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Is China really the worlds 2nd largest economy?


原创翻译:龙腾网 翻译:凌云朵朵 转载请注明出处

George Tait Edwards, P.h.D. Integration of Shimomuran With Wernerian Macroeconomics, University of Southampton (2020)
1 China is the largest economy in the world at GDP PPP $2016 prices
China is by far the largest economy in the world according to the CIA World Factbook (see Central Intelligence Agency which lists the size of economies at the most relevant index of economic strength, at Purchasing Power Parities [PPP). The United States is the third largest world economy, behind that of the EU at present, although when the UK leaves the EU the USA will become the second largest economy in real terms.
I am continually surprised by the misleading information produced on this topic by people whose major source of information is either the Western media (who usually have a West-is-best agenda) or Washington-based US-dominated organisations who use Exchange Rate Values (ERV) in order to show the USA as being much larger economically than it now is at PPP.

George Tait Edwards, 博士 南安普顿大学(2020)  将Shimomuran经济学与Wernerian宏观经济学的整合
根据中央情报局(CIA)的《世界概况》(CIA world Factbook),中国是世界上最大的经济体(参见中央情报局,它列出了各大经济体的规模,【基于购买力平价计算】)。美国是世界第三大经济体,仅次于欧盟,尽管英国退出欧盟后,美国将成为世界第二大经济体。
我对这一主题所产生的误导性信息感到惊讶,这些信息的主要来源要么是西方媒体(通常是西方媒体最好的议题),要么是总部位于华盛顿的以美国为主导的机构,它们使用汇率价值(ERV),为了表明美国在经济上比现在(PPP 购买力平价)要大得多。

2 The CIA World Facebook Source of Data
Fortunately the CIA World Factbook (excellent in its data, doubtful its Washington-Consensus economic opinions) provides a useful corrective to these misleading commentators. PPP GDP provides by far the best comparative data of the productive power of each economy. By totalling the value of all goods and services produced at the same dollar purchasing prices, a “best estimate” of the comparative economic strength of a country and a most valid comparison of incomes per head can be made and other relevant comparisons arrived at. National governments can set the exchange rate very low in order to achieve a trading advantage and PPP calculations correct that major form of economic distortion by comparing goods and services outputs at the same prices.


3 National Income Data
Here’s my table of the CIA-data derived data on the relative sizes of the largest 20 economies at $2016 trillion at the misleading ERV estimate and at the Purchasing Power Parity estimates (ERV is in Column 2, PPP in Column 3):


4 Commentary on this data
The Chinese yuan is extremely undervalued. That’s why China has an ERV estimate of its outputs which is only a bit more than half of the productive power of its economy at PPP. China is by far the largest economy in the world, with a PPP GDP in 2016 of $21.14 trillion, about $2.58 trillion ahead of the USA. Furthermore, the Chinese Economy has an industrial sector which is producing in $2016 an output of about $8.41 tr, over twice that of the USA which is at $3.6tr. China’s industry is slightly smaller than that of the (USA plus the EU) and on current growth trends will be larger than both of these in 2017.
Furthermore, China due to its practical understanding and practice of Shimomuran no-cost investment credit creation now has “Gross National Savings” of 46% of GDP (of which I estimate about 25% of GDP is created no-cost credit) and is investing 43.75% of GDP in fixed capital. About a third of that is in infrastructure, which has no quick returns, so the real rate of investment in industrial plant and equipment is probably about 30% of GDP and their underlying equipment-output ratio would be (30/6.7) or about 4.5, very similar to Japan’s when their economy was at similar levels of income per head.


5 The USA in Past Years and the Future Of China
The United States of America was once the greatest industrial power in the world, thanks to FDR’s economic miracle from 1938–44, when the size of its economy doubled due to the use of no-cost investment credit creation at he FED, just like China is doing now with the People’s Bank of China. The USA was the largest economy in the world from 1945 until about 2010. For more information about this see
How powerful can the US economy potentially be?
The most significant observation in that Answer was perhaps at para 5.1
“Low US economic growth during the post-war period is an American self-inflicted injury.”
and it remains to be seen if Trump or some subsequent President will climb partly to the economic competence of FDR and remedy that.



6 Other Observations
I could write a book about the implications of most of the data in the above table, but restricting myself to a few lines about the largest ten economies in the world:
1 China is going to continue creating no-cost investment credit and growing very rapidly as far ahead as we can see, and China will become by far the most important culture, economy, and society in the world: see
China’s All-Inclusive Economic Miracle: The Third Economic Bomb
2 The EU is faltering despite and because of Germany’s dominance of the EU (which is is due to its excellent Sparkassen public banking system which Angela Merkel does not seem to understand) and could break up due to its lack of the relevant economic understanding: See the so-far-failed start-up of such a system in Greece and in Ireland
3 The USA needs to understand and adopt Shimomuran Economics and to abandon the Washington Consensus macroeconomics which has failed its people and the rest of the world since 1980;
4 India is now doing well after the demonetisation of high-value Rupee notes but it remains to be seen if the higher bank deposits will continue partially to fund higher investment and how the informal Indian economy is responding to the challenge
5 Japan is still in the economic doldrums despite Shinzo Abe’s aims and obxtives to recreate a Shimomuran “Japan of Abundant Capital” perhaps mainly because he has not restored the Convoy System
6 Germany has not acted to restore the viability of the failing EU southern states and it will lose its place as a leader in the EU if it doesn’t
7 Russia is doing comparatively well but it has high growth around its major cities but much less in its vast hinterland and that issue needs to be more fully addressed.
8 Brazil is faltering and it still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 Banking Crisis and the collapse of commodity prices. It too should adopt Shimomuran economics.
9 Indonesia could copy the success of the Tokyo Consensus economies by adopting their policies but there is no sign of that yet. The slump in commodity prices and the credit crunch still affects their economy.
10 The United Kingdom has the lowest savings rate, mainly because much of the gains of growth paid to the already rich are transferred to foreign island nominee bank accounts and the 120,000 foreign banks accounts of UK residents, That is unlikely to change so the UK is stuck with inept government and quasi-insoluble problems because the UK Government continues to pursue a wrong policy of austerity.
China is not only the largest economy in the world, it is investing so much that it is also likely to be in that ichibana position for many decades to come.





【译注:本文中的“Shimomuran”经济学,Shimomuran指的是什么译者不太清楚,答案是用英语写的,但是参杂了很多日式词汇比如 ichibana(market),Shimomuran,Wernerian,中文互联网也找不到这样的描绘,期待某位精通经济学的大佬能解惑】


Brian Chi Zhang, Engineer at Atom Tickets
As always, it depends.
By Purchase Power Parity, China is already #1.
By Nominal GDP, China is #2, and will likely become #1 by 2025–2035
By export surplus, China is by far #1
By patents filed per year, China just recently became #1
By happiness? China is nowhere even close to #1, but neither is United States.
By happiness with the government, China is near the very top, US is below average.
But none of these matters if you haven't yet set foot on China. If a direct comparison between USA and China truly intrigues you, a round trip ticket is only $800, why not see for yourself?
I assure you, you will care less about who is No.1 or No.2, rather be astonished by how cool a completely different mindset brings diversity and value to you, to me, and to the entire world.
Let all cultures shine, and have economy take a backseat, even if just for a brief moment.

Brian Chi Zhang(Atom Tickets工程师):


Arman Siani, Engineer, Entrepreneur, Traveler
Nope. China is the largest economy in the world.
GDP of China at PPP: 21 trillion USD
GDP of USA at PPP: 19 Trillion USD
When you talk about the size of the economy, PPP should be the figure that you look at because it takes account of the price and cost of living differences across coutnries.
So while China’s GDP at nominal exchange rates makes it 2nd largest, at purchasing power parity, its economy is larger than not just the US but also the EU.
The estimates are by IMF and other respectable international organizations and the figures are public information. Just Google it. Wikipedia has the info.

Arman Siani(工程师,企业家,旅行者):
因此,尽管以”名义汇率“(Nominal Exchange Rates)计算的中国国内生产总值(GDP)为第二,但按购买力平价计算,中国的经济规模不仅大于美国,还包括欧盟。


Erik Hille, M.S. Economics, Southern Methodist University (2014)
There are two schools of thought on how to compare GDP:
Currency Exchange Rate GDP. Were we to try to purchase goods on the international market using currency exchange rate, how much USD would we have to buy things. List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wiki
PPP (Purchasing Price Parity) GDP. For the country as residents how big is the total basket of good that we can consume. List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wiki
Non transportable services — labor cost/income being the component that causes much of the difference between exchange rate and PPP comparisons.
However the other way to look at this is per person how much do they have — per capita. There Qatar rules all lists-estimates.

Erik Hille(南卫理公会大学经济学硕士,2014):





Kaye Lee
Yes, it is the largest economy in the world, after the United States. Here is the references that found online and in the library.
News - upxed July 7, 2017 — 10:39 AM EDT
1. United States
The U.S. economy remains the largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP. The $19.42 trillion U.S. economy is 25% of the gross world product. The United States is an economic superpower that is highly advanced in terms of technology and infrastructure and has abundant natural resources. However, the U.S. economy loses its spot as the number one economy to China when measured in terms of GDP based on PPP. In these terms, China’s GDP is $23.19 trillion exceeds the U.S. GDP of $19.42 trillion. However, the U.S. is way ahead of China in terms of GDP per capita in nominal terms as well as PPP; GDP per capita (PPP) for the U.S. economy is approximately $59,609 versus $16,676 in China. In nominal terms, China’s GDP per capita further falls to $8,480.

2. China
China has transformed itself from a centrally-planned closed economy in the 1970s to a manufacturing and exporting hub over the years. Since it initiated market reforms in 1978, the Asian giant has achieved economic growth averaging 10% annually (though it’s slowed recently) and, in the process, lifted almost half of its 1.3 billion population out of poverty and become the undisputed second-largest economy on Earth. The Chinese economy has already overtaken the U.S. economy in terms of GDP, based on another measure known as purchasing power parity (PPP), and is estimated to pull ahead of the U.S. steadily in the following years. However, the difference between the economies in terms of nominal GDP remains large with China's $11.8 trillion economy. The Chinese economy has long been known for its strong growth, a growth of over 7% even in recent years. However, the country saw its total GDP growth go down to 6.7% in 2016 and is projected to slow to 6.6% in 2017, and further decline to 5.7% by 2022. The country's economy is propelled by an equal contribution from manufacturing and services (45% each, approximately) with a 10% contribution by the agricultural sector.
The nominal GDP for the U.S. and China for the year 2022 is estimated at $23.76 trillion and $17.71 trillion respectively, while the GDP in terms of PPP is projected at $23.76 trillion for the U.S. and $34.31 trillion for China.

3. Japan
Japan’s economy currently ranks third in terms of nominal GDP, while it slips to fourth spot when comparing the GDP by purchasing power parity. The economy has been facing hard times since 2008, when it first showed recessionary symptoms. Unconventional stimulus packages combined with subzero bond yields and weak currency have further strained the economy (for related reading, see: Japan's Economy Continues to Challenge Abenomics). Economic growth is once again positive, to about 1% in 2016 and further to around 1.2% in 2017; however, it is forecasted to stay below 1% during the next five years. The nominal GDP of Japan is $4.84 trillion, its GDP (PPP) is $5.42 trillion, and its GDP (PPP) per capita is $42,860.

4. Germany
Germany is Europe’s largest and strongest economy. On the world scale, it now ranks as the fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. Germany’s economy is known for its exports of machinery, vehicles, household equipment, and chemicals. Germany has a skilled labor force, but the economy is facing countless of challenges in the coming years ranging from Brexit to the refugee crisis (for related reading, see: 3 Economical Challenges Germany Faces in 2016). The size of its nominal GDP is $3.42 trillion, while its GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is $4.13 trillion. Germany’s GDP (PPP) per capita is $49,814, and the economy has moved at a moderate pace of 1-2% in recent years and is forecasted to stay that way.
5. United Kingdom
The United Kingdom, with a $2.5 trillion GDP, is currently the world’s fifth largest. Its GDP in terms of PPP is slightly higher at $2.91 trillion while its GDP (PPP) per capita is $44,001. The economy of the UK is primarily driven by services, as the sector contributes more than 75% of the GDP. With agriculture contributing a minimal 1%, manufacturing is the second most important contributor to GDP. Although agriculture is not a major contributor to GDP, 60% of the U.K.’s food needs is produced domestically, even though less than 2% of its labor force is employed in the sector.
After the referendum in June 2016 when voters decided to leave the European unx, economic prospects for the UK are highly uncertain, and the UK and France may swap places. The country will operate under EU regulations and trade agreements for two years after the formal announcement of an exit to the European Council, in which time officials will work on a new trade agreement. Economists have estimated that Brexit could result in a loss of anywhere from 2.2-9.5% of GDP long term, depending on the trade agreements replacing the current single market structure. The IMF, however, projects growth to stay between 1.5-1.9% in the next five years.
6. India
India is the sixth largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $2.45 trillion. The country ranks third in GDP in terms of purchasing power parity at $9.49 trillion. The country’s high population drags its GDP (PPP) per capita down to $1,850. India’s GDP is still highly dependent on agriculture (17%), compared to western countries. However, the services sector has picked up in recent years and now accounts for 57% of the GDP, while industry contributes 26%. The economy’s strength lies in a limited dependence on exports, high saving rates, favorable demographics, and a rising middle class. India recently overtook China as the fastest growing large economy and is expected to jump up to rank fourth on the list by 2022.
7. France
France, the most visited country in the world, is now the seventh largest economies with a nominal GDP of $2.42 trillion. Its GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is around $2.83 trillion. France has a low poverty rate and high standard of living, which is reflected in its GDP (PPP) per capita of $43,652. The country is among the top exporters and importers in the world. France has experienced a slowdown over the past few years and the government is under immense pressure to rekindle the economy, as well as combat high unemployment which stood at 9.6% in Q12017 (a slight drop from 10% in Q42016). According to IMF forecasts the country's GDP growth rate is expected to rise over the next five years, and unemployment is expected to continue to go down.
8. Brazil
With its $2.14 trillion economy, Brazil now ranks as the eight largest economy by nominal GDP. The Brazilian economy has developed services, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, with each sector contributing around 68%, 26%, and 6% respectively. Brazil is one of the BRIC countries, and was projected to continue to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the recession in 2015 caused Brazil to go from seventh to ninth place in the world economies ranking, with a negative growth rate of 3.6% (2016). The IMF expects the economy to grow at 0.2% during 2017, further recovering to 1.7% in 2018 and then to 2% during the next four years. The Brazilian GDP measured in purchasing power parity is $3.22 trillion, while its GDP (PPP) per capita is $15,485.
9. Italy
Italy’s $1.81 trillion economy is the world’s ninth largest in terms of nominal GDP. Italy is among the prominent economies of the Eurozone, but it has been impacted by the debt crisis in the region. The economy suffers from a huge public debt estimated to be about 133% of GDP, and its banking system is close to a collapse and in need of a bailout/bail-in. The economy is also facing high unemployment, but saw a positive economic growth in 2014 (0.1%) for the first time since 2011, which is projected to continue. The government is working on various measures to boost the economy that has contracted in recent years. The GDP measured in purchasing power parity for the economy is estimated at $2.3 trillion, while its per capita GDP (PPP) is $37,905. (See also: The European Banking Crisis Explained (DB))
10. Canada
Canada took over Russia to feature as the tenth largest economy in 2015. It’s $1.6 trillion is expected to touch $1.9 trillion by 2022, maintaining its lead over Russia. Canada has a highly service-oriented economy, and has had solid growth in manufacturing as well as in the oil and petroleum sector since the Second World War. However, the country is very exposed to commodity prices, and the decline in oil prices kept the economic growth under 1% in 2015 (down from 2.6% in 2014). The economy is expected to grow in the range of 1.8-2.0% during 2017-22. The GDP measured in purchasing-power parity is $1.75 trillion, and the GDP per capita (PPP) is $47,771.
The nominal GDP of the top 10 economies adds up to over 68% of the world’s economy, and the top 15 economies add up to about 76%. The remaining 172 countries constitute less than a quarter of the world’s economy.

Kaye Lee:




德国是欧洲最大和最强劲的经济体。在世界范围内,它现在是按名义GDP计算的第四大经济体。德国的经济以出口机械、汽车、家用设备和化工品而闻名。德国拥有熟练的劳动力,但在未来数年里,从英国退欧到难民危机,德国经济面临着无数挑战 (详见:2016年德国面临的3个经济挑战)。其名义GDP的规模为3.42万亿美元,而其在购买力平价方面的GDP为4.13万亿美元。德国的人均GDP为49,814美元,近年来经济以温和的速度增长了1 - 2%,预计将保持这种趋势。

2016年6月全民公投决定退出欧盟后,英国经济前景极不明朗,英国和法国可能互换位置。在正式宣布退出欧盟理事会(European Council)后,该国将在欧盟的监管和贸易协议下运作两年,届时,官员们将会就一项新的贸易协议进行谈判。经济学家们估计,英国脱欧可能会导致从GDP的2.5%到9.5%的损失,这取决于贸易协议取代目前的单一市场结构。然而,国际货币基金组织预计其未来5年的经济增长率将保持在1.5 - 1.9%之间。





2015年,加拿大取代俄罗斯成为第十大经济体。其名义GDP为1.6万亿美元,预计到2022年,将达到1.9万亿美元,这将保持其对俄罗斯的领先地位。加拿大是一个以服务业为导向的经济体,自第二次世界大战以来,在制造业和石油化工领域都有了坚实的增长。然而,加南大很容易受到大宗商品价格的影响,而油价下跌使2015年的经济增长率低于1%(低于2014年的2.6%)。经济预计在2017 - 22年将增长1.8 - 2.0%。按购买力平价计算的GDP为1.75万亿美元,人均GDP为47,771美元。


Larry Park
China is 2nd largest economy in the world, no doubt about it . see below list of top 10 GDP countries .But that is per country, not per capita ( or person) . if by person, please see 2nd list . China is not even among top 100 and even America is only No.20 .
GDP - per capita (PPP) compares GDP on a purchasing power parity basis divided by population as of 1 July for the same year.
Rank Country GDP - PER CAPITA (PPP)
1. Liechtenstein $139,100
2. Qatar$129,700
3 . Monaco $115,700
4 .Luxembourg $102,000
20 . United States $57,300 2016 est.
But for those small countries, no matter how rich a person is, there is no inflence to the world economy
Larry Park:

20. 美国$ 57,300美元(2016年)


Shu Xu, Strategic FooYou Agent (2008-present)
No, it is not.
Where did you get it? Even as a Chinese I have never heard about such news.
You mean my poor country is the world’s second largest economy? Haha, please stop kidding. Why don't you say China is the largest economy in the world. That sounds more sensational.

Shu Xu, Strategic FooYou Agent (2008-present)
你从哪听到的 ? 即使作为一个中国人,我也从未听说过这样的消息。


Joe Sue
Chinese tell us they are not rich and still a developing country although China is the 2nd largest economy with 11 trillion USD of GDP.
Indian often tell us they will be the superpower in the future althoungh GDP of India is only 2 trillion now.
Hmmm, it is really a interesting phenomenon. I really wonder the reason caused the difference.
I never doubt China is still a developing country and I know it still has a 1.3 billion people. But India is also the same. Many comments ask me for the evidence of “India will be a superpower”. Just search on Quora or Youtube, evidence is everywhere?

Joe Sue:


Surendra Sharma, former Associate Professor of Economics at Government of Uttar Pradesh (1993-2011)
In terms of GDP (Gross domestic Product) China is second only to the US. Rather, in 2017, China has surpassed the US in GDP. China may be called the first largest economy. But considering the population, the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity ) of US is much higher than China.

Surendra Sharma, 曾任北方邦政府经济学副教授(1993-2011):


David Tufte, Ph.D., economics, 1992
China’s GDP measurements are not considered credible by macroeconomists: GDP growth rates simply can’t be as stable as claimed. It’s not even close. If the growth numbers are fibs, so is the actual GDP data.
Even so, China is either the 2nd or 3rd largest economy (it is not clear if Japan is larger). There is a high likelihood that China will overtake the U.S. in the next few decades. There is a high likelihood that India will overtake China in the next several decades. Be patient. It’s coming, but don’t exaggerate.
As to PPP, it tends to overstate the relative richness of poor countries like China. Of course, using nominal exchange rates tends to overstate the richness of rich countries like the U.S.

David Tufte(经济学博士,1992):


Baowen Pan, Know a little about China and Japan
No,it’s not.Actually it’s one of the poorest nations on earth and it’s the CCP who faked all the data to fool the world just to strengthen its legitimacy.If this is answer you have been looking for.

Baowen Pan(对中国和日本有一点了解):


Tom Xu, Chinese who has overseas working experience
No, you know people in communist country never tell truth.
Actually Chinese economy is not even in the top ten.
Look at China, how can “these” be No2?


Regions in absolute poverty.



Yu Frank, studied at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
No! In fact India is the real 2nd largest economy.
These are normal Chinese people:
These are normal Indian people:
India is much much wealthier! They should donate more money to UNHCR and accept more Middle East Refugees!

不! 事实上,印度是第二大经济体。





Sean McDirmid, lived in Beijing, China (2007-2016)
China is largest by PPP. Note that PPP is a made up number, trying to account for cost of living differences when many things in China are more expensive than they are in the west. It might not be a useful number for your needs.
By absolute GDP (counting the exchange rate set by the government), China is the second largest economy.
Dividing any of these numbers by population, China is an upper middle income economy, meaning it is not as rich as high income economies in the developed world.

Sean McDirmid 居住在中国北京(2007-2016)


Huang Sichun, former Student
if not,there must be 2 countries larger than China, so which two?
I only find USA,so PRC must be the second



Leslie Luo, studied at The Chinese University of Hong Kong
No. It's just an underdeveloped country where people are still suffering ruthless dictatorship and could not secure a basic life.
Is it what you want to see? If so, get it and go continue your dream of superiority.

Leslie Luo,就读于香港中文大学


Secret Wang, M.E Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, University of Tokyo (2018)
Of course
Please always remember that China has a population of 1.4 billion. Every small number times 1.4 billion will be a quiet large number, such as the GDP of China, while every large number divided by 1.4 billion will be a relatively small, such as the GDP per person of China.
Secret Wang,人工智能与机器学习,东京大学(2018):



Quora User
No, not really.
Chinese economy is unstable. It's fake. The data is made up by the dictatorial government.
The real second largest economy in the world today is actually in India. India has the largest population(With no one child policy) in the world. It's a democratic country, so people love to work for their country. That kind of economy is real.
Besides, India is so advanced in IT industry. IT industry is the future of the world. It has no pollution, and it booms the economy.
India also has the most friendly global environment. People around the world support its rising.
So actually, India is the true world’s second largest economy.

Quora User:

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