沙特人发现前路坎坷:也门是另一个“帝国坟场”

03-13 70 22439 jiangye111
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Saudis Find Out Hard Way: Yemen Is AnotherGraveyard of Empires
Invaders throughout history have thrownthemselves against the anvil, only to be left bloodied and defeated.

沙特人发现前路坎坷:也门是另一个“帝国坟场”
历史上的侵略者们都一头冲向铁砧,结果却头破血流惨败而归。



Young Yemeni man in port city of Aden.

港口城市亚丁的年轻也门人。

“The Saudis are trying to use a brick tosmash an anvil. They will destroy themselves, not Yemen.”
That’s how one of Yemen’s more prominenttribal sheikhs described Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen. The war will enterits fourth year this month. Its primary supporter, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammadbin Salman, boasted that it would last weeks or perhaps a few months. Thecampaign, which was christened “Operation Decisive Storm,” was meant to showoff Saudi Arabia’s military might by rapidly defeating the Houthi rebels—whoenjoy limited Iranian support—and reinstalling Yemen’s exiled president, AbdRabbo Mansur Hadi.

“沙特人正试图用砖头砸铁砧。他们将毁灭自己,而不是也门。”这是也门最著名的部落首领之一对沙特阿拉伯在也门的战争的描述。这场战争将于本月进入第4个年头。它的主要支持者沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼(Muhammad bin Salman)曾夸口说,这场战争可能只会持续几周或几个月。这场被命名为“果断风暴行动”的战役旨在通过迅速击败胡塞叛军——他们部分受到伊朗支持——并扶持也门流亡总统阿卜杜·拉布·曼苏尔·哈迪(Abd Rabbo Mansur Hadi)重新上台,以展示沙特的军事实力。

The war, which is commonly referred to inSaudi Arabia as Muhammad bin Salman’s war, was meant to mark the ambitiousyoung prince’s debut on both the national and international stages. It was alsosupposed to check what Saudi Arabia views as growing Iranian influence in theregion.

这场战争,在沙特阿拉伯通常被称为穆罕默德•本•萨尔曼(Muhammad bin Salman)的战争,是为了彰显这位雄心勃勃的年轻王子在国家和国际舞台上的首次亮相。这场战争同样也被期望用来检验沙特阿拉伯对伊朗在该地区日益增长的影响力的看法。

Instead, it’s shown Saudi Arabia’s lavishlyfunded and equipped army to be a paper tiger incapable of even defending theKingdom’s southern border from sandal-clad rebels equipped with nothing morethan light and medium arms. Rather than checking Iranian influence, the war mayforce the Houthis, whose relationship with Iran has heretofore been limited, toenhance their dealings with Tehran. Most critically, it has resulted in whatcould be the permanent fragmentation of Yemen. That country’s strategiclocation along the Bab al-Mandab, just across from the Horn of Africa, and longborder with Saudi Arabia mean that the instability in Yemen will be hard, ifnot impossible, to contain.

然而,这场战争反而显示了沙特阿拉伯资金充足,装备精良的军队是一只纸老虎,甚至不能保卫王国的南部边界免受未装备重武器的武装分子的袭扰。更不用谈抑制伊朗的影响力了,这场战争可能会迫使胡塞叛军加强与伊朗的交往,而胡塞与伊朗的关系迄今为止一直是有限的。最关键的是,这导致了也门可能的永久分裂。这个国家位于非洲之角,与沙特阿拉伯拥有漫长的边境线,这个国家的战略位置意味着,也门不稳定的局势即使不是完全不可能,也将会很难得以控制。

This instability and a plethora ofunintended and unforeseen consequences are already in evidence along theSaudi-Yemeni border. Saudi Arabia’s military has thus far been unable to securethat border. Hours of footage of the Houthis’ retaliatory attacks on Saudiborder posts and other military installations well inside the Saudi provincesof Najran, Jizan, and Asir have been posted on YouTube and other sites. In manyof these videos, Saudi forces, even though they are equipped with M1 Abramstanks and armored personnel carriers, flee in disarray when engaged by ahandful of Houthis armed with RPGs and Kalashnikovs.

这种不稳定和大量意想不到的意外后果已经在沙特和也门的边境上得到了证实。到目前为止,沙特阿拉伯的军队一直无法保证边境安全。长达数小时的胡塞对沙特边境哨所和其他位于纳贾兰、吉赞和阿西尔的军事设施的报复性攻击录像,已经被上传到YouTube和其他网站上。在很多视频中,虽然沙特军队装备了M1艾布拉姆斯坦克和装甲车,但在与少数胡塞武装人员的战斗中,他们却陷入了混乱。

These southern Saudi provinces are home torestive and frequently oppressed religious minorities that include Zaidis andIsmailis—both of which are branches of Shi’ism that are different from thepredominate branch in Iran. The Saudi government has little control over partsof these provinces and, as such, they are ripe for revolt if there is weaknesswithin the House of Saud. Thousands of Yemenis who have had their livelihoodsand loved ones destroyed by Saudi bombs would be quick to aid such a revolt.

这些南部的沙特省份都是不安分的、经常受压迫的宗教少数派的家园,这些少数民族包括扎伊迪派和伊斯玛仪派,他们都是什叶派的分支,与伊朗的主流分支不同。沙特政府对这些省份的部分地区几乎没有控制权,因此,如果沙特内部存在弱点,他们就有可能反叛。成千上万的生计和亲人被沙特的炸弹毁灭的也门人,很快就能帮助他们反抗。

Rather than relying on its poorly trainedand ineffective army, Saudi Arabia has used its air force to pummel Yemen. TheSaudi-led campaign, which is reliant on mid-air refueling capabilities from theU.S., has devastated Yemen’s infrastructure, targeted and destroyed much ofYemen’s once-productive farmland, and killed hundreds of civilians. As a resultof the air war and sanctions, Yemen now faces the world’s worst humanitariancrisis. More than 80 percent of Yemen’s population of 26 million requiresurgent aid. Photos and videos of starving children and emaciated adults are inclear evidence on Twitter and international news sites.

沙特阿拉伯没有依靠其缺乏训练、效率低下的陆军,而是利用其空军来打击也门。沙特领导的这场战役依赖于美国的空中加油能力,这场战役摧毁了也门的基础设施,摧毁了也门曾经多产的农田,并杀死了数百名平民。由于空袭和制裁,也门现在面临着世界上最严重的人道主义危机。在也门2600万人口中,超过80%的人需要紧急援助。推特和国际新闻网站上饥饿的儿童和瘦弱的成人的照片和视频都是清晰的证据。

In South Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and UAE backedmilitias—ranging from southern separatists to militant Salafi groups that areindistinguishable from al-Qaeda—are competing with one another to secureinfluence and access to the weapons and materiel provided by their backers.Aden, the de-facto capital for Yemen’s powerless government in exile, is nowthe scene of almost daily assassinations and bombings. The most recent attackon February 24 involved two Islamic State suicide bombers and killed 14 people.Most of the assassinations, which have targeted clerics, security personnel,and tribal elites, are unclaimed.

在也门南部,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋支持的民兵组织——从南部分裂分子到与基地组织没有区别的激进萨拉菲组织——都在相互竞争,以确保其影响力和获取武器及物资的途径。亚丁是也门软弱无能的流亡政府的首都,现在几乎每天都有刺杀和爆炸事件发生。2月24日发生的最新一起袭击事件涉及两名伊斯兰国的自杀式炸弹袭击者,造成14人死亡。大多数暗杀行动都是针对神职人员、安全人员和部落精英的。

There is almost no place in the south thatis secure against these kinds of attacks. Only in the north, where the Houthisare allied with Yemen’s former ruling party, the General People’s Congress, isthere a semblance of security. But there, the Houthis increasingly rule with aniron fist. They have targeted journalists and, in the wake of the assassinationof Yemen’s former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, for which the Houthis wereresponsible, executed many of Saleh’s supporters.

在南方,几乎没有地方可以抵抗这种类型的袭击。只有在北部,胡塞与也门的前执政党——人民代表大会结盟,才有了表面上的安全。但在那里,胡塞的统治越来越铁腕化。他们已经瞄上记者,在也门前总统阿里·阿卜杜拉·萨利赫(Ali Abdullah Saleh)被胡塞组织暗杀后,萨利赫的许多支持者被处决。

Still, many in northern Yemen respect theHouthis for their continued ability to defy Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both ofwhich are increasingly viewed as colonizers by Yemenis in the north and thesouth. Yemenis living in the north also fear the chaos and violence that couldengulf their home if the Houthis are defeated. The Houthis and the parts of theYemeni army that are allied with them have acted as an effective bulwarkagainst al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State. Priorto the start of “Operation Decisive Storm,” a Houthi-led offensive against AQAPhad weakened the organization in a number of its traditional strongholds. Now,AQAP is resurgent across much of southern Yemen where its operatives areovertly and covertly enmeshed with many of the anti-Houthi forces.

尽管如此,也门北部的许多人仍然尊重胡塞叛军,继续反抗沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋,这两个国家越来越被也门人认为是也门北部和南部的殖民者。居住在北方的也门人也担心,如果胡塞被击败,混乱和暴力将会吞没他们的家园。胡塞和与他们结盟的也门军队在阿拉伯半岛基地组织分支(AQAP)和伊斯兰国组织中起到了有效的抵御基地组织的作用。在“果断风暴行动”开始之前,胡塞领导的针对阿拉伯半岛基地组织分支的进攻已经削弱了该组织在一些传统据点的势力。现在,基地组织在也门南部的大部分地区死灰复燃,那里的基地成员公开或秘密地与许多反胡塞武装分子纠缠在一起。

To combat a resurgent AQAP, the UAE and itsproxy forces have launched a new campaign aptly named “Operation Decisive Sword.”Given the deepening humanitarian crisis and ever-increasing factionalism inYemen, Operation Decisive Sword will be no more decisive than Muhammad binSalman’s Operation Decisive Storm. What may well be decisive is the defeat ofboth Saudi and Emirati ambitions in Yemen.

为了打击死灰复燃的阿拉伯基地组织,阿联酋和其代理部队发起了一场名为“果断之剑行动”的新战役。考虑到也门日益严重的人道主义危机和日益加剧的派系斗争,“果断之剑行动”将不会比穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼的“果断风暴行动”更强硬。而说起来沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋在也门的野心的失败才是“果断”的。

It is estimated that the war in Yemen iscosting Saudi Arabia $5 to $6 billion a month. This comes at a time when theKingdom is already struggling to maintain its generous social welfare programsthat are critical to the House of Saud’s continued hold on power. The UAE, too,is spending billions in Yemen, much of it on the private military contractorsthat are helping it run its war. In the case of the UAE, the government seemsto view the billions that it is spending as an investment that will allow it tocarve out a permanent sphere of influence in Yemen. The UAE, perhaps more thanSaudi Arabia, recognizes that Yemen is incredibly valuable real estate. Thegovernorates where the UAE and its proxies are most active are the areas thatare richest in natural resources.

据估计,也门战争使沙特阿拉伯每月损失50到60亿美元。而于此同时,沙特王国已经在艰难地维持其优越的社会福利计划,而这些计划对沙特王室继续掌权至关重要。阿联酋也在也门花费了数十亿美元,其中很大一部分支付给了帮助其发动战争的私人军事承包商。以阿联酋为例,该国政府似乎将其战争开销的数十亿美元视为一项将使其在也门获得永久的影响力投资。阿联酋或许比沙特阿拉伯更能意识到,也门是极具价值的“不动产”。阿联酋及其代理人最活跃的地方正是自然资源最丰富的地区。

However, it is only a matter of time untilthe UAE-backed militias turn on their patron. The rhetoric in southern Yemen isalready infused with descriptions of the UAE as a neo-colonial power intent onasset stripping. The UAE has already set up a military base on theonce-pristine Yemeni island of Socotra, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. It hasalso set up permanent bases on the Yemeni island of Perim in the Red Sea.Social media in Yemen is rife with pictures of UAE military parades in Socotra,of the base in Perim, and, most recently, a photo of dozens of dragon’s bloodtrees, native to Socotra, that had been stripped from the island. No doubt thethreatened trees are destined to become part of the landscaping for a palacesomewhere in the Gulf. These kinds of photos, along with the abuses perpetratedby the UAE and their proxies, will in time produce a violent reaction.

然而,由阿联酋支持的民兵组织向他们的后台老板求助,只是时间问题。在也门南部,阿联酋已经被描述成是一个意图掠夺也门资产的新殖民主义力量。阿联酋已经建立了一个军事基地,位于最初曾经属于也门的索科特拉岛,这里是联合国教科文组织认定的世界遗产。它还在红海的也门丕林岛上建立了永久基地。也门的社交媒体上充斥着阿联酋军队在丕林岛基地的索科特拉岛上阅兵的照片,并且就在最近,一张拍摄了几十棵原产于索科特拉岛的龙血树的照片显示这些树被从岛上掠夺走。毫无疑问,这些受到威胁的树木注定要成为海湾地区某个宫殿的景观美化的一部分。这类照片,以及阿联酋及其代理人犯下的恶行,将会迅速引发暴力回应。

Saudi Arabia and the UAE should haveexamined the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In both countries, despitehaving the best trained and equipped military in the world, the U.S. has failedto achieve its aims. In the case of Iraq, a deeply flawed strategy ended upempowering Iran by turning much of Iraq into a satellite state. In Afghanistan,the war has resulted in the deaths of nearly 2,300 U.S. soldiers and tens ofthousands of Afghans. It has also cost the U.S. well over a trillion dollars.Despite the expenditure of lives and treasure, the Taliban—who are active in 70percent of Afghanistan’s provinces—are on track to once again become thepreeminent power.

沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋应该研究一下美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的战争。尽管拥有世界上最好的训练有素的军队,但美国未能在这两个国家实现其目标。在伊拉克问题上,一项有严重缺陷的战略最终使大部分伊拉克变成了伊朗的一个卫星国,从而使伊朗势力得以增强。在阿富汗,这场战争导致近2300名美国士兵和数万阿富汗人丧生。这也使美国损失了1万亿美元。尽管付出了生命财产代价,在阿富汗70%的省份都处于活跃状态的塔利班,正在有望再次成为阿富汗最强大的力量。

The U.S. can absorb these losses because ofthe size of its economy, the strength of its military, and the complacency ofmuch of its population. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will find itfar more difficult to sustain a war effort that does not yield results. Onaccount of their proximity to Yemen, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are far morelikely to experience significant and direct blowback from a war that has madetens of thousands of well-armed Yemenis their enemies.

美国可以承受这些损失,因为它的经济规模、军队的实力以及大部分人口的自我满足感。而像沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋这样的国家会发现,要维持一场打不完的战争,要困难得多。考虑到他们与也门的关系,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋都更有可能经历一场严重的战争副作用——这场战争使数万名装备精良的也门人成为他们的敌人。

Yemen is an anvil against which a number ofinvaders have thrown themselves only to be left bloodied and defeated. From theRomans in 25 BC to the Egyptians in the 1960s, Yemen has long resistedinvaders. The governments of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE would do well torecognize that their adventure is far more likely to break them than theYemenis who have defied occupiers and invading armies for centuries.

也门是一个铁砧,许多入侵者只得到了血和被击败的后果。从公元前25年的罗马人到20世纪60年代的埃及人,也门一直抵抗侵略者。沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的政府都将会很深刻地认识到,他们的冒险行为更有可能使他们自己遭到更大损失,而不是那些蔑视占领者和侵略军长达几个世纪的也门人。

As the always astute Yemeni commentatorHaykal Bafana argues:
Academics, analysts and journalists areperpetually perplexed by the primal vortex of chaos that is Yemen. Wisdom is torealize that this confusing Yemeni enigma, which continuously eludesunderstanding, is the Yemen Model, defined.

正如一向精明的也门评论员海卡尔·巴考纳(HaykalBafana)辩称的那样:
学者、分析人士和记者总是对也门混乱的最初原因感到困惑。明智的做法是要认识到,这个令人困惑的、无法理解的也门谜题,正是对也门模式的定义。

Outsiders may not understand Yemen butYemenis certainly do and it is they who will, in time, have to end the conflictand begin rebuilding their country. The longer outside powers are in Yemen, thelonger this process will be put off and the more danger will be posed to SaudiArabia and the UAE.

局外人可能不理解也门,但也门人确实是这样做的,他们迟早要结束冲突,开始重建他们的国家。也门遭到外部力量干预越久,这个过程就越被拖延,对沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的威胁也就越大。

 
评论翻译
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Fazal Majid says:
March5, 2018 at 11:44 pm
The North Yemenites are hardy mountainpeople like the Afghans, or the Swiss. This seems to breed strong resistance toforeign invaders.

北也门人是像阿富汗人,或者瑞士人一样的坚韧的山地人。这种民族特性似乎对外国侵略者产生了强烈的抵抗。

Lenny says:
March5, 2018 at 11:55 pm
What a load of baloney
The Saudi won the first war against Nasserand they will win this one too.
Too many tribes in Yemen have blood tieswith Saudi Arabia. It is not the same as a complete foreigner invading thecountry

胡扯什么
沙特赢得了第一次与纳赛尔的战争,他们也将赢得这场战争。也门有太多的部落与沙特阿拉伯有血缘关系。这和一个完全的外国入侵是不一样的

Alan says:
March6, 2018 at 2:44 am
Question not can covered in this article
Why is USA and the UK supporting this war?
It can’t just be for arms sales?
What is the strategic objective of this war

这篇文章中没有涉及到的问题:
为什么美国和英国支持这场战争?
它不仅仅是为了销售武器?
这场战争的战略目标是什么

Procopius says:
March6, 2018 at 8:35 am
In both countries, despite having the besttrained and equipped military in the world, the U.S. has failed to achieve itsaims.
The U.S. has aims in Iraq and Afghanistan?If you happen to find out what they are, would you let us know? The things theyhave said are their aims are so absurd as to be unbelievable.

“尽管拥有世界上最好的训练有素的军队,但美国未能在这两个国家实现其目标。”
美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的目标是什么?如果你碰巧知道它们是什么,你会让我们知道吗?他们说的是他们的目标是如此的荒谬以至于难以置信。

Mark Bruijn says:
March6, 2018 at 4:19 pm
@Alan
Why is the USA supporting this war?
continuing control of the flow of oil from the ME, making money,Iran-hate/paranoia, empire-habit. Considering the strategic objective: there ispropably not a real one, since there has not been a clear and sound strategicUS geopolitic strategy since the invasion of Iraq.
Why is the UK supporting this war?
Because the UK is the poodle of the US, to say it nicely. They lift along onthe American bandwagon to enjoy the illusion of power and might (empire).

@Alan
为什么美国支持这场战争?
继续控制来自中东的石油市场流动,赚钱,仇视伊朗,帝国的习惯。思考战略目标:可能并没有一个真正的战略目标,因为自入侵伊拉克以来,没有一个明确且可靠的美国地缘政治战略。
为什么英国支持这场战争?
说好听一点就是:因为英国是美国的贵宾犬。他们沿着美国的潮流走,享受着权力和(帝国)威势的幻觉。

Someone in the crowd says:
March6, 2018 at 6:36 pm
Thank goodness we have a strong free press.That is why CNN and MSNBC, FOX, PBS (etc.) relentlessly and courageously blastthe US government every single night for bringing about the humanitariancatastrophe in Yemen.
(That’s when they can spare a moment fromtheir relentless criticism of Saudi Arabia, of course.)
And now, back to reality.

谢天谢地,我们有一个强大的自由媒体。这就是为什么CNN和微软全国广播公司、福克斯、PBS(等等)每天晚上都要无情地、勇敢地猛烈抨击美国政府带给也门人道主义灾难。
(当然,他们是从他们对沙特阿拉伯的无情批评中抽出一点时间来批评美国的。)
现在,回到现实吧。

Annab says:
March7, 2018 at 12:22 pm
The Yemenis do not like Saudi Arabia! If noone in our illustrious State Department ascertained that from their tours ofduty in Yemen, I must say that they were not terribly observant! That theSaudis have destroyed Sanaa is a rallying point for Yemenis to resist everycountry involved in that debacle no matter who they have to ally themselveswith temporarily. It is absolutely a no-win situation. If they can shuck theirSaudi chains, they can certainly shuck their Iranian chains later! I haveconfidence that this country will prevail; a country whose citizens can subsiston the equivalent of 50 dollars a month, reproduce to the point that more thanhalf of the population is 18 years or younger with that 50 dollars a month, andwith not much oil or gas or other natural resources to sustain them.

也门人不喜欢沙特阿拉伯!如果我们杰出的国务院没有人从他们在也门的任务中确定他们的职责,我必须说他们并不特别善于观察。沙特已经摧毁了萨那(译注:也门首都),这成了也门人的一个爆发点,他们以此抵抗任何卷入这场灾难的国家,尽管他们不得不暂时地与自己结盟。这绝对是一个没有赢家的局面。如果他们能挣脱沙特的锁链,他们肯定也会在以后挣脱伊朗的锁链!我相信这个国家会获胜;一个本国公民可以以每月50美元的价格维持生计的国家——这个国家的人口超过一半人口只有18岁或更年轻,每个月只有50美元,而且没有多少石油、天然气或其他自然资源来维持他们的生活。

rosemerry says:
March7, 2018 at 1:32 pm
“The U.S. can absorb these losses becauseof the size of its economy, the strength of its military, and the complacencyof much of its population.” This tells us a lot about a country. Big means wedo what we like, we spend more on arms, we could not care less about 99% of ourpopulation, and half of them never vote in our “democracy” because they feelthey have no influence, and they are correct.

“美国可以承受这些损失,因为它的经济规模、军队的实力以及大部分人口的自我满足感。”这告诉我们很多关于一个国家的事情。大的意思是我们做我们喜欢的事情,我们在武器上花费更多,我们不关心我们99%的人口,而且有一半的人从来没有在我们的“民主”制度下投票,因为他们觉得他们没有影响力,而且他们是正确的。

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