关于2017年中国经济的共识为何如此错误的5个原因

12-25 37 16480 神刀
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Five reasons why the consensus reading of China’s 2017 economy was so wrong

关于2017年中国经济的共识为何如此错误的5个原因



This year has turned out to be one of positive macroeconomic surprises. The global economy grew at its strongest and most synchronised pace in years, with benign inflation keeping central banks at ease. Financial markets were sheered by fading political risks in Europe and reduced protectionism concerns from the US.

今年是宏观经济的一个积极惊喜。全球经济以多年来最强劲和最同步的速度增长,温和的通货膨胀使中央银行保持了平稳。欧洲的政治风险逐渐消退,美国的贸易保护主义担忧减少,金融市场也因此受到影响。

While geopolitical tensions in North Korea and Catalonia’s declaration of independence have, at times, dominated news headlines, these were mostly sideshows that were readily shrugged off by investors. With no major hiccups in the coming weeks, the global economy is on track to deliver their best performance in seven years.

尽管朝鲜和加泰罗尼亚独立宣言的地缘政治紧张局势有时占据新闻头条,但这些大多是小插曲,这些都被投资者轻易地忽略了。在未来几周内,全球经济不会出现重大问题,全球经济有望达到七年以来的最佳表现。

Closer to home, the remarkable turnaround in China has been a big surprise to many. Contrary to intense hard-landing concerns that had led to equity and credit market sell-offs, the renminbi’s depreciation and massive capital outflows in the last two years, 2017 has turned out to be a year of redemption, with stellar performance in many Chinese markets that blew away even the wildest expectations.

在中国国内,中国经济的显著好转令许多人感到意外。与此前引发股市和信贷市场抛售的强烈硬着陆担忧相反,在过去两年里,人民币的贬值和大规模资本外流,最终变成了“救赎之年”。在许多中国市场,即便是最疯狂的预期,也表现出了出色的表现。

Take equities as an example; the MSCI China Index has surged by a whopping 52 per cent year-to-date, on track to be the best performing market globally.

以股票为例;摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数今年迄今已大幅飙升52%,有望成为全球表现最好的市场。

The renminbi has appreciated by 5.1 per cent onshore (CNY) and 5.4 per cent offshore (CNH) against the US dollar, a result that no one would have considered possible 12 months ago. Even capital outflows, which were feared of leading China to an impending crisis, have eased off markedly, leading to a rebound in China’s foreign exchange reserves to above US$3.1 trillion.

人民币兑美元汇率已升值5.1%,离岸人民币(CNH)为5.4%,这一结果在12个月前还没有人考虑过。即使是资本外流,也曾令中国面临一场迫在眉睫的危机,但已明显放缓,导致中国外汇储备反弹至3.1万亿美元以上。

These dramatic shifts in asset prices and investor sentiment have made China, in our view, the biggest macro surprise of all in 2017.

在我们看来,资产价格和投资者情绪的剧烈变化,使中国在2017年成为最大的宏观经济意外。



What was behind all these surprises that caught the consensus on the wrong foot in such a massive scale?

在如此大规模的情况下,所有这些令人惊讶的事情背后,究竟是什么原因导致了人们对错误的看法?

The gross domestic product (GDP) is not the answer. The Chinese economy grew by an average rate of 6.9 per cent in the first three quarters, and is set to end the year at 6.8 per cent. A marginal – one tenth of a percentage point – acceleration from last year’s 6.7 per cent is clearly not enough to drive such a turnaround in financial markets.

国内生产总值(GDP)并不是答案。中国经济年均增长6.9%的速度在前三个季度,定于今年年底为6.8%。1/10个百分点-去年6.7%的增速显然不足以推动金融市场出现如此大的转变。

Neither does external influence matter much for China, given its strictly controlled capital account has historically limited correlated movements between local and international markets.

对中国来说,外部影响也不重要,因为中国严格控制的资本账户在历史上限制了地方和国际市场之间的相关活动。

The answer, instead, lies in the policy surprises from Beijing. We discuss five key policies here, as parts of President Xi Jinping’s supply-side reforms, that have had profound impact on China’s economic rebalancing and rejuvenating markets:

相反,答案在于北京方面的政策意外。作为中国的供给侧改革的一部分,我们在这里讨论了5项关键政策,这些政策对中国经济的再平衡和市场复苏产生了深远的影响:

Overcapacity reduction was ranked top on the agenda when Xi introduced supply-side reforms in late 2015. A diligent implementation of the policy has led to a substantial reduction in steel and coal capacities in the last two years. These reductions have subsequently bolstered industrial prices, turning around the Producer Price Index (PPI) from deeply entrenched deflation. Combined with policies to cut costs via fiscal and credit means, industrial profits rebounded strongly, providing a fundamental support for the equity market rally this year.

在2015年末,中国提出供给侧改革时,将产能过剩列为首要议题。在过去的两年里,大力推行这一政策已导致钢铁和煤炭产能大幅下降。这些削减随后支撑了工业价格,使生产者价格指数(PPI)从根深蒂固的通缩转向。与通过财政和信贷手段削减成本的政策相结合,工业利润强劲反弹,为今年股市反弹提供了基本支持。

A reduction in property market’s stockpile had been carried out forcefully since 2015 against a backdrop of record-high housing inventory. The monetised subsidy scheme, as part of the shanty town renovation, helped to revive the market in third-tier and fourth-tier cities. For the economy, the housing recovery was important in lifting growth across the real estate supply chain, which ranges from raw material production, construction, to real estate services and retail sales of household appliances. For the market, commodity prices were boosted by higher construction demand, while improved balance sheets of developers were supportive of property stocks and credits.

?自2015年以来,房地产市场库存的大幅减少是在创纪录的住房库存的背景下进行的。作为棚户区改造的一部分,货币化补贴计划帮助重振了三线和四线城市的市场。对于经济而言,房地产市场的复苏对于推动房地产供应链的增长至关重要。房地产供应链包括原材料生产、建筑、房地产服务和家电零售。对市场而言,大宗商品价格受到了建筑需求上升的推动,而开发商的资产负债状况改善,有利于房地产股票和信贷。



Financial deleveraging started in the third quarter of 2016, and has gained further momentum this year to the surprise of markets. Many had thought the action of the People’s Bank of China to “de-risk” the interbank market was one-off, and would be called off in a year of leadership transition when stability is treated as a priority. As it turned out, not only did the deleveraging campaign continue in earnest, the scope was also broadened to cover a wider range of activities. The recently announced new regulations for the asset management industry suggests that tight financial conditions for shadow banking and risky borrowers will be long-lasting, keeping interest rates elevated and bond market volatile going forward.

金融去杠杆化始于2016年第三季度,并在今年获得了进一步的动力,令市场感到意外。许多人曾认为,中国央行(pboc)采取的“去风险”银行间市场的行动是一次性的,在稳定被视为优先考虑的情况下,将在一年的领导层换届中被取消。结果是,不仅去杠杆化的活动继续进行,而且范围也扩大,以涵盖更广泛的活动范围。最近公布的资产管理行业新规表明,影子银行和高风险借款人的财务状况将会持续很长时间,这将使利率维持在高位,债券市场也会出现动荡。

Environmental protection was the latest move by Beijing to transform China’s development model to be more environmentally sustainable. Significant production curbs in heavy-polluting sectors have weighed on industrial output and fixed asset investment. At the same time, investment in clean and renewable energy has accelerated. These differentiating impacts should help to rebalance the economy, and drive diverged price actions between green and non-green sectors of the market.

环境保护是北京方面最新的举措,旨在改变中国的发展模式,使其更环保。重污染行业的重大生产限制,已拖累了工业产出和固定资产投资。与此同时,对清洁和可再生能源的投资也在加快。这些不同的影响应该有助于推动经济的再平衡,推动市场中绿色和非绿色部门之间的价格差异。

These policy actions, to the degree that few had considered possible, were the key reasons why the consensus estimates on China’s 2017 economy had been so wrong.

这些政策行动,达到了几乎没有人认为可能的程度,是人们普遍认为中国2017年经济状况如此糟糕的主要原因。

The question for investors is whether these policy-induced market actions and economic rebalancing will continue in 2018. Stay tuned for our final update of this column for 2017.

投资者的问题是,这些政策诱导的市场行为和经济再平衡是否会在2018年继续。请继续关注2017年本专栏的最后更新。

 
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原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:神刀 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-465684-1-1.html

Xactly
First, it was the 2008 financial tsunami that hit the world by surprise. Then it is the Chinese economic "hard landing", predicted by many in the West.
.
Well, there was no financial tsunami in China, and there certainly was no hard landing for China as well. The Fact is, unlike Japan, China is back in maintaining strong and stead growth again.
.
What does it tell you? It tells you that only the CPC could deliver such an impossible result with its exceptional execution power, no other political party in this world is able to accomplish such a near-impossible feat.

首先,2008年的金融海啸震惊了世界。然后是中国经济的“硬着陆”,许多西方国家都这么预测。
嗯,结果中国没有金融海啸,中国也没有硬着陆。事实是,与日本不同的是,中国再次保持了强劲的经济增长。
它告诉你什么?它告诉你,只有中国才能用其非凡的执行力来实现这样一个不可能的结果,在这个世界上,没有任何一个政党能够做到这一近乎不可能的壮举。

shaduck007@******
China's economy did have a flash 2008-09 correction, marked by 12/08 stimulus & 09 inflation

中国经济2008-09年确实出现了回转,以12/08的刺激和09年的通货膨胀为标志。

Ni_Hao_Wu_Mao
It’s ostensibly “strong and steadily” because there’s such little transparently in China. In the West, there are proper checks and balances on power, so the figures come from independent organisations. In China, it comes from the CPC and we all know how well they can be trusted..
XACTLY, it’s not difficult to lift people out of poverty when you’re starting from such a low bar when many Chinese had to live like animals during the Cultutal Revolution (of which the CPC still hasn’t apologised for by the way.)

它表面上是“强大而稳定的”,因为在中国,这种透明的东西是透明的。在西方,权力有适当的制衡机制,因此这些数据来自独立机构。在中国,它来自中国,我们都知道他们是多么值得信任。

XACTLY,当你从这么低的门槛起步时,让人们摆脱贫困并不难,因为很多中国人在“文化大革命”期间不得不像动物一样生活(中国至今还没有为此道歉)。

Ni_Hao_Wu_Mao
Chinese are only good at copying, not creating. Long term, the Chinese economy is doomed to fail.

中国人只擅长抄袭,而不是创造。长期来看,中国经济注定要失败。

shaduck007@******
"Chinese are only good at copying, not creating. Long term, the Chinese economy is doomed to fail."
What malarkey!
China, as with Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, even HK 1st copied, lifting hundreds of millions from poverty, than created & innovates!

“中国人只擅长复制,而不是创造。”从长远来看,中国经济注定会失败。” 胡说什么!
中国,和日本、韩国、台湾、新加坡、甚至香港一样,都曾抄袭过,使亿万人民摆脱了贫困,而不是创造和创新!

Xactly
How "long term" did you mean by "long term"? Another 5,000 years? Are you an economic expert or a fortune teller?

“长期”是指什么?再过5000年?你是经济专家还是算命先生?

yukelvin_hk@******
Unfortunately, neither an economic expert or fortune teller. Just another anti-Chinese moron.

不幸的是,他既不是经济专家,也不是算命先生。只是一个反华白痴。

Ni_Hao_Wu_Mao
Alas, I’m not a fortune teller thus making it difficult to predict when the CPC will collapse. Silicon Valley was not created by a top-down approach as espoused by the CPC, but entrepreneurs living a free environment.

Alas, 我不是一个算命先生,因此很难预测中国何时会崩溃。硅谷不是由中国推崇的自上而下的方式创造的,而是生活在自由环境中的企业家创造的。

aa
This same line has been repeated by the west for the last 20 years, and you have been proven wrong time and time again.

在过去的20年里,西方一直在重复同样的套路,而你又一次被证明是错误的。

Ni_Hao_Wu_Mao
Name one thing China has contributed in the past 20 years apart from sweatshop style slave labour. China has contributed nothing to the modern world.

在过去的20年里,除了血汗工厂式的奴隶劳动之外,中国没贡献。中国对现代世界没有任何贡献。

 
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