2019-08-10 zzz9066 25206
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The 10-year Treasury bill (^TNX) is bouncing back off recent lows as worries over a global slowdown and a fight over China’s yuan start to ease. But don’t expect interest rates to rise much further in this environment, says former Federal Reserve insider Vincent Reinhart. In fact, the U.S. economy could soon look a lot more like Japan’s.

随着对全球经济放缓和人民币汇率之争的担忧开始缓解,10年期美国国债正从近期低点反弹。但前美联储内部人士文森特 莱因哈特说,在这种环境下,别指望利率会进一步大幅上升。事实上,美国经济可能很快就会变得像日本经济一样。

“In an environment in which the market’s not growing, it’s hard to see where capital gets a return,” Reinhart, the chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon, told Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “We have $15 trillion of sovereign debt around the world trading at negative rates, that’s pretty compelling. If you have that many alternatives that look so unattractive, it means capital is coming into the U.S. and pulling down our rates.”


The U.S. isn’t yet seeing a population decline, but the latest Census figures show population growth last year fell to its lowest level since 1937. Productivity remains strong, coming in at 3.4% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Still, Reinhart says the demographic shifts in the U.S. signal a Japan-like economic environment “seems to be where the U.S. is headed.”

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The FED is continuing to lower rates to combat a slowing economy. The 10 year benchmark government bond is currently yielding 1.7%. Do interest rates need to go below an already low 1.7% to get the economy to improve? How low can we go.


Besides the population problem, skewed income distribution -- with larger and larger proportions of national income going to those with a higher marginal propensity to save/invest (rather than consume) -- means that the supply of capital is much greater than economically required; thus, returns will be lower than they would otherwise be. Right now, a great proportion of that bloated capital is being borrowed by consumers and governments in an attempt to stimulate aggregate demand for goods and services. The problem is that those debt loads are not indefinitely sustainable. Something will have to give.


Could lower interest rates have anything to do with massive U.S. debt?


ER Jones, Author
With interest rates going to zero, the income inequality aspects in the US will be exacerbated. If you are not working in an industry that benefits from cheap capital, you are screwed. Bankers, venture capitalists, developers, commercial real estate brokers, etc will continue to see increasing incomes while worker bees attempting to live within their means and save money (earning zero or close to zero on their savings) will suffer.


Remember when Obama said we have a 2% economy? Well we still do and that's pretty good compared to Japan. Trump's whopping tax cuts goosed GDP to around 3% but that's temporary and this article explains why. But will Trumptards read and understand? Nope.


Wow, they're not lowering the interest rates for a slowing economy they're lowering the interest rates to combat the trade War oh, did you not hear that China is manipulating their currency or you under a rock for the last 25 years


This is so obviously wrong,. We invented Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google. What has Japan invented?


A stalled economy. Lack of wage increases. Higher inflation. Reduced population growth. Exploding national debt. Increasing gap in wealth. The future's so bright I gotta wear shades. Or pull down the shades.


with all the US manufacturing jobs going to asia, a declining US popul;ation is actually welcome news


People are wising up to the fact that there is a war against the american worker and labor. More children makes you vulnerable and 2 people working will only result in a family living paycheck to paycheck. Education, work experience, productivity and loyalty have all failed the american worker.


No kidding, keep cutting taxes, cut services, cut trading partners, stop investing in education, infrastructure, technology. GOP/Conservative economic ideas ALWAYS leads to recession.


I would just like to point out that China owns over a trillion in 10 and 30 year treasury bonds they bought during the fake aluminum tube war and it would be disasterous and utterly tactical if they turned in those bonds, even the immature ones. Obviously the US government is not solvent, so we can’t pay the bill

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