QA 是什么使金正恩放弃了他的美国摧毁计划转而希望与特朗普会面协商谈判呢?

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原创翻译:龙腾网 翻译:s555555555 转载请注明出处

What is causing Kim Jong Un to suddenly give up on his plan to destroy America and want to meet with Trump and plan for denuclearization instead?

QA 是什么使金正恩放弃了他的美国摧毁计划转而希望与特朗普会面协商谈判呢?

原创翻译:龙腾网 翻译:s555555555 转载请注明出处

Michael Levy,, Political Search Engine & News, Founder
Answered Fri
anctions... and he’s finally got a U.S. President to negotiate with who needs a win as much as he does!
Like Trump said repeatedly during the debates, China is North Korea’s lifeline. Once China agreed to the sanctions, and actually enforced them, Kim Jong Un knew the time was coming to make a deal. Without desperately needed supplies from China, the North Koreans will starve.
Kim Jong Un always knew this day would come. That’s why he’s been working so hard on his nuclear weapons and missile programs. The objective of those programs was never to go to war. Nuclear war is not an option. Kim knows this. He’s Western educated. He’s not stupid. He’s not crazy. He’s ruthless and sadistic, but not crazy. Kim knows a nuclear war with the U.S. ends with North Korea wiped off the map and the United States missing a few cities. The objective of having nuclear missiles that can threaten the United States mainland is to hold leverage in a negotiation. Kim knows the key to having leverage with the U.S. in a negotiation is to have something to offer to whom he is negotiating with: The President of the United States.
Presidents want to get re-elected. In order to get re-elected, a President needs to be popular. A President that is a hero to the people is a popular President.
A President that gets Kim Jong Un to disarm, at a time he is threatening the people of the United States mainland directly, will be a hero to every American. A President who is a hero will get re-elected. A President who ends a war, or keeps one from starting, is the type President that might even be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize - and more...
A President that prevents a nuclear war from happening is NOT a President that gets impeached or goes to jail or is thrown to hungry dogs by his starving people because “dear leader” ain’t so dear when you’ve been eating dirt for the past six months…
Trump and Kim getting together now, just after the Olympics, is like kismit. It’s all coming together…
By developing nuclear weapons, and missiles to carry them to the United States mainland, Kim Jong Un now has something meaningful to give - and he’s got the right guy to give it to. That’s why he’s willing to give up on his “plans to destroy America.”
Destroying America was never the plan in the first place! NOT destroying America was always Kim’s objective…
Kim needed the right U.S. President to negotiate with. Kim needed a President that NEEDED HIM. He needed a President that was in as much trouble as he is. That President is Donald Trump.

Michael Levy:

金正恩一直都知道这一天会到来。这就是为什么他一直致力于他的核武器和导弹计划。这些计划的目标从来都不是战争。核战争从来都不是可选项。金正恩知道这一点。他接受过西方教育。他不蠢也不疯。他冷酷无情,虐待狂,但并不疯狂。金正恩知道,与美国的核战争结束后,朝鲜就会从地图上消失,而美国只失去了几个城市。有可能威胁美国大陆的核导弹的真正目的是保持谈判天枰的平衡。而金正恩知道保持平衡的关键是要有对方:美国总统 所需要的一些东西。





金需要合适的美国总统进行谈判。金需要一位也需要他的总统。一个和他一样麻烦缠身的总统。这位总统叫  唐纳德·特朗普。

Connie K. Hayek, Child Welfare Advocate, Data-geek, Writer (& Reader), Cheesecake Baker & Stunt Kite Flyer 
We can only speculate on the reasoning behind this change of heart. I suspect that it is not a change of heart at all. Kim Jong Un is known to have a relationship with Russia. My hypothesis is that Russia is behind this. In the US, the heat is on for Trump with the Mueller investigation getting closer and closer to possible action against Trump for collusion with Russia. Over a dozen indictments, several guilty pleas, and increasingly clear linkages between Trump and Russia are pointing to an ultimate indictment of Trump. If that happens, Putin loses his puppet in the White House. My suspicion is that Putin put Kim Jong Un up to this in order to try to bolster Trump’s image in the US and distract from the collusion investigations. Where Putin is misjudging the US is in thinking that a win with North Korea will make the Mueller investigation go away. He also is misjudging North Korea if he thinks that Kim Jong Un is going to back off and start to cooperate with the US. Kim Jong Un may act like he will cooperate with the US in the short-term to gain favor with Russia, but he is not going to develop a whole new personality because Putin sees a strategic advantage to using North Korea to distract from the investigation in the US.

Connie K. Hayek:

Anton Verdi,
Neither Kim Jong Un nor Kim il-Sung and Kim Jong-il had any plan to destroy America ever.
The whole point of DPRK’s nuclear program is to have leverage over the US regarding the matter of Korean Peninsula. Kim knows without nuclear weapons with the range up to continental USA there can be no meaningful and conclusive negotiation and thus no guarantee of regime's future. USA is notorious for the regime change and betrayal, Gaddafi and Saddam Hussain is the example. Kim understands this, thus pursued the nuclear weapons very aggressively, far more aggressive and rapid than his father. Kim's ultimate goal is the reunification and US is known to counter any of regime's initiative regarding reunification because that means the end of US influence in peninsula.
Now that DPRK acheived it's goal of nuclear weapons with ability to hit anywhere in US mainland, it earned the sit at the next end of table in equal footing and dignity. Next step is regime's ultimate goal, i.e, reunification of Korea's, possibly under Kim's authority. It will demand that US withdraw its troops(which it won't)for peninsula in exchange of denuclearizarion or threatens to nuke both US and ROK. It's dilemma for US, it has to take chance of getting LA, Chicago, Denver and New York nuked while defending ROK or to stay silent in matter as Kim invade ROK. That's the power of DPRK's nukes.
In conclusion Kim Jong un isn’t a psychopathic, crazy and war mongering dictator but a shrewd,pragmatic and strategic leader.
PS: If the negotiation on May goes well,we could speculate the reunification of Korea and President Trump, Kim Jong un and Moon Jae-in together winning Nobel Peace Prize. Sounds surreal, doesn't it? But that's the normal geopolitics.

Anton Verdi:


现在,朝鲜已经实现了其核武器的目标,它有能力达到美国本土的任何地方,使朝鲜在谈判桌上有了尊严和一席之地。下一步是朝鲜的最终目标 统一韩国,可能是在金正恩的统治下完成。他会要求美国撤回其在朝鲜半岛上的军队,以换取朝鲜弃核,或威胁核攻击美国和韩国。对于美国来说,这是一个两难的选择,如果保护韩国,洛杉矶、芝加哥、丹佛和纽约就有被炸的风险,或者不保护韩国在金入侵韩国时保持沉默。这就是朝鲜核武器的威力。



George Kleinman, Associate Professor of Pathology & Neurosurgery at New York Medical College
Answered Fri
Everything you will read is, of course, speculation. One must note that South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, has selected two of his closest aides to go to North Korea this week to meet North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un. So clearly something is happening.
In spite of his bluster, Trump has never been particularly skillful at making deals, a deficiency observed and chronicled by one his former top executives in Atlantic City, John R. O’Donnell. In Atlantic City, Trump showed himself to be incredibly stupid about weighing a deal's downside risks against its potential rewards, and was afflicted with near- terminal overconfidence. Kim may sense that Trump is an easy mark. By having an American president come to negotiate, Kim Jong-un will achieve great prestige.
Kim no longer need to threaten the United States with destruction: Trump and the Republican Party are doing a fine job already. Prof. Johan Galtung - who correctly predicted that the Soviet Union would collapse by 1990 - had predicted that the US will collapse by 2025. After Trump’s election, however, Galtung revised his prediction: 2020. Trump’s tariffs, which will affect countries who finance the US national debt are likely to refuse to continue unless interest rates are increased. This would cause major damage to the US economy. Other nations are signing international trade agreements from which the US has been excluded. Considering the staggering and escalating national debt, failing US infrastructure, and tariffs, the possibility that the US dollar will be replaced as world reserve currency is real.
America’s allies seem to be coming to the conclusion that it can longer be trusted. Angela Merkel said, “The era in which we could fully rely on others is over to some extent. That’s what I experienced over the past several days… We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands — naturally in friendship with the United States of America, in friendship with Great Britain, as good neighbors with whoever, also with Russia and other countries.But we have to know that we Europeans must fight for our own future and destiny.”
Given Trump’s damage to America’s international relationships, Kim sees a golden opportunity. Prof, Galtung is not the only one who has predicted the decline of America. Chalmers Johnson predicted the same in his “Blowback Trilogy” as has Prof Alfred W. McCoy in his book, In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power, in which he write that “every significant trend points toward a striking decline in American global power by 2030.” The likeliest beneficiary would be China whose steady and accelerating rise will allow to challenge and ultimately supplant the United States as the most powerful economic, political, cultural, technological, and military force on the planet. McCoy viewed President Obama as a “grandmaster of the great game” of multilateral global Empire. His replacement by the blundering, offensive nationalist and and grossly incompetent Trump and his enabling by a corrupt Republican-dominated Congress will not bode well for the future of America.

George Kleinman:




在特朗普的损害美国的国际关系,金正恩看到一个绝佳的机会。教授加尔通不是唯一一个预测美国的衰落的人。查尔默斯 约翰逊也在他的“反弹三部曲”中作出相似预测,还有阿尔弗雷德·w·麦科伊教授在他的书中,《美国世纪的阴影:美国全球经济的兴衰》写道,“每一个重要事件的转折点都指向美国的全球力量到2030年会显著下降。“最有可能的受益者是中国稳定并加速崛起将有能力允许挑战并最终取代美国成为全球最强大的经济、政治、文化、科技、和军事力量。麦科伊教授认为奥巴马总统是一位领导美国与多国博弈的多边博弈大师。而他的继任者特朗普是一个浮躁、攻击性民族主义、腐败和严重不称职的总统和他举荐的由共和党主导的国也不会预示着美国美好的未来。

Habib Fanny, Political animal
Answered Sat
North Korea never planned to destroy America. They don’t have that capacity. And they would get destroyed in any nuclear war with us. They’re not stupid. They want nuclear weapons to deter us from invading them, as we do to every regime we don’t like.
North Korea wants relief from our sanctions. But I’m skeptical that they’ll agree to give up their nukes. They have seen what happened to Iraq and Libya. Their negotiating tactic will consist in trying to get us to lift the sanctions without them having to give up their nukes.
Even if they agree to denuclearization, there is little reason to believe that they would actually follow through on their promise. Iran is a different case because Iran has a functional economy. North Korea literally has only one card to play: their nukes. Yes, they have the capacity to kill possibly hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea (and possibly Japan) if they get into a war with us, but if they played that card, they would be guaranteeing obliteration or at the very least regime change. The nukes are their best asset, if they are to prevent us from invading, now or 15 years from now.
Nevertheless, I do think it’s worth exploring the possibility of a deal. So, I wish Trump good luck.

Habib Fanny:

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