QA 是什么使金正恩放弃了他的美国摧毁计划转而希望与特朗普会面协商谈判呢?

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What is causing Kim Jong Un to suddenly give up on his plan to destroy America and want to meet with Trump and plan for denuclearization instead?

QA 是什么使金正恩放弃了他的美国摧毁计划转而希望与特朗普会面协商谈判呢?



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Michael Levy, 4Political.com, Political Search Engine & News, Founder
Answered Fri
anctions... and he’s finally got a U.S. President to negotiate with who needs a win as much as he does!
Like Trump said repeatedly during the debates, China is North Korea’s lifeline. Once China agreed to the sanctions, and actually enforced them, Kim Jong Un knew the time was coming to make a deal. Without desperately needed supplies from China, the North Koreans will starve.
Kim Jong Un always knew this day would come. That’s why he’s been working so hard on his nuclear weapons and missile programs. The objective of those programs was never to go to war. Nuclear war is not an option. Kim knows this. He’s Western educated. He’s not stupid. He’s not crazy. He’s ruthless and sadistic, but not crazy. Kim knows a nuclear war with the U.S. ends with North Korea wiped off the map and the United States missing a few cities. The objective of having nuclear missiles that can threaten the United States mainland is to hold leverage in a negotiation. Kim knows the key to having leverage with the U.S. in a negotiation is to have something to offer to whom he is negotiating with: The President of the United States.
Presidents want to get re-elected. In order to get re-elected, a President needs to be popular. A President that is a hero to the people is a popular President.
A President that gets Kim Jong Un to disarm, at a time he is threatening the people of the United States mainland directly, will be a hero to every American. A President who is a hero will get re-elected. A President who ends a war, or keeps one from starting, is the type President that might even be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize - and more...
A President that prevents a nuclear war from happening is NOT a President that gets impeached or goes to jail or is thrown to hungry dogs by his starving people because “dear leader” ain’t so dear when you’ve been eating dirt for the past six months…
Trump and Kim getting together now, just after the Olympics, is like kismit. It’s all coming together…
By developing nuclear weapons, and missiles to carry them to the United States mainland, Kim Jong Un now has something meaningful to give - and he’s got the right guy to give it to. That’s why he’s willing to give up on his “plans to destroy America.”
Destroying America was never the plan in the first place! NOT destroying America was always Kim’s objective…
Kim needed the right U.S. President to negotiate with. Kim needed a President that NEEDED HIM. He needed a President that was in as much trouble as he is. That President is Donald Trump.

Michael Levy:
是制裁……他终于有了一位美国总统来与他谈判,一位和他一样需要赢得大量利益的总统!

就像川普在辩论中反复说的那样,中国是朝鲜的生命线。一旦中国同意了制裁,并且实际上实施了制裁,金正恩就知道是时候要签协议了。如果没有来自中国急需的供应,朝鲜人就会饿死。
金正恩一直都知道这一天会到来。这就是为什么他一直致力于他的核武器和导弹计划。这些计划的目标从来都不是战争。核战争从来都不是可选项。金正恩知道这一点。他接受过西方教育。他不蠢也不疯。他冷酷无情,虐待狂,但并不疯狂。金正恩知道,与美国的核战争结束后,朝鲜就会从地图上消失,而美国只失去了几个城市。有可能威胁美国大陆的核导弹的真正目的是保持谈判天枰的平衡。而金正恩知道保持平衡的关键是要有对方:美国总统 所需要的一些东西。

每个总统都希望能连任。总统需要人气才能再次当选。而对人民来说一个英雄般的总统肯定是大受欢迎的总统。

一个让金正恩解除武装的总统,让美国大陆与人民不在饱受危险的总统,将是每个美国人的英雄。而一个英雄般的总统;一名结束了战争或从战争开始萌芽就将其扼杀的总统;甚至可能被授予诺贝尔和平奖的总统会再次当选。

而这一边的总统成功阻止了核战争,意味着另一边的总统免于被他的手下丢进监狱喂狗,因为当你过去的六个多月吃的都是土那么“亲爱的领袖”就变得不那么亲爱了…

在冬季残奥会结束后,特朗普会和金正恩聚在一起,像命中注定一样…

通过发展能威胁到美国本土的核武器和导弹,金正恩现在有了谈判的本钱—也有了合适的人选。这就是为什么他愿意放弃他“毁灭美国的计划”。
摧毁美国从来就不是计划!不破坏美国才是金正恩的目标…
金需要合适的美国总统进行谈判。金需要一位也需要他的总统。一个和他一样麻烦缠身的总统。这位总统叫 唐纳德·特朗普。

Connie K. Hayek, Child Welfare Advocate, Data-geek, Writer (& Reader), Cheesecake Baker & Stunt Kite Flyer
We can only speculate on the reasoning behind this change of heart. I suspect that it is not a change of heart at all. Kim Jong Un is known to have a relationship with Russia. My hypothesis is that Russia is behind this. In the US, the heat is on for Trump with the Mueller investigation getting closer and closer to possible action against Trump for collusion with Russia. Over a dozen indictments, several guilty pleas, and increasingly clear linkages between Trump and Russia are pointing to an ultimate indictment of Trump. If that happens, Putin loses his puppet in the White House. My suspicion is that Putin put Kim Jong Un up to this in order to try to bolster Trump’s image in the US and distract from the collusion investigations. Where Putin is misjudging the US is in thinking that a win with North Korea will make the Mueller investigation go away. He also is misjudging North Korea if he thinks that Kim Jong Un is going to back off and start to cooperate with the US. Kim Jong Un may act like he will cooperate with the US in the short-term to gain favor with Russia, but he is not going to develop a whole new personality because Putin sees a strategic advantage to using North Korea to distract from the investigation in the US.

Connie K. Hayek:
我们只能推测这种改变背后的原因。我怀疑这根本不是一种改变。众所周知,金正恩与俄罗斯关系密切。我的假设是俄罗斯是幕后主使。在美国,对特朗普通俄门的热度正在升温,米勒的调查越来越接近特朗普与俄罗斯勾结的可能。十几起指控,几起认罪,以及特朗普和俄罗斯之间日益清晰的联系,都会导致向川普发起最终指控。如果这种情况发生,普京将失去他在白宫的傀儡。我怀疑,普京之所以这么做,是为了加强特朗普在美国的形象,并分散他们对联合调查的注意力。在普京误判美国会因为特朗普在朝鲜的胜利会让穆勒的调查告吹。如果他认为金正恩将软化并与美国合作他就又错了。金正恩可能会在短期内与美国合作,以讨好俄罗斯,但绝不会因为普京的战略意图而改变他的意志的。



Anton Verdi,
Neither Kim Jong Un nor Kim il-Sung and Kim Jong-il had any plan to destroy America ever.
The whole point of DPRK’s nuclear program is to have leverage over the US regarding the matter of Korean Peninsula. Kim knows without nuclear weapons with the range up to continental USA there can be no meaningful and conclusive negotiation and thus no guarantee of regime's future. USA is notorious for the regime change and betrayal, Gaddafi and Saddam Hussain is the example. Kim understands this, thus pursued the nuclear weapons very aggressively, far more aggressive and rapid than his father. Kim's ultimate goal is the reunification and US is known to counter any of regime's initiative regarding reunification because that means the end of US influence in peninsula.
Now that DPRK acheived it's goal of nuclear weapons with ability to hit anywhere in US mainland, it earned the sit at the next end of table in equal footing and dignity. Next step is regime's ultimate goal, i.e, reunification of Korea's, possibly under Kim's authority. It will demand that US withdraw its troops(which it won't)for peninsula in exchange of denuclearizarion or threatens to nuke both US and ROK. It's dilemma for US, it has to take chance of getting LA, Chicago, Denver and New York nuked while defending ROK or to stay silent in matter as Kim invade ROK. That's the power of DPRK's nukes.
In conclusion Kim Jong un isn’t a psychopathic, crazy and war mongering dictator but a shrewd,pragmatic and strategic leader.
PS: If the negotiation on May goes well,we could speculate the reunification of Korea and President Trump, Kim Jong un and Moon Jae-in together winning Nobel Peace Prize. Sounds surreal, doesn't it? But that's the normal geopolitics.

Anton Verdi:
金正恩、金日成和金正日都未曾有过任何摧毁美国的计划。

朝鲜核计划的全部意义在于对朝鲜半岛的问题施加影响。金正日知道,没有核武器和到达美国本土的射程,就不会有有意义和决定性的谈判,因此就不能保证政权的未来。美国发动政变和背叛而臭名昭著,卡扎菲和萨达姆就是例子。金正恩明白这一点,因此他非常积极地追求核武器,比他的父亲更加激进。金正恩的最终目标是统一,众所周知,美国反对任何政权的统一行动,因为这意味着美国在朝鲜半岛的影响力将会消失。

现在,朝鲜已经实现了其核武器的目标,它有能力达到美国本土的任何地方,使朝鲜在谈判桌上有了尊严和一席之地。下一步是朝鲜的最终目标 统一韩国,可能是在金正恩的统治下完成。他会要求美国撤回其在朝鲜半岛上的军队,以换取朝鲜弃核,或威胁核攻击美国和韩国。对于美国来说,这是一个两难的选择,如果保护韩国,洛杉矶、芝加哥、丹佛和纽约就有被炸的风险,或者不保护韩国在金入侵韩国时保持沉默。这就是朝鲜核武器的威力。

总而言之,金正恩不是一个精神变态、疯狂、好战的独裁者,而是一个精明、务实和战略领袖。

PS:如果谈判进展顺利,我们可以推测朝鲜和美国总统特朗普、金正恩和文在寅在一起获得诺贝尔和平奖。听上去有些超现实主义,不是吗?但这是正常的地缘政治了。

George Kleinman, Associate Professor of Pathology & Neurosurgery at New York Medical College
Answered Fri
Everything you will read is, of course, speculation. One must note that South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, has selected two of his closest aides to go to North Korea this week to meet North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un. So clearly something is happening.
In spite of his bluster, Trump has never been particularly skillful at making deals, a deficiency observed and chronicled by one his former top executives in Atlantic City, John R. O’Donnell. In Atlantic City, Trump showed himself to be incredibly stupid about weighing a deal's downside risks against its potential rewards, and was afflicted with near- terminal overconfidence. Kim may sense that Trump is an easy mark. By having an American president come to negotiate, Kim Jong-un will achieve great prestige.
Kim no longer need to threaten the United States with destruction: Trump and the Republican Party are doing a fine job already. Prof. Johan Galtung - who correctly predicted that the Soviet Union would collapse by 1990 - had predicted that the US will collapse by 2025. After Trump’s election, however, Galtung revised his prediction: 2020. Trump’s tariffs, which will affect countries who finance the US national debt are likely to refuse to continue unless interest rates are increased. This would cause major damage to the US economy. Other nations are signing international trade agreements from which the US has been excluded. Considering the staggering and escalating national debt, failing US infrastructure, and tariffs, the possibility that the US dollar will be replaced as world reserve currency is real.
America’s allies seem to be coming to the conclusion that it can longer be trusted. Angela Merkel said, “The era in which we could fully rely on others is over to some extent. That’s what I experienced over the past several days… We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands — naturally in friendship with the United States of America, in friendship with Great Britain, as good neighbors with whoever, also with Russia and other countries.But we have to know that we Europeans must fight for our own future and destiny.”
Given Trump’s damage to America’s international relationships, Kim sees a golden opportunity. Prof, Galtung is not the only one who has predicted the decline of America. Chalmers Johnson predicted the same in his “Blowback Trilogy” as has Prof Alfred W. McCoy in his book, In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power, in which he write that “every significant trend points toward a striking decline in American global power by 2030.” The likeliest beneficiary would be China whose steady and accelerating rise will allow to challenge and ultimately supplant the United States as the most powerful economic, political, cultural, technological, and military force on the planet. McCoy viewed President Obama as a “grandmaster of the great game” of multilateral global Empire. His replacement by the blundering, offensive nationalist and and grossly incompetent Trump and his enabling by a corrupt Republican-dominated Congress will not bode well for the future of America.

George Kleinman:
当然,你读到的一切都是猜测。注意,韩国总统文在寅,选了他的两名亲信本周去朝鲜会见朝鲜领导人金正恩。显然某些事情正在暗中发生。

尽管吹的很牛,特朗普的商业能力从未特别突出,他的前任高管约翰r·奥唐纳在大西洋城见证并记录下了他的投资失败。在大西洋城,特朗普对投资项目的的风险和其潜在回报的权衡方面显露出了令人难以置信的愚蠢,并伴随着极度的自信。金正恩可能感觉到了特朗普是个傻逼。与其谈判可能很有搞头。

金正恩不再需要去威胁与破坏美国:特朗普和共和党自己就已经做得很好。教授约翰.加尔通曾经正确预测——1990年,苏联将会崩溃。他预测,到2025年,美国将会崩溃。然而,特朗普通过大选后加尔通修改预测提前为2020年。特朗普的关税政策,会影响到美国的债务融资除非加息,这将对美国的经济造成重大损害。而其他国家签署国际贸易协定cpttp,美国已被排除在外。考虑到数量惊人并在持续增加的国家债务,失败的基础设施和关税政策,美元作为世界储备货币的地位被取代的情形指日可待。

美国的盟友对美国也不再是信任。德国总理默克尔说,“我们可以完全依赖他人的时代已经结束。过去几天我经历的事情告诉我…我们欧洲人真正需要的是我们的命运在自己的手中,与美利坚合众国交好也好,与英国交好也好,或是哪个好邻居,比如俄罗斯和其他国家交好。但我们必须明白,我们欧洲人必须争取自己的未来和命运。”

在特朗普的损害美国的国际关系,金正恩看到一个绝佳的机会。教授加尔通不是唯一一个预测美国的衰落的人。查尔默斯 约翰逊也在他的“反弹三部曲”中作出相似预测,还有阿尔弗雷德·w·麦科伊教授在他的书中,《美国世纪的阴影:美国全球经济的兴衰》写道,“每一个重要事件的转折点都指向美国的全球力量到2030年会显著下降。“最有可能的受益者是中国稳定并加速崛起将有能力允许挑战并最终取代美国成为全球最强大的经济、政治、文化、科技、和军事力量。麦科伊教授认为奥巴马总统是一位领导美国与多国博弈的多边博弈大师。而他的继任者特朗普是一个浮躁、攻击性民族主义、腐败和严重不称职的总统和他举荐的由共和党主导的国也不会预示着美国美好的未来。

Habib Fanny, Political animal
Answered Sat
North Korea never planned to destroy America. They don’t have that capacity. And they would get destroyed in any nuclear war with us. They’re not stupid. They want nuclear weapons to deter us from invading them, as we do to every regime we don’t like.
North Korea wants relief from our sanctions. But I’m skeptical that they’ll agree to give up their nukes. They have seen what happened to Iraq and Libya. Their negotiating tactic will consist in trying to get us to lift the sanctions without them having to give up their nukes.
Even if they agree to denuclearization, there is little reason to believe that they would actually follow through on their promise. Iran is a different case because Iran has a functional economy. North Korea literally has only one card to play: their nukes. Yes, they have the capacity to kill possibly hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea (and possibly Japan) if they get into a war with us, but if they played that card, they would be guaranteeing obliteration or at the very least regime change. The nukes are their best asset, if they are to prevent us from invading, now or 15 years from now.
Nevertheless, I do think it’s worth exploring the possibility of a deal. So, I wish Trump good luck.

Habib Fanny:
1.朝鲜从未计划过摧毁美国,他们没有这种能力。而且他们会在任何一场核战争中被摧毁。他们不愚蠢。他们想要用核武器阻止我们侵略他们,就像我们对任何我们讨厌的政权所做的一样。
2.朝鲜希望解除我们的制裁。但我怀疑他们是否会同意放弃核武器,因为他们有伊拉克和利比亚这样的前车之鉴。他们的谈判策略将包括试图让我们解除制裁,而不让他们放弃核武器。
3.即使他们同意去核化,也没有理由相信他们会兑现他们的承诺。伊朗是个不同的案例,因为伊朗有成套的经济体系。而朝鲜实际上只有一张牌可以打:他们的核武器。是的,他们有能力在韩国(或者日本)杀死成千上万的平民,但如果他们与我们开战,如果他们发射核弹,他们就绝对会毁灭,或者至少政权更迭。如果他们能阻止我们入侵,那么核武器就是他们最好的资产。
不过,我认为没什么可能性达成协议。希望特朗普好运吧。

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