中国真的是世界第二大经济体吗?

01-06 67 33237 凌云朵朵
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Is China really the worlds 2nd largest economy?

中国真的是世界第二大经济体吗?

 
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George Tait Edwards, P.h.D. Integration of Shimomuran With Wernerian Macroeconomics, University of Southampton (2020)
1 China is the largest economy in the world at GDP PPP $2016 prices
China is by far the largest economy in the world according to the CIA World Factbook (see Central Intelligence Agency which lists the size of economies at the most relevant index of economic strength, at Purchasing Power Parities [PPP). The United States is the third largest world economy, behind that of the EU at present, although when the UK leaves the EU the USA will become the second largest economy in real terms.
I am continually surprised by the misleading information produced on this topic by people whose major source of information is either the Western media (who usually have a West-is-best agenda) or Washington-based US-dominated organisations who use Exchange Rate Values (ERV) in order to show the USA as being much larger economically than it now is at PPP.

George Tait Edwards, 博士 南安普顿大学(2020)  将Shimomuran经济学与Wernerian宏观经济学的整合
1、按2016年GDP购买力平价计算,中国是世界上最大的经济体。
根据中央情报局(CIA)的《世界概况》(CIA world Factbook),中国是世界上最大的经济体(参见中央情报局,它列出了各大经济体的规模,【基于购买力平价计算】)。美国是世界第三大经济体,仅次于欧盟,尽管英国退出欧盟后,美国将成为世界第二大经济体。
我对这一主题所产生的误导性信息感到惊讶,这些信息的主要来源要么是西方媒体(通常是西方媒体最好的议题),要么是总部位于华盛顿的以美国为主导的机构,它们使用汇率价值(ERV),为了表明美国在经济上比现在(PPP 购买力平价)要大得多。

2 The CIA World Facebook Source of Data
Fortunately the CIA World Factbook (excellent in its data, doubtful its Washington-Consensus economic opinions) provides a useful corrective to these misleading commentators. PPP GDP provides by far the best comparative data of the productive power of each economy. By totalling the value of all goods and services produced at the same dollar purchasing prices, a “best estimate” of the comparative economic strength of a country and a most valid comparison of incomes per head can be made and other relevant comparisons arrived at. National governments can set the exchange rate very low in order to achieve a trading advantage and PPP calculations correct that major form of economic distortion by comparing goods and services outputs at the same prices.

2、《CIA世界概况》资料数据
幸运的是,中央情报局的世界事实书(它的数据很出色,质疑它的华盛顿共识的经济观点),为这些误导性的评论人士提供了有效的纠正。购买力平价(PPP)GDP提供了迄今为止各经济体生产能力的最佳对比数据。通过将同一美元购买价格所产生的所有商品和服务的价值合计起来,对一个国家的比较经济实力进行“最佳估计”,并对人均收入进行最有效的比较,并得出其他有关的比较。各国政府可以把汇率设置得非常低,以达到贸易优势,购买力平价计算通过比较商品和服务产出以相同价格进行比较,纠正了这种主要形式的经济扭曲。

3 National Income Data
Here’s my table of the CIA-data derived data on the relative sizes of the largest 20 economies at $2016 trillion at the misleading ERV estimate and at the Purchasing Power Parity estimates (ERV is in Column 2, PPP in Column 3):

3、国民收入数据
以下是我从CIA数据推导出来的关于全球最大的20个万亿美元经济体的相关数据的表格,这些数据来自于具有误导性的ERV估算以及购买力平价估算(ERV在第2列,PPP第3列):

4 Commentary on this data
The Chinese yuan is extremely undervalued. That’s why China has an ERV estimate of its outputs which is only a bit more than half of the productive power of its economy at PPP. China is by far the largest economy in the world, with a PPP GDP in 2016 of $21.14 trillion, about $2.58 trillion ahead of the USA. Furthermore, the Chinese Economy has an industrial sector which is producing in $2016 an output of about $8.41 tr, over twice that of the USA which is at $3.6tr. China’s industry is slightly smaller than that of the (USA plus the EU) and on current growth trends will be larger than both of these in 2017.
Furthermore, China due to its practical understanding and practice of Shimomuran no-cost investment credit creation now has “Gross National Savings” of 46% of GDP (of which I estimate about 25% of GDP is created no-cost credit) and is investing 43.75% of GDP in fixed capital. About a third of that is in infrastructure, which has no quick returns, so the real rate of investment in industrial plant and equipment is probably about 30% of GDP and their underlying equipment-output ratio would be (30/6.7) or about 4.5, very similar to Japan’s when their economy was at similar levels of income per head.

4、对这一数据的评论
人民币被极度低估。这就是为什么中国对其产出有一个ERV估计值——按购买力平价计算,这仅仅是其经济生产力的一半多一点。中国是目前世界上最大的经济体,2016的PPP-GDP为21.41万亿美元,比美国高出2.58万亿美元。此外,中国经济有一个工业部门,2016年产值约为8.41万亿美元,是美国(3.6万亿美元)的两倍多。中国的工业规模略小于(美国+欧盟)的规模,就目前的增长趋势而言,2017中国的增长趋势将比这两者都大。
此外,中国现在的“国民储蓄总额”占GDP的46%,并将GDP的43.75%投资于固定资产,其中约三分之一是基础设施,没有快速回报,因此,工业厂房和设备的实际投资比例可能约为GDP的30%,其基础设备产出比率将为(30/6.7)或4.5左右,与日本的经济状况类似,那时他们的经济水平与人均收入水平相当。

5 The USA in Past Years and the Future Of China
The United States of America was once the greatest industrial power in the world, thanks to FDR’s economic miracle from 1938–44, when the size of its economy doubled due to the use of no-cost investment credit creation at he FED, just like China is doing now with the People’s Bank of China. The USA was the largest economy in the world from 1945 until about 2010. For more information about this see
How powerful can the US economy potentially be?
The most significant observation in that Answer was perhaps at para 5.1
“Low US economic growth during the post-war period is an American self-inflicted injury.”
and it remains to be seen if Trump or some subsequent President will climb partly to the economic competence of FDR and remedy that.

5、过去的几年的美国以及中国的未来
美国曾经是世界上最大的工业强国,这要归功于罗斯福1938-44年的经济奇迹,从1938年到1944年,美国经济规模翻了一番,原因是他使用了不花钱的投资信贷,就像现在的中国和中国人民银行一样。从1945年到2010年,美国是世界上最大的经济体。
有关此问题的更多信息请参见
【链接:美国经济有多大的潜力?】

在这一答案中,最重要的观察可能是在段落5.1
“战后美国经济增长低迷是美国自己造成的伤害。”
而特朗普或随后的某个总统是否会在一定程度上提升到罗斯福的经济能力,并对此加以补救,还有待观察。

6 Other Observations
I could write a book about the implications of most of the data in the above table, but restricting myself to a few lines about the largest ten economies in the world:
1 China is going to continue creating no-cost investment credit and growing very rapidly as far ahead as we can see, and China will become by far the most important culture, economy, and society in the world: see
China’s All-Inclusive Economic Miracle: The Third Economic Bomb
2 The EU is faltering despite and because of Germany’s dominance of the EU (which is is due to its excellent Sparkassen public banking system which Angela Merkel does not seem to understand) and could break up due to its lack of the relevant economic understanding: See the so-far-failed start-up of such a system in Greece and in Ireland
3 The USA needs to understand and adopt Shimomuran Economics and to abandon the Washington Consensus macroeconomics which has failed its people and the rest of the world since 1980;
4 India is now doing well after the demonetisation of high-value Rupee notes but it remains to be seen if the higher bank deposits will continue partially to fund higher investment and how the informal Indian economy is responding to the challenge
5 Japan is still in the economic doldrums despite Shinzo Abe’s aims and obxtives to recreate a Shimomuran “Japan of Abundant Capital” perhaps mainly because he has not restored the Convoy System
6 Germany has not acted to restore the viability of the failing EU southern states and it will lose its place as a leader in the EU if it doesn’t
7 Russia is doing comparatively well but it has high growth around its major cities but much less in its vast hinterland and that issue needs to be more fully addressed.
8 Brazil is faltering and it still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 Banking Crisis and the collapse of commodity prices. It too should adopt Shimomuran economics.
9 Indonesia could copy the success of the Tokyo Consensus economies by adopting their policies but there is no sign of that yet. The slump in commodity prices and the credit crunch still affects their economy.
10 The United Kingdom has the lowest savings rate, mainly because much of the gains of growth paid to the already rich are transferred to foreign island nominee bank accounts and the 120,000 foreign banks accounts of UK residents, That is unlikely to change so the UK is stuck with inept government and quasi-insoluble problems because the UK Government continues to pursue a wrong policy of austerity.
China is not only the largest economy in the world, it is investing so much that it is also likely to be in that ichibana position for many decades to come.

关于上表中大部分数据的含义,我可以写上一本书,这里我仅写对于世界上最大的十个经济体的看法:
1、中国将继续创造无成本投资信贷,并以我们所能见的速度快速增长,中国将成为目前世界上最重要的文化、经济和社会。参见:《中国广泛的经济奇迹:第三次经济爆炸》
2、欧盟正在蹒跚不前,而且由于德国在欧盟的主导地位(这是由于其优秀的Sparkassen公共银行系统,而默克尔似乎并不理解),由于缺乏相关的经济理解,它可能会解体。
3、美国需要理解和采纳”Shimomuran经济学“,放弃自1980以来就使其人民和世界其他地区失望的“华盛顿共识”宏观经济学;

4、印度在高面值卢比纸币被废除后现在表现良好,但更高的银行存款是否会继续为更高的投资提供资金,以及印度非正式经济如何应对这一挑战,仍有待观察。
5、尽管安倍晋三的目的和目标是重建“富足的日本”,但日本经济仍处于低迷状态,这可能主要是因为他没有恢复“护航体系”。
6、德国没有采取行动恢复失败的欧盟南部国家的生存能力,如果它不这样做,它将失去其作为欧盟领导人的地位。

7、俄罗斯的表现相对较好,它在其主要城市周围有着很高的增长,但在其广阔的腹地却增长很少,这一问题需要得到更充分的解决。
8、巴西步履蹒跚,仍未从2008年银行业危机和大宗商品价格暴跌中恢复过来。它也应该采用“Shimomuran经济学”。
9、印尼可以效仿东京共识经济的成功模式,但目前还没有迹象表明这一点。大宗商品价格的暴跌和信贷紧缩仍然影响着他们的经济。

10、英国的储蓄率最低,主要是因为增长中所带来的大部分收益被转移到外国岛屿的被提名银行账户和英国居民的12万外国银行账户上,这不太可能改变,英国陷入了无能的政府和准-不可解决的问题,因为英国政府继续奉行一个错误的紧缩政策。
中国不仅是世界上最大的经济体,而且投资如此之多,在未来几十年里,它可能也会处于这样的市场地位。

【译注:本文中的“Shimomuran”经济学,Shimomuran指的是什么译者不太清楚,答案是用英语写的,但是参杂了很多日式词汇比如 ichibana(market),Shimomuran,Wernerian,中文互联网也找不到这样的描绘,期待某位精通经济学的大佬能解惑】

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Brian Chi Zhang, Engineer at Atom Tickets
As always, it depends.
By Purchase Power Parity, China is already #1.
By Nominal GDP, China is #2, and will likely become #1 by 2025–2035
By export surplus, China is by far #1
By patents filed per year, China just recently became #1
By happiness? China is nowhere even close to #1, but neither is United States.
By happiness with the government, China is near the very top, US is below average.
But none of these matters if you haven't yet set foot on China. If a direct comparison between USA and China truly intrigues you, a round trip ticket is only $800, why not see for yourself?
I assure you, you will care less about who is No.1 or No.2, rather be astonished by how cool a completely different mindset brings diversity and value to you, to me, and to the entire world.
Let all cultures shine, and have economy take a backseat, even if just for a brief moment.



Brian Chi Zhang(Atom Tickets工程师):
像往常一样,视情况而定。
按购买力平价计算,中国已经排名第一。
按名义GDP计算,中国排名第二,很可能在2025-2035年成为第一。
按出口盈余计算,中国目前排名第一。
按每年提交的专利,中国最近刚刚成为第一名。
按幸福程度计算?中国甚至还没有接近第一,但美国也是如此。
按对政府满意程度,中国接近顶峰,美国低于平均水平。
但如果你还没有涉足中国,这些都不重要。如果美中两国之间的直接比较真的让你感兴趣,那么往返机票只需800美元,为什么不自己看呢?
我向你保证,你不会在意谁是第一还是第二,而是惊讶于一个完全不同的心态给你、我和整个世界带来了多大的差异和价值。
让所有的文化闪耀,让经济退居次要位置,哪怕只是短暂的片刻。

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Arman Siani, Engineer, Entrepreneur, Traveler
Nope. China is the largest economy in the world.
GDP of China at PPP: 21 trillion USD
GDP of USA at PPP: 19 Trillion USD
When you talk about the size of the economy, PPP should be the figure that you look at because it takes account of the price and cost of living differences across coutnries.
So while China’s GDP at nominal exchange rates makes it 2nd largest, at purchasing power parity, its economy is larger than not just the US but also the EU.
The estimates are by IMF and other respectable international organizations and the figures are public information. Just Google it. Wikipedia has the info.

Arman Siani(工程师,企业家,旅行者):
不,中国是世界上最大的经济体。
按购买力平价计算的中国GDP:21万亿美元。
按购买力平价计算的美国GDP:19万亿美元。
当你谈到经济的规模时,购买力平价应该是你所要考虑的数字,因为它考虑到了不同国家的价格和生活成本差异。
因此,尽管以”名义汇率“(Nominal Exchange Rates)计算的中国国内生产总值(GDP)为第二,但按购买力平价计算,中国的经济规模不仅大于美国,还包括欧盟。
这些估计数是由货币基金组织和其他受人尊敬的国际组织估计的,这些数字是公共信息,你只要google就行了,维基百科也有这方面的信息。

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Erik Hille, M.S. Economics, Southern Methodist University (2014)
There are two schools of thought on how to compare GDP:
Currency Exchange Rate GDP. Were we to try to purchase goods on the international market using currency exchange rate, how much USD would we have to buy things. List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wiki
PPP (Purchasing Price Parity) GDP. For the country as residents how big is the total basket of good that we can consume. List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wiki
Non transportable services — labor cost/income being the component that causes much of the difference between exchange rate and PPP comparisons.
However the other way to look at this is per person how much do they have — per capita. There Qatar rules all lists-estimates.

Erik Hille(南卫理公会大学经济学硕士,2014):
关于如何比较国内生产总值,有两种观点:

货币汇率GDP
如果我们试图在国际市场上购买商品,用货币汇率计算,我们需要购买多少美元的东西。
【链接:各国名义GDP列表--维基百科】

购买力平价GDP
对于这个国家来说,作为居民,我们可以消费的商品总量有多大。
【链接:各国(PPP)GDP列表--维基百科】

非运输服务-劳动成本/收入是造成汇率和购买力平价比较的主要因素。
然而,另一种看待这个问题的方法是,人均拥有多少,这样计算的话,卡塔尔在列表中是最强的。

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Kaye Lee
Yes, it is the largest economy in the world, after the United States. Here is the references that found online and in the library.
News - upxed July 7, 2017 — 10:39 AM EDT
1. United States
The U.S. economy remains the largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP. The $19.42 trillion U.S. economy is 25% of the gross world product. The United States is an economic superpower that is highly advanced in terms of technology and infrastructure and has abundant natural resources. However, the U.S. economy loses its spot as the number one economy to China when measured in terms of GDP based on PPP. In these terms, China’s GDP is $23.19 trillion exceeds the U.S. GDP of $19.42 trillion. However, the U.S. is way ahead of China in terms of GDP per capita in nominal terms as well as PPP; GDP per capita (PPP) for the U.S. economy is approximately $59,609 versus $16,676 in China. In nominal terms, China’s GDP per capita further falls to $8,480.

2. China
China has transformed itself from a centrally-planned closed economy in the 1970s to a manufacturing and exporting hub over the years. Since it initiated market reforms in 1978, the Asian giant has achieved economic growth averaging 10% annually (though it’s slowed recently) and, in the process, lifted almost half of its 1.3 billion population out of poverty and become the undisputed second-largest economy on Earth. The Chinese economy has already overtaken the U.S. economy in terms of GDP, based on another measure known as purchasing power parity (PPP), and is estimated to pull ahead of the U.S. steadily in the following years. However, the difference between the economies in terms of nominal GDP remains large with China's $11.8 trillion economy. The Chinese economy has long been known for its strong growth, a growth of over 7% even in recent years. However, the country saw its total GDP growth go down to 6.7% in 2016 and is projected to slow to 6.6% in 2017, and further decline to 5.7% by 2022. The country's economy is propelled by an equal contribution from manufacturing and services (45% each, approximately) with a 10% contribution by the agricultural sector.
The nominal GDP for the U.S. and China for the year 2022 is estimated at $23.76 trillion and $17.71 trillion respectively, while the GDP in terms of PPP is projected at $23.76 trillion for the U.S. and $34.31 trillion for China.

3. Japan
Japan’s economy currently ranks third in terms of nominal GDP, while it slips to fourth spot when comparing the GDP by purchasing power parity. The economy has been facing hard times since 2008, when it first showed recessionary symptoms. Unconventional stimulus packages combined with subzero bond yields and weak currency have further strained the economy (for related reading, see: Japan's Economy Continues to Challenge Abenomics). Economic growth is once again positive, to about 1% in 2016 and further to around 1.2% in 2017; however, it is forecasted to stay below 1% during the next five years. The nominal GDP of Japan is $4.84 trillion, its GDP (PPP) is $5.42 trillion, and its GDP (PPP) per capita is $42,860.

4. Germany
Germany is Europe’s largest and strongest economy. On the world scale, it now ranks as the fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. Germany’s economy is known for its exports of machinery, vehicles, household equipment, and chemicals. Germany has a skilled labor force, but the economy is facing countless of challenges in the coming years ranging from Brexit to the refugee crisis (for related reading, see: 3 Economical Challenges Germany Faces in 2016). The size of its nominal GDP is $3.42 trillion, while its GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is $4.13 trillion. Germany’s GDP (PPP) per capita is $49,814, and the economy has moved at a moderate pace of 1-2% in recent years and is forecasted to stay that way.
5. United Kingdom
The United Kingdom, with a $2.5 trillion GDP, is currently the world’s fifth largest. Its GDP in terms of PPP is slightly higher at $2.91 trillion while its GDP (PPP) per capita is $44,001. The economy of the UK is primarily driven by services, as the sector contributes more than 75% of the GDP. With agriculture contributing a minimal 1%, manufacturing is the second most important contributor to GDP. Although agriculture is not a major contributor to GDP, 60% of the U.K.’s food needs is produced domestically, even though less than 2% of its labor force is employed in the sector.
After the referendum in June 2016 when voters decided to leave the European unx, economic prospects for the UK are highly uncertain, and the UK and France may swap places. The country will operate under EU regulations and trade agreements for two years after the formal announcement of an exit to the European Council, in which time officials will work on a new trade agreement. Economists have estimated that Brexit could result in a loss of anywhere from 2.2-9.5% of GDP long term, depending on the trade agreements replacing the current single market structure. The IMF, however, projects growth to stay between 1.5-1.9% in the next five years.
6. India
India is the sixth largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $2.45 trillion. The country ranks third in GDP in terms of purchasing power parity at $9.49 trillion. The country’s high population drags its GDP (PPP) per capita down to $1,850. India’s GDP is still highly dependent on agriculture (17%), compared to western countries. However, the services sector has picked up in recent years and now accounts for 57% of the GDP, while industry contributes 26%. The economy’s strength lies in a limited dependence on exports, high saving rates, favorable demographics, and a rising middle class. India recently overtook China as the fastest growing large economy and is expected to jump up to rank fourth on the list by 2022.
7. France
France, the most visited country in the world, is now the seventh largest economies with a nominal GDP of $2.42 trillion. Its GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is around $2.83 trillion. France has a low poverty rate and high standard of living, which is reflected in its GDP (PPP) per capita of $43,652. The country is among the top exporters and importers in the world. France has experienced a slowdown over the past few years and the government is under immense pressure to rekindle the economy, as well as combat high unemployment which stood at 9.6% in Q12017 (a slight drop from 10% in Q42016). According to IMF forecasts the country's GDP growth rate is expected to rise over the next five years, and unemployment is expected to continue to go down.
8. Brazil
With its $2.14 trillion economy, Brazil now ranks as the eight largest economy by nominal GDP. The Brazilian economy has developed services, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, with each sector contributing around 68%, 26%, and 6% respectively. Brazil is one of the BRIC countries, and was projected to continue to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the recession in 2015 caused Brazil to go from seventh to ninth place in the world economies ranking, with a negative growth rate of 3.6% (2016). The IMF expects the economy to grow at 0.2% during 2017, further recovering to 1.7% in 2018 and then to 2% during the next four years. The Brazilian GDP measured in purchasing power parity is $3.22 trillion, while its GDP (PPP) per capita is $15,485.
9. Italy
Italy’s $1.81 trillion economy is the world’s ninth largest in terms of nominal GDP. Italy is among the prominent economies of the Eurozone, but it has been impacted by the debt crisis in the region. The economy suffers from a huge public debt estimated to be about 133% of GDP, and its banking system is close to a collapse and in need of a bailout/bail-in. The economy is also facing high unemployment, but saw a positive economic growth in 2014 (0.1%) for the first time since 2011, which is projected to continue. The government is working on various measures to boost the economy that has contracted in recent years. The GDP measured in purchasing power parity for the economy is estimated at $2.3 trillion, while its per capita GDP (PPP) is $37,905. (See also: The European Banking Crisis Explained (DB))
10. Canada
Canada took over Russia to feature as the tenth largest economy in 2015. It’s $1.6 trillion is expected to touch $1.9 trillion by 2022, maintaining its lead over Russia. Canada has a highly service-oriented economy, and has had solid growth in manufacturing as well as in the oil and petroleum sector since the Second World War. However, the country is very exposed to commodity prices, and the decline in oil prices kept the economic growth under 1% in 2015 (down from 2.6% in 2014). The economy is expected to grow in the range of 1.8-2.0% during 2017-22. The GDP measured in purchasing-power parity is $1.75 trillion, and the GDP per capita (PPP) is $47,771.
The nominal GDP of the top 10 economies adds up to over 68% of the world’s economy, and the top 15 economies add up to about 76%. The remaining 172 countries constitute less than a quarter of the world’s economy.

Kaye Lee:
它是世界上最大的经济体,仅次于美国。以下是网上和图书馆中找到的参考资料。
(更新于2017年7月7日-东部时间10:39)

1、美国
在名义GDP方面,美国经济仍然是世界上最大的经济体。19.42万亿美元的美国经济是世界生产总值的25%。美国是一个经济超级大国,在技术和基础设施方面高度发达,拥有丰富的自然资源。然而,以购买力平价衡量,美国失去了作为第一经济体的地位。在这些方面,中国的GDP是23.19万亿美元,超过美国GDP的19.42万亿美元。然而,不管是按名义GDP和购买力平价GDP,美国在人均GDP方面远远领先于中国。按购买力平价计算GDP,美国经济的人均GDP约为59,609美元,而中国为16676美元。按名义GDP,中国的人均GDP进一步降至8480美元。

2、中国
上世纪70年代,中国已从中央计划的封闭经济转型为制造业和出口中心。自1978年开始实行市场改革以来,这个亚洲巨人的年均经济增长率达到了10%(尽管最近有所放缓),并且在这个过程中,将其13亿人口中的近一半从贫困中解放出来,成为世界上无可争议的第二大经济体。根据另一项被称为购买力平价(PPP)的衡量标准,中国经济已经在GDP方面超过了美国经济,预计在接下来的几年里,中国将稳步领先于美国。然而,名义GDP上,中国11.8万亿美元与美国的经济差距仍然很大。中国经济长期以来以强劲增长著称,近年来增长超过7%。然而,中国的GDP增速在2016年下降至6.7%,预计在2017年将放缓至6.6%,到2022年将进一步下降至5.7%。该国的经济是由制造业和服务业(大约各占45%)的贡献推动的,10%由农业部门贡献了。
美国和中国在2022年的名义GDP据估分别为23.76万亿美元和17.71万亿美元,而按购买力平价,美国的GDP预计为23.76万亿美元,中国为34.31万亿美元。

3、日本
在名义GDP方面,日本经济目前排名第三,而按购买力平价计算,日本经济下滑至第四位。自2008年首次出现衰退症状以来,美国经济一直面临艰难时期。非常规的刺激方案加上低利率债券和疲软的货币使经济进一步紧张(相关阅读:日本经济继续挑战“安倍经济学”)。经济增长再次呈上升态势,2016年约为1%,2017年进一步增长到1.2%左右;然而,预计在未来五年内,这一比例仍将低于1%。日本的名义GDP为4.84万亿美元,购买力平价(PPP)国内生产总值为5.42万亿美元,人均GDP为42,860美元。

4、德国
德国是欧洲最大和最强劲的经济体。在世界范围内,它现在是按名义GDP计算的第四大经济体。德国的经济以出口机械、汽车、家用设备和化工品而闻名。德国拥有熟练的劳动力,但在未来数年里,从英国退欧到难民危机,德国经济面临着无数挑战 (详见:2016年德国面临的3个经济挑战)。其名义GDP的规模为3.42万亿美元,而其在购买力平价方面的GDP为4.13万亿美元。德国的人均GDP为49,814美元,近年来经济以温和的速度增长了1 - 2%,预计将保持这种趋势。

5、英国
英国拥有2.5万亿美元的GDP,目前是世界第五大经济体。按购买力平价计算,其GDP稍高,为2.91万亿美元,而人均GDP为44,001美元。英国经济主要是由服务业推动的,因为服务业占GDP的比重超过75%。农业贡献了最低的1%,制造业是GDP的第二重要贡献者。尽管农业并不是GDP的主要贡献者,但英国有60%的人是农业生产的。尽管在该行业雇佣的劳动力不到2%,但国内生产的食品需求却在国内生产。
2016年6月全民公投决定退出欧盟后,英国经济前景极不明朗,英国和法国可能互换位置。在正式宣布退出欧盟理事会(European Council)后,该国将在欧盟的监管和贸易协议下运作两年,届时,官员们将会就一项新的贸易协议进行谈判。经济学家们估计,英国脱欧可能会导致从GDP的2.5%到9.5%的损失,这取决于贸易协议取代目前的单一市场结构。然而,国际货币基金组织预计其未来5年的经济增长率将保持在1.5 - 1.9%之间。

6、印度
印度是世界第六大经济体,名义GDP为2.45万亿美元。按购买力平价计算,印度排名第三,为9.49万亿美元。该国的高人口将其人均GDP拉低至1850美元。与西方国家相比,印度的GDP仍然高度依赖农业(17%)。然而,近年来服务行业有所回升,目前占GDP的57%,而工业贡献了26%。经济的优势在于对出口的依赖程度有限,高储蓄率,有利的人口结构,以及不断壮大的中产阶级。印度最近取代中国成为增长最快的大型经济体,预计到2022年,印度将跃居第四。

7、法国
法国是世界上最受欢迎的国家,现在是世界第七大经济体,其名义GDP为2.42万亿美元。其在购买力平价方面的GDP大约为2.83万亿美元。法国的贫困率低,生活水平高,这反映在其人均国内生产总值(PPP)43652美元。法国是世界上最大的出口国和进口国之一。法国在过去几年中经历了经济放缓,政府承受着重燃经济的巨大压力,同时在2017年Q12017年失业率高达9.6%(Q42016年的10%略有下降)。根据国际货币基金组织的预测,未来五年法国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率预计将上升,失业率预计将继续下降。

8、巴西
巴西目前的经济规模为2.14万亿美元,按名义GDP计算,其经济规模位居全球第八大经济体之列。巴西经济发展了服务业、制造业和农业部门,每个部门分别贡献了68%、26%和6%。巴西是金砖四国之一,预计将继续成为世界上增长最快的经济体之一。然而,2015年的经济衰退使巴西在世界经济排名中从第七名跌落到第九名,负增长3.6%(2016年)。国际货币基金组织预计,2017年巴西经济将增长0.2%,2018年将进一步恢复到1.7%,在接下来的4年将达到2%。以购买力平价衡量,巴西GDP为3.22万亿美元,而人均GDP为15,485美元。

9、意大利
按名义GDP计算,意大利1.81万亿美元,是世界第九大经济体。意大利是欧元区的主要经济体之一,但它受到该地区债务危机的影响。据估计,该国的公共债务规模约为GDP的133%,其银行体系濒临崩溃,需要“纾困”和“自救”。经济也面临着高失业率,但自2011年以来首次出现了积极的经济增长,这是自2011年以来的第一次,预计还将继续。政府正在采取各种措施来提振近年来萎缩的经济。按购买力平价计算,该国经济的GDP估计为2.3万亿美元,而其人均GDP为37,905美元。(参见:欧洲银行业危机解释(DB))

10、加拿大
2015年,加拿大取代俄罗斯成为第十大经济体。其名义GDP为1.6万亿美元,预计到2022年,将达到1.9万亿美元,这将保持其对俄罗斯的领先地位。加拿大是一个以服务业为导向的经济体,自第二次世界大战以来,在制造业和石油化工领域都有了坚实的增长。然而,加南大很容易受到大宗商品价格的影响,而油价下跌使2015年的经济增长率低于1%(低于2014年的2.6%)。经济预计在2017 - 22年将增长1.8 - 2.0%。按购买力平价计算的GDP为1.75万亿美元,人均GDP为47,771美元。
前10大经济体的名义GDP总和超过了世界经济的68%,而前15个经济体的GDP总和达到了76%。剩下的172个国家占世界经济的不到四分之一。

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Larry Park
China is 2nd largest economy in the world, no doubt about it . see below list of top 10 GDP countries .But that is per country, not per capita ( or person) . if by person, please see 2nd list . China is not even among top 100 and even America is only No.20 .
GDP - per capita (PPP) compares GDP on a purchasing power parity basis divided by population as of 1 July for the same year.
Rank Country GDP - PER CAPITA (PPP)
1. Liechtenstein $139,100
2. Qatar$129,700
3 . Monaco $115,700
4 .Luxembourg $102,000
20 . United States $57,300 2016 est.
But for those small countries, no matter how rich a person is, there is no inflence to the world economy
Larry Park:

中国是世界第二大经济体,毫无疑问。以下是世界GDP前十的国家排名。但这是每个国家,而不是人均(或者说个人),如果说人均,请参阅第二张表,中国甚至还没有排在前100名,甚至美国也排在第20位。
人均GDP(PPP)是按购买力平价计算的,同年7月1日,按人口划分。
人均GDP(PPP):
1、列支敦士登139100美元
2、卡塔尔129700美元
3、摩纳哥115700美元
4、卢森堡102000美元
20. 美国$ 57,300美元(2016年)
但对于那些小国来说,无论个人多么富有,世界经济都不会有任何变化。

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Shu Xu, Strategic FooYou Agent (2008-present)
No, it is not.
Where did you get it? Even as a Chinese I have never heard about such news.
You mean my poor country is the world’s second largest economy? Haha, please stop kidding. Why don't you say China is the largest economy in the world. That sounds more sensational.

Shu Xu, Strategic FooYou Agent (2008-present)
不,它不是
你从哪听到的 ? 即使作为一个中国人,我也从未听说过这样的消息。
你的意思是我贫穷的国家是世界第二大经济体?哈哈,请不要开玩笑,你为什么不说中国是世界上最大的经济体,这样听起来更带劲。

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Joe Sue
Chinese tell us they are not rich and still a developing country although China is the 2nd largest economy with 11 trillion USD of GDP.
Indian often tell us they will be the superpower in the future althoungh GDP of India is only 2 trillion now.
Hmmm, it is really a interesting phenomenon. I really wonder the reason caused the difference.
addition:
I never doubt China is still a developing country and I know it still has a 1.3 billion people. But India is also the same. Many comments ask me for the evidence of “India will be a superpower”. Just search on Quora or Youtube, evidence is everywhere?

Joe Sue:
中国是世界第二大经济体,拥有11万亿美元的GDP,但中国告诉我们,他们并不富裕,仍然是一个发展中国家。
印度则经常告诉我们,他们将成为未来的超级大国,印度的GDP现在只有2万亿。
嗯,这真是一个有趣的现象。我很想知道是什么原因造成了这种差异。
补充:
我从不怀疑中国仍是一个发展中国家,我知道它仍有13亿人口,但印度也一样。许多评论都问我(印度人说)”印度将成为超级大国“的证据。只要在Quora或Youtube上搜索,证据随处可见。

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Surendra Sharma, former Associate Professor of Economics at Government of Uttar Pradesh (1993-2011)
In terms of GDP (Gross domestic Product) China is second only to the US. Rather, in 2017, China has surpassed the US in GDP. China may be called the first largest economy. But considering the population, the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity ) of US is much higher than China.

Surendra Sharma, 曾任北方邦政府经济学副教授(1993-2011):
就国内生产总值(GDP)而言,中国仅次于美国。相反,在2017年,中国的GDP已经超过了美国。中国可能被称为世界第一大经济体。但考虑到人口数量,美国的购买力平价(PPP)远远高于中国。

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David Tufte, Ph.D., economics, 1992
China’s GDP measurements are not considered credible by macroeconomists: GDP growth rates simply can’t be as stable as claimed. It’s not even close. If the growth numbers are fibs, so is the actual GDP data.
Even so, China is either the 2nd or 3rd largest economy (it is not clear if Japan is larger). There is a high likelihood that China will overtake the U.S. in the next few decades. There is a high likelihood that India will overtake China in the next several decades. Be patient. It’s coming, but don’t exaggerate.
As to PPP, it tends to overstate the relative richness of poor countries like China. Of course, using nominal exchange rates tends to overstate the richness of rich countries like the U.S.

David Tufte(经济学博士,1992):
宏观经济学家认为中国的GDP数据不可信:GDP增长率不可能像所宣称的那样稳定,甚至都不是很接近。如果增长数字是谎言,那么实际的GDP数据也是如此。
即使如此,中国要么是第二,要么是第三大经济体(尚不清楚日本是否更大)。中国很有可能在未来几十年内超过美国。印度很有可能在未来几十年内超越中国。耐心点,它来了,但不要夸大。
至于购买力平价,它往往夸大了像中国这样的贫穷国家的相对富裕程度。当然,使用名义汇率往往会夸大富裕国家的富裕程度,比如美国。

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Baowen Pan, Know a little about China and Japan
No,it’s not.Actually it’s one of the poorest nations on earth and it’s the CCP who faked all the data to fool the world just to strengthen its legitimacy.If this is answer you have been looking for.

Baowen Pan(对中国和日本有一点了解):
不,它不是。事实上,它是世界上最贫穷的国家之一,中国GCD伪造了所有的数据来愚弄世界,只是为了加强它的合法性。这是不是你一直在寻找的答案?

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Tom Xu, Chinese who has overseas working experience
No, you know people in communist country never tell truth.
Actually Chinese economy is not even in the top ten.
Look at China, how can “these” be No2?

不,你知道共产主义国家的人从来不讲真话。
实际上,中国经济甚至还没有进入前十。
看看中国,“这些”怎么可能是No2呢?



Regions in absolute poverty.

绝对贫困地区:



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Yu Frank, studied at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
No! In fact India is the real 2nd largest economy.
These are normal Chinese people:
These are normal Indian people:
India is much much wealthier! They should donate more money to UNHCR and accept more Middle East Refugees!

不! 事实上,印度是第二大经济体。

这些都是普通中国人:



这些都是普通印度人:




印度富裕得多!他们应该向联合国难民署捐赠更多的钱,接受更多的中东难民!

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Sean McDirmid, lived in Beijing, China (2007-2016)
China is largest by PPP. Note that PPP is a made up number, trying to account for cost of living differences when many things in China are more expensive than they are in the west. It might not be a useful number for your needs.
By absolute GDP (counting the exchange rate set by the government), China is the second largest economy.
Dividing any of these numbers by population, China is an upper middle income economy, meaning it is not as rich as high income economies in the developed world.

Sean McDirmid 居住在中国北京(2007-2016)
按购买力平价计算,中国是最大的。请注意,购买力平价是一个虚构的数字,中国的许多东西比西方的东西更贵,它试图考虑生活成本的差异,它可能不是一个能满足你需要的,有用的数字。
按绝对GDP计算,中国是第二大经济体(算上政府设定的汇率)。
将这些数字除以人口,中国是一个中上收入经济体,这意味着它没有发达世界的高收入经济体那么富裕。

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Huang Sichun, former Student
if not,there must be 2 countries larger than China, so which two?
I only find USA,so PRC must be the second

如果不是,那肯定有2个国家比中国更大,那是哪两个?
我只知道一个美国,所以中国必须是第二。

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Leslie Luo, studied at The Chinese University of Hong Kong
No. It's just an underdeveloped country where people are still suffering ruthless dictatorship and could not secure a basic life.
Is it what you want to see? If so, get it and go continue your dream of superiority.

Leslie Luo,就读于香港中文大学
不。它只是一个不发达的国家,人民仍在遭受残酷的毒菜统治,无法保障基本生活。
——这就是你想看到的答案吗?如果是这样,你成功了,继续做你的优越美梦吧。

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Secret Wang, M.E Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, University of Tokyo (2018)
Of course
Please always remember that China has a population of 1.4 billion. Every small number times 1.4 billion will be a quiet large number, such as the GDP of China, while every large number divided by 1.4 billion will be a relatively small, such as the GDP per person of China.
Secret Wang,人工智能与机器学习,东京大学(2018):

当然,
请永远记住,中国有14亿人口。每一个小数字乘以14亿将是一个巨大的数字,比如中国的GDP,而每一个大数字除以14亿将是一个相对较小的数字,比如中国的人均GDP。

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Quora User
No, not really.
Chinese economy is unstable. It's fake. The data is made up by the dictatorial government.
The real second largest economy in the world today is actually in India. India has the largest population(With no one child policy) in the world. It's a democratic country, so people love to work for their country. That kind of economy is real.
Besides, India is so advanced in IT industry. IT industry is the future of the world. It has no pollution, and it booms the economy.
India also has the most friendly global environment. People around the world support its rising.
So actually, India is the true world’s second largest economy.

Quora User:
不,不是真的。
中国经济是不稳定的,这是假的。这些数据是由毒菜政府编造出来的。当今世界上第二大经济体实际上是在印度。印度是世界上人口最多的国家(没有一孩政策)。这是一个民主国家,所以人们喜欢为自己的国家工作。这种经济是真实存在的。
此外,印度在IT业的发展也非常先进。IT业是世界的未来,它没有污染,它繁荣了经济。
印度也拥有最友好的全球环境,世界各地的人们都支持它的崛起。
所以实际上,印度是世界第二大经济体。

 
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