡面临这一问题,只不过新加坡过去擅长搞平衡战略。”

One of the first signsof a closer relationship between Singaporeand Beijing would be any changes to their military exercises withTaiwan, a sensitivetopic between the two countries, as China views it as a breakawayprovince.

新加坡和中国的关系(是否)加深的的信号之一是新加坡与台湾的军事关系是否发生变化。新加坡与台湾的军事关系是中新之间的敏感话题,因为中国把台湾视作一个有分离倾向的省份。

Singapore's famous Merlion (C) infront of the city's skyline in February, 2015.
"I think there isan awareness that at the end of the day the relationship with China is somuch more important than anything else, in terms of economics, so they mightthink of this as something of a tradeoff," Brown said.

布朗说,“我认为,新加破已经意识到,从经济意义上讲,总有一天中国将会比任何国家都重要。所以,新加坡可以把它(新台军事合作关系)当作一个筹码。”

But already Singapore'srhetoric has begun to change. In his Singapore National Day speech in 2016,Prime Minister Lee's language had come a long way from his 2010 interview,where he said China couldnever replace the US."Weare friends with both America and with China ... Both believe the Pacific isvast enough to accommodate both powers and President Xi said recently thatAmerica and China should "cultivate common circles of friends," he told his countrymen.
"Thatis precisely what Singapore'strying to do."

2010的新加坡国庆致辞中李显龙曾经说过:中国永远不能取代美国。不过现在,新加坡的语气已经发生了变化。在2016年新加坡的国庆日演讲中,这样对他的国民说: “我们和美国,中国都是朋友,……,中美两国都相信太平洋足够大,可以容纳两个大国,并且中国最近也说中美要培养和扩大共同的朋友圈,这也是新加坡正在努力做的。”

 
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