【上】老外提问:美国能否在未来五十年阻止中国成为世界最大经济体
2019-07-09 zzz9066 31178
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原文地址:https://www.quora.com/
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原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:zzz9066 转载请注明出处

Can the US prevent China from becoming the world's largest economy within the next 50 years?

【上】美国能否在未来五十年阻止中国成为世界最大经济体


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原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:zzz9066 转载请注明出处

David McDonald, Undergraduate Economics & Public Management, University of Guelph (2020)
圭尔夫大学经济学与公共管理本科生(2020)

The US alone doesn’t have the global influence they once had, and because of this, they cannot prevent China from becoming the world’s largest economy, which will happen a lot sooner than 50 years from now.

美国已不再具备他们曾今拥有的影响力,因此,他们无法阻止中国成为世界上最大的经济体,而这将在不到50年内发生。



China's Rise

中国的崛起

How has China become such a dominant economic power? Part of the reason is its booming auto industry. To illustrate, the total number of autos sold last year in China was 24.6 million. This dwarfs total auto sales in the U.S. last year, which hit a record 17.5 million cars and trucks. In addition, SUV sales in China increased a whopping 52% in 2015. China’s auto industry is thriving and should provide stiff competition for U.S. auto manufacturers in the years ahead. Unless the U.S. government levies high tariffs on imports to equalize prices between Chinese autos and those made in America. It is important to remember that the cost of production (labor included) is much lower in China.

中国是如何成为经济强国的?部分原因是其蓬勃发展的汽车工业。举例来说,去年中国汽车总销量为2460万辆。这个数据使得美国去年的汽车总销量显得渺小,美国去年的汽车销量达到创纪录的1750万辆。此外,2015年SUV在中国的销量增长了52%。中国汽车工业正在蓬勃发展,未来几年应该会给美国汽车制造商带来激烈的竞争。除非美国政府对进口产品征收高额关税,以平衡中国产汽车和美国产汽车的价格。很重要的一点是,中国的生产成本(包括劳动力)要低得多。

The world’s economy is changing and globalization is alive and well. There will likely be a large number of new trade agreements in the months ahead as well as an increase in U.S. based companies deriving revenue overseas. Gone are the days when it was sufficient for investment analysts to analyze trends in the U.S., to the exclusion of foreign markets. In the current “global” climate, we must recognize how foreign companies will compete with U.S. corporations. Rising globalization should result in greater competition. If the federal government does not levy new and increased tariffs on imported goods, the added competition will result in lower prices for the consumer. However, I wouldn’t get too optimistic about a lack of tariffs. The federal government will likely view this as a source of revenue and a way to help its constituents rather than allow cheap imports to flood the U.S. Perhaps Americans will be buying more goods online, directly from foreign companies. Does UPS or FedEx FDX -1.37% deliver cars? It could happen.

世界经济正在发生变化,全球化蓬勃发展。未来几个月可能会有大量新的贸易协定出台,同时美国企业海外营收也会增加。分析师忽略外国市场来分析美国行业动态的日子已经一去不复返了,在当前的“全球”气候下,我们必须认识到外国公司将如何与美国公司竞争。日益增长的全球化应导致更大的竞争。如果联邦政府不对进口商品征收新的和更高的关税,更多的竞争会让消费者花费更少的钱。然而,我并不看好取消关税。联邦政府可能会把这视为一种收入来源,一种增加选民的方式,而不是让廉价进口商品充斥美国。也许美国人将在网上直接从外国公司购买更多的商品。那么UPS或联邦快递会送货上门吗?可能吧。

Randall Burns, Economic Journalist at VDARE.com
VDARE网站经济记者

The US could either nuke China into oblivion or haul out ethnically specific biological weapons aimed at China. I doubt either would advance US interests in the long run.

美国要么用核武器消灭中国,要么拿出针对中国的特定种族的生化武器。从长远来看,我怀疑这两种做法都不会促进美国的利益。

The US has had economic strength because of
a) oceans that protected it from foreign invasion/interference
b) a large natural resource base
c) stable government
d) capacity as an engine of innovation.

美国之所以拥有经济实力,是因为
a)能够保护它免受外国入侵/干涉的海洋
b)自然资源基础雄厚
c)稳定的政府
d)作为创新引擎的能力。



Adrian Patterson, Analyst at Financial Services
金融服务分析师

Remember what happened to Japan in the late eighties. At one point the Japanese were going round buying up Hollywood. They were arguably the most advanced country technologically, had a thriving export economy, an obsession with educational achievement and gadgetry. In other words with all the supposed levers of economic success in their back pocket it was only a matter of time before they took over the US as the top economy in the world, but it never happened. It's not an original idea but China could turn out to be another Japan. It's not a done deal.

还记得80年代末日本发生了什么吗?日本人一度四处收购好莱坞。可以说他们曾经是技术最先进的国家,出口经济繁荣,痴迷于教育成就和一些小玩意。换句话说,凭借着腰包里所有经济成功的手段,他们取代美国成为世界头号经济体只是时间问题,但这从未发生过。这不是一个原创的想法,但中国可能会变成另一个日本。这还不是板上钉钉的事。
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