美国经济似乎正走向与日本相同的道路
2019-08-10 zzz9066 23816
原文地址
原文地址:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-seems-to-be-heading-down-same-path-as-japan-economist-152203833.html
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(日本银行)

The 10-year Treasury bill (^TNX) is bouncing back off recent lows as worries over a global slowdown and a fight over China’s yuan start to ease. But don’t expect interest rates to rise much further in this environment, says former Federal Reserve insider Vincent Reinhart. In fact, the U.S. economy could soon look a lot more like Japan’s.

随着对全球经济放缓和人民币汇率之争的担忧开始缓解,10年期美国国债正从近期低点反弹。但前美联储内部人士文森特 莱因哈特说,在这种环境下,别指望利率会进一步大幅上升。事实上,美国经济可能很快就会变得像日本经济一样。

“In an environment in which the market’s not growing, it’s hard to see where capital gets a return,” Reinhart, the chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon, told Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “We have $15 trillion of sovereign debt around the world trading at negative rates, that’s pretty compelling. If you have that many alternatives that look so unattractive, it means capital is coming into the U.S. and pulling down our rates.”

“在市场没有增长的环境下,很难看到资本能从哪里得到回报。”梅隆银行首席经济学家兼宏观策略师莱因哈特在接受雅虎财经的第一交易采访时表示。“我们有15万亿美元的主权债务在世界各地以负利率交易,这非常值得关注。如果你有那么多看起来毫无吸引力的选择,那就意味着资本正在涌入美国,并拉低我们的利率。”



The U.S. isn’t yet seeing a population decline, but the latest Census figures show population growth last year fell to its lowest level since 1937. Productivity remains strong, coming in at 3.4% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

美国还没有出现人口下降,但最新的人口普查数据显示,去年的人口增长降至1937年以来的最低水平。美国劳工统计局的数据显示,劳动生产率依然强劲,2019年第一季度为3.4%。

Still, Reinhart says the demographic shifts in the U.S. signal a Japan-like economic environment “seems to be where the U.S. is headed.”

不过,莱因哈特说,美国人口结构的变化表明,类似日本的经济环境“似乎是美国发展的方向”。
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Larry
The FED is continuing to lower rates to combat a slowing economy. The 10 year benchmark government bond is currently yielding 1.7%. Do interest rates need to go below an already low 1.7% to get the economy to improve? How low can we go.

美联储继续降息以应对经济放缓。10年期国债目前的收益率为1.7%。利率是否需要降至1.7%以下才能使经济好转?我们能降多低。

santani
Besides the population problem, skewed income distribution -- with larger and larger proportions of national income going to those with a higher marginal propensity to save/invest (rather than consume) -- means that the supply of capital is much greater than economically required; thus, returns will be lower than they would otherwise be. Right now, a great proportion of that bloated capital is being borrowed by consumers and governments in an attempt to stimulate aggregate demand for goods and services. The problem is that those debt loads are not indefinitely sustainable. Something will have to give.

除了人口问题,收入分配失衡,国民收入越来越多地流向那些边际储蓄/投资倾向(而非消费倾向)更高的人,这意味着资本供应远远大于经济需求。因此,回报率将低于原本的水平。目前,膨胀的资本中有很大一部分是由消费者和政府借贷的,目的是刺激对商品和服务的总需求。问题在于,这些债务负担并不是无限期可持续的。总得做点什么的。



ThinkDeep
Could lower interest rates have anything to do with massive U.S. debt?

低利率是否与美国的巨额债务有关?

ER Jones, Author
With interest rates going to zero, the income inequality aspects in the US will be exacerbated. If you are not working in an industry that benefits from cheap capital, you are screwed. Bankers, venture capitalists, developers, commercial real estate brokers, etc will continue to see increasing incomes while worker bees attempting to live within their means and save money (earning zero or close to zero on their savings) will suffer.

随着利率趋近于零,美国的收入不平等状况将会加剧。如果你不是在一个受益于廉价资本的行业工作,你就完蛋了。银行家、风险投资家、开发商、商业房地产经纪人等的收入将继续增长,而试图量入为出、存钱(储蓄为零或接近零)的一般工人则会受到影响。

David
Remember when Obama said we have a 2% economy? Well we still do and that's pretty good compared to Japan. Trump's whopping tax cuts goosed GDP to around 3% but that's temporary and this article explains why. But will Trumptards read and understand? Nope.

还记得奥巴马说我们的经济增长只有2%吗?我们现在仍然是这样,与日本相比,这已经相当不错了。特朗普大幅减税将GDP推高至3%左右,但这只是暂时的,本文解释了原因。但特朗普的支持者能读懂吗?不存在的。

Ronald
Wow, they're not lowering the interest rates for a slowing economy they're lowering the interest rates to combat the trade War oh, did you not hear that China is manipulating their currency or you under a rock for the last 25 years

哇,他们不是在因为经济放缓而降低利率,他们是为了打贸易战,你没听说过中国在操纵他们的货币吗,还是说你在石头下面生活了25年。

George
This is so obviously wrong,. We invented Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google. What has Japan invented?

这显然是错的。我们发明了苹果,微软,亚马逊,谷歌。日本发明了什么?



B
A stalled economy. Lack of wage increases. Higher inflation. Reduced population growth. Exploding national debt. Increasing gap in wealth. The future's so bright I gotta wear shades. Or pull down the shades.

停滞不前的经济。工资增长乏力。更高的通货通胀。人口增长率降低。爆炸的国家债务。贫富差距扩大。未来太过耀眼,我必须得戴上墨镜。或者拉下窗帘。

kontroll
with all the US manufacturing jobs going to asia, a declining US popul;ation is actually welcome news

随着美国制造业就业岗位全部流向亚洲,美国人口的下降实际上是一个可喜的消息。

Sofa
People are wising up to the fact that there is a war against the american worker and labor. More children makes you vulnerable and 2 people working will only result in a family living paycheck to paycheck. Education, work experience, productivity and loyalty have all failed the american worker.

人们逐渐意识到有一场针对美国工人和劳工的战争。更多的孩子会让你变得脆弱,只有两个人工作只会让一个家庭的收入越来越少。教育、工作经验、生产力和忠诚度都让美国工人失望。

Crop
No kidding, keep cutting taxes, cut services, cut trading partners, stop investing in education, infrastructure, technology. GOP/Conservative economic ideas ALWAYS leads to recession.

不开玩笑,继续减税,削减服务,削减贸易伙伴,停止对教育、基础设施和技术的投资。共和党/保守派的经济理念总是导致经济衰退。



chris
I would just like to point out that China owns over a trillion in 10 and 30 year treasury bonds they bought during the fake aluminum tube war and it would be disasterous and utterly tactical if they turned in those bonds, even the immature ones. Obviously the US government is not solvent, so we can’t pay the bill

我想指出的是,中国拥有超过一万亿的10年期和30年期美国国债,他们是在假铝管战争期间购买的,如果他们战术性地抛售那些债券,那将会是毁灭性的,即使是那些没到期的债券。很明显,美国政府没有偿付能力,所以我们无法付账。
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