为什么英国经济比其他国家遭受的损失更大?
2022-07-07 jiangye111 8565
正文翻译
Why is the UK economy suffering more than other countries?

为什么英国经济比其他国家遭受的损失更大?



新闻:

Up until now it has been difficult to pick out much difference between the UK's economic numbers and those across Europe and the world.

到目前为止,还很难看出英国的经济数据与欧洲乃至全世界的数据有多大不同。

The size of the common global economic shocks from the pandemic and from Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been the overwhelming driver of high inflation and slower growth for most European countries.

疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对全球经济造成的共同冲击之大,是导致大多数欧洲国家高通胀和增长放缓的主要原因。

But in recent days, the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has warned inflation is set to be higher for longer here in the UK, and growth in the economy weaker too.

但最近几天,英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利警告称,英国的通货膨胀率将在更长时间内保持较高水平,经济增长也将更加疲弱。

These gloomy forecasts echoed those made by the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which has 38 member countries.

这些悲观的预测与国际货币基金组织和拥有38个成员国的经济合作与发展组织的预测相呼应。

On Wednesday, Mr Bailey told a European Central Bank forum that "the UK economy is probably weakening rather earlier and somewhat more than others".

周三,贝利在欧洲央行的一个论坛上表示,“英国经济走弱的时间可能比其他国家更早,而且程度更严重。”
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He said: "I think that's been somewhat evident now for a few months."

他说:“我认为这几个月来这一点已经很明显了。”

And on inflation he said that as things stand, he would expect more persistence in the headline rate because of the UK's energy price cap system. This suppressed inflation earlier in the year but raised it later on.

在通胀问题上,他表示,鉴于英国的能源价格上限制度,他预计整体通胀率将更加持久。这在今年早些时候抑制了通胀,但随后又提高了通胀。
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Retailers too have said they have started to expect different outcomes for the UK versus the rest of the Europe. The boss of the owner of Boots, Stefano Pessina, said he suspected the UK "will have a big recession, probably bigger than other European countries".

零售商们也表示,他们已经开始预期英国与欧洲其他国家的结果会有所不同。Boots的老板斯特凡诺·佩西纳表示,他怀疑英国“将经历一次大衰退,可能比其他欧洲国家更严重”。

Last month Pepco, which owns Poundland, said in its results that in the UK customers were scaling back even on essential purchases. Whereas elsewhere in Europe, where wage rises were making up for price rises, this was not the case. Some measures of household consumer confidence are hitting record lows in the UK.

上个月,Poundland的母公司Pepco在其业绩报告中表示,英国消费者甚至在缩减必需品的购买。而在欧洲其他地方,工资上涨抵消了物价上涨,所以情况并非如此。英国的一些家庭消费者信心指标正创下历史新低。
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What is driving this? On inflation Mr Bailey pointed to the structure of the price cap affecting the timing of the peaks. But that would affect more the timing of the peak rather than its height.

这背后的原因是什么?在通胀问题上,贝利指出,价格上限的结构会影响通胀达到峰值的时间。但这将更大程度上影响峰值的时间,而不是峰值的高度。

Sterling has fallen markedly against the dollar over the past year, adding to inflationary pressure for imported fuel and energy. Although the figures are volatile, the key measure of UK trade performance, the current account, reached its worst levels in record in the first quarter.

过去一年,英镑兑美元汇率大幅下跌,加大了进口燃料和能源的通胀压力。尽管这些数据波动较大,但衡量英国贸易表现的关键指标——经常账——今年第一季度达到了有记录以来的最糟糕水平。

As the Bank pointed out in its minutes for its June meeting when it raised interest rates, measures of core goods inflation (stripping out volatile measures such as energy and food) in the UK are higher than the US, and markedly higher than the eurozone.

正如英国央行在6月加息会议纪要中指出的那样,英国的核心商品通胀指标(剔除能源和食品等波动性指标)高于美国,而且明显高于欧元区。

Brexit factor at play

脱欧因素起作用

The obvious question posed to Mr Bailey was about a Brexit factor here. Economists predicted that Brexit would make the trade off between inflation and growth more difficult, both because of trade barriers and labour shortages.

贝利面临的一个明显问题是关于英国脱欧的一个因素。经济学家预测,由于贸易壁垒和劳动力短缺,英国脱欧将使通胀和增长之间的权衡变得更加困难。

If forecasts of UK underperformance turn out to be true, then this would be consistent with a Brexit factor at play, making inflation more stubborn than elsewhere, and perhaps requiring interest rates to be hiked higher.

如果有关英国经济表现不佳的预测是真的,那么这将与英国脱欧的一个因素相符,这将使通胀比其他地方更加顽固,或许还需要将利率调高。

A smaller pool of workers should mean the UK labour market is now less flexible. The British Chambers of Commerce yesterday implored the government to review urgently its shortage occupation list, as hotels and restaurants turned away clients amid staff shortages.

劳动力数量减少应该意味着英国劳动力市场的灵活性下降。英国商会昨天恳请政府紧急审查其短缺职业名单——目前酒店和餐厅因员工短缺而拒绝接待客户。

Post-pandemic challenges

后疫情时期的挑战
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Another mechanism identified by policymakers is that within the UK firms see less competition from Europe, and are increasing margins and therefore prices. On the actual numbers so far, as the governor said, it is difficult to be definitive. The post-pandemic supply chain challenges are difficult to disentangle from post Brexit ones, he said.

政策制定者确定的另一个机制是,英国企业内部认为来自欧洲的竞争减少了,因此利润率和价格都在上升。正如这位行长所说,到目前为止,很难给出确切的数字。他说,大流行后的供应链挑战很难与英国脱欧后的挑战分开。

Also it is far from certain that these forecasts will come to pass. The German economy is very sensitive to any shortage of energy amid tensions with Russia. The Eurozone itself is under internal pressure again, with risks of a re-emergence of the dormant crisis of a decade ago.

此外,这些预测能否实现还远未确定。在与俄罗斯的紧张关系中,德国经济对任何能源短缺都非常敏感。欧元区自身也再次面临内部压力,十年前蛰伏的危机有卷土重来的风险。

So far, a common energy shock, explains most of the inflation we have seen. The structure of the energy price cap may explain why we have spiked now, later than the rest of Europe. But if over the coming year these inflation numbers stay higher for longer here in the UK than the rest of advanced European and world economies, the shadow of post-Brexit policy changes only really affecting this country will loom large.

到目前为止,一种常见的能源冲击可以解释我们所看到的大多数通货膨胀。能源价格上限的结构或许可以解释为什么我们现在的价格飙升比欧洲其他国家更晚。但如果未来一年,英国的通胀数据比其他欧洲和世界发达经济体保持更高水平的时间更长,那么只会真正影响到这一个国家的脱欧后政策变化的阴影将加深扩大。

评论翻译
Duanedoberman
Why is the UK economy suffering more than other countries?
Because we have an extremist government in power driven by an extremist dogma perhaps?

“为什么英国经济比其他国家遭受的损失更大?”
是因为我们有一个被极端主义教条驱使的极端主义政府吗?

johimselfLondon
And an extremist press, pushing the rhetoric and splitting the people along artificial divisions.

还有一个极端主义的媒体,推动花言巧语,人为地分裂人民。

Chalky_Pockets
I don't see the divisions being all that artificial. Sure, the press are extremist and are bringing those divisions to the forefront and making them unavoidable, but things like nationalism are divisive and should be because that shit is not acceptable.

我不认为这些分裂都是人为的。当然,媒体是极端主义者,它们把这些分裂推向前台,让它们不可避免,但像民族主义这样的事情是(自发)分裂的,而且应该是分裂的,因为那是不可接受的。

fellacious
I think you're right, that's how they operate. They look for natural differences of opinion in the population, then exploit those by creating narratives in the press to exacerbate those differences and keep people fighting each other instead of uniting against them. (The "they" here is the mega-rich behind the tory party, but it also applies to every place where the rich are organising to stay in power: Russia, the US, Hungary and Turkey are good examples too)

我想你是对的,他们就是这么运作的。他们在人群中寻找意见的自然差异,然后利用这些差异,通过在媒体上制造叙事来加剧这些差异,让人们互相争斗,而不是联合起来反对他们。(这里的“他们”指的是保守党背后的超级富豪,但这也适用于富人组织起来继续掌权的所有国家:俄罗斯、美国、匈牙利和土耳其也是很好的例子。)

Richeh
Divide and conquer / rule.
It's a really, really old trick and it's only working better these days because new media brought the ability to deliver sextive news to sextive people. Learning algorithms sculpt and craft your morning news to your own confirmation biases and helps us all never question our opinions / the ones we've been given.TBH it's a miracle lockdown didn't start a fucking civil war.

这就是“分而治之/统治”。
这是一个非常非常老的技巧,而且它在当代也运作得更好,因为新媒体带来了向有选择的人提供有选择的新闻的能力。学习算法可以根据你自己的确认偏见来塑造和制作你的早间新闻,并帮助我们永远不会质疑我们的观点/我们得到的意见。说实话抗疫封锁没有引发一场内战已经是奇迹了。

majorddfGloucestershire
Only thing unique to us is leaving the EU. If only it could have been predicted.

我们唯一独特之处就是离开了欧盟。要是当初能预测到就好了。

[–]Illustratir692 137
Please, you have imperial measurements.
What else did you want .

拜托,你现在能用英制尺寸了。
你还想要什么?
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Psychisand
Brexit doesn't have 0 impact, but it's certainly not the only thing unique about the UK. Compared to other G7 countries, UK labour productivity has barely recovered since 2008, and economists can't find a consensus on why. There were uniquely unfortunate things about the UK we couldn't explain before Brexit and COVID

英国脱欧不是没有影响,但这肯定不是英国唯一的独特之处。与其他七国集团国家相比,英国的劳动生产率自2008年以来几乎没有恢复过,经济学家们无法就原因达成共识。在英国脱欧和新冠肺炎之前,英国就已经有一些我们无法解释的特别不幸的事情了

MentalOcelot7882
Maybe it's because you don't have easy access to the EU labor pool, combined with post-Boomer declines in birth rates? I mean, you guys (Yank here) utilize cheap labor from the EU much like we do with our Mexican neighbors to the south. The idiots here like to claim that they are simultaneously lazy people sucking up welfare (which they can't, legal or illegal), AND they're "taking our jobs" (one of the most laughable claims, considering the number of industries that rely on migrant labor, like meat processing, produce harvesting, and hospitality and restaurant industries, that don't attract many citizens). Our agricultural industries rely heavily on cheap migrant labor to keep prices low here; I see that the UK is unable to harvest their produce because that they can't find laborers for the harvest, jobs that used to be filled by citizens from the newer member nations from Eastern Europe.
Also, like us, is you make it impossible for young households to afford housing, service impossible amounts of student debt, and to have a hope for retirement. If we can't afford having stable housing, or even saving for retirement, why would we have children?
I recognize that there are some differences (post-colonialist UK is not as influential as it was 100 years ago, and that affects trade; America is about to discover this soon as we face our imminent decline), but we also have similar circumstances that color the challenges we face.

也许是因为你不容易进入欧盟劳动力市场,加上婴儿潮后出生率下降?我的意思是,你们这些家伙(这个贴子的美国佬)利用来自欧盟的廉价劳动力,就像我们利用我们南部的墨西哥邻居一样。这里的白痴们喜欢声称,他们是懒人,吮吸福利(其实他们吸不到,无论合法还是非法的),同时他们在“抢走我们的工作”(这是最可笑的说法之一,考虑到依赖移民劳动力的行业的数量,比如肉类加工、农产品收获、酒店和餐饮业,这些行业并没有吸引很多本地公民)。我们的农业严重依赖廉价的外来劳动力来保持低廉的价格;我看到英国无法采摘他们的农产品,因为他们找不到采摘工人,而这些工作过去是由来自东欧新成员国的公民担任的。
还有,就像我们一样,你们让年轻的家庭无法负担住房,无法偿还巨额的学生贷款,无法对退休抱有希望。如果我们买不起稳定的住房,甚至不能为退休存钱,那我们干吗还要生孩子?
我承认存在一些差异(后殖民主义英国的影响力不如100年前了,这影响了贸易;当我们面临即将到来的衰落时,美国很快也会发现这一点),但我们也有类似的情况,来填充我们面临的挑战。

nklvhManchester
UK labour productivity has barely recovered since 2008
uniquely unfortunate things about the UK
Austerity. Most economists agree that to get out of recession you must spend; this is demonstrated in the US by both the 'New Deal' and Obama's handling of the '08 market crash.
"But what about debt" - debt is meaningless now, Social Democratic Capitalism failed collapsed when the '08 crisis resulted in the Banks being bailed out, not the people affected. Austerity measures significantly harmed our economic growth, and due to the exponential nature, will take decades of public spending to rectify - not least, national debt has continued to grow, if not at an even faster rate, despite Austerity.
Another angle to look at this is Post-WWII investment and expenditure - much of Europe was economically devastated by the war and took on huge debt from the mostly unaffected US. Countries like (West) Germany, and to a lesser extent France, and the Nederlands, heavily invested, and continued to reinvest as growth ramped up. The UK instead focused on repaying, limiting economic output and growth in the long term.

“英国的劳动生产率自2008年以来几乎没有恢复过”
“英国就已经有一些我们无法解释的特别不幸的事情”
因为紧缩。大多数经济学家都认为,要走出衰退,你必须花钱;这一点在美国的“新政”和奥巴马对08年市场崩盘的处理中都得到了证明。
“但是债务呢?”——债务现在已经没有意义了,社会民主资本主义失败了,在08年的危机中,银行得到了救助,而不是受影响的人民。紧缩措施严重损害了我们的经济增长,由于指数级的性质,将需要几十年的公共支出来纠正——尤其是,尽管有紧缩措施,但国家债务仍在继续增长(如果不是更快增长的话)。
看这个问题的另一个角度是二战后的投资和支出——当时大部分欧洲国家在经济上被战争摧毁,并从基本上未受战争影响的美国那里背负了巨额债务。像(民主)德国、法国和荷兰(程度稍低)这样的国家大举投资,并随着经济增长继续再投资。相反,英国专注于偿还债务,从长期来看这限制了经济产出和增长。

Skulldo
Hey now let's not be too harsh on leaving the EU here. There's also the piss poor deal we negotiated with the EU, the corruption, the bad economic decisions and let's not forget a government to focused on fighting scandals to be able to focus on their job.

嘿,现在让我们不要对脱欧太苛责。还有我们与欧盟谈判达成的糟糕协议,腐败,糟糕的经济决策,让我们不要忘记一个专注于打击丑闻的政府是能够专注于他们的本职工作的。
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passingconcierge
Hey now let's not be too harsh on leaving the EU here.
We should be extra harsh. We knew we were leaving. We allowed bigots, extremists, and incompetents negotiate to negotiate a deal that would benefit them. They were given the responsibility of getting a better deal outside the EU than inside the EU. They promised such a deal. They did not deliver. This is not a trivial point. It is part of a pattern of behaviour. They promise "A World Class X" and we get a Poundland remainder bin version. It is not just leaving the EU. It is everything. The EU is the front loading of their decades of destruction.
They gave us a piss poor deal with the EU. They gave us a piss poor deal. They gave a piss poor deal for the NHS. They gave a piss poor deal to the Disabled. They gave a piss poor deal to Grenfell Victims. They gave a piss poor deal to everything they touched: economy, society, democracy.
So, much as though it might be nice - and personally I think it would be outstanding - to ignore the piss poor deal with the EU, it is a part of the pattern of delivering piss poor deals. So in a "world economic crisis" we are going to get the most piss poor deal possible. Because that is what the promise is.
What people need to say is something simple: fuck the mouth breathers, they had their chance and all they delivered was a piss poor deal. Time to move on and do the rational things that do not include scandals, economic incompetence, cronyism, and creating mouthbreathing demographics to pander to.

“嘿,现在让我们不要对脱欧太苛责”
我们应该格外苛责。我们当时明知道我们要脱欧了。我们却允许偏执狂、极端分子和无能的人谈判达成一项对他们有利的协议。他们被赋予了在欧盟外比在欧盟内达成更好协议的责任。他们承诺会达成这样的协议。但他们没有兑现。这不是一个微不足道的问题。这是一种行为模式的一部分。他们承诺“一项世界级的X”,但我们得到的却是只剩一磅的缩水版本。不仅仅是脱欧。一切都是这样。欧盟只是他们几十年破坏的前沿阵地。
他们和欧盟达成了一项糟糕的协议。他们给了我们一个非常糟糕的协议。他们给了国家医疗体系一个糟糕的协议。他们给了残疾人一个非常糟糕的协议。他们给了Grenfell塔火灾受害者一项糟糕的协议。他们对他们接触到的一切都不屑一顾:经济、社会、民主。
因此,尽管忽略与欧盟的糟糕协议可能是好事——我个人认为这将是杰出的——但这是达成糟糕协议模式的一部分。因此,在“世界经济危机”中,我们将得到最糟糕的协议。因为这就是承诺。
人们需要说的很简单:qtmd这些无脑SB们,他们有机会,但他们所做的只是达成了一项糟糕的协议。是时候继续前进,做一些不包括丑闻、经济无能、任人唯亲和创造需要迎合的SB人口结构的理性的事情了。

Ginge04
We have a government who over the last 12 years has simply failed to grow the economy in any meaningful way. Wages have been consistently below inflation for the last 12 years, while low interest rates has meant house prices have continued to rise. Now that interest rates and inflation have gone up, suddenly everyone that was just about managing is now spiraling into debt, while those that did have the disposable income to go out and enjoy themselves now don’t.
It’s a fundamental misunderstanding on government level of how economics work over 12 years that has led to this. You can’t cut your way to economic growth, it simply does not happen.

我们的政府在过去12年里没能以任何有意义的方式促进经济增长。过去12年里,工资水平一直低于通货膨胀率,而低利率意味着房价持续上涨。现在,利率和通货膨胀都在上升,突然之间,每个人都在努力应对债务,而那些原先有可支配收入的人现在没有了。
这是12年来政府层面对经济运行方式的根本误解所导致的。你不能切断经济增长的道路,切断了就根本不会增长。

jhharvest
It's because people in this country still believe in the class system.
You've got people who identify as working class. They either think they're the ones keeping the country running (and it's more or less true), or they think they shouldn't bother because everyone else looks down on them.
People who think they're middle class get the student loans and the mortgage and they grind their lives away in decent income jobs, thinking they're at least better than the working class skivers.
Then you've got the people who've got money and who build up their social networks starting from public school, and they end up taking a lot of the positions of power. And they're doing just fine so they have no reason to change the status quo. If there's a downturn in economy they just end up profiting from it because it means they can skim more of public investment money.
That's why the UK economy is struggling.

这是因为这个国家的人们仍然相信阶级制度。
有些人认为自己是工人阶级。他们要么认为他们是维持国家运转的人(这或多或少是真的),要么认为他们不应该麻烦,因为其他人都看不起他们。
那些自认为是中产阶级的人获得了学生贷款和抵押贷款,他们辛苦地生活在体面的收入工作之上,认为他们至少比工人阶级的逃税者强。
还有那些有钱的人,他们从公立学校开始建立起自己的社交网络,最终占据了很多有权力的位置。他们做得很好,所以他们没有理由改变现状。如果经济衰退,他们最终会从中获利,因为这意味着他们可以从公共投资中捞取更多的钱。
这就是英国经济陷入困境的原因。

iate12muffins
We all know why. You take a tiny country with little purchasing or bargaining power out of a large bloc with lots of power,and you don't have as much clout at the table.
You then have to make up for deficiencies in the new system: how,now you're on your own,do you get stuff in and out of the country? With extra taxes and delays because of now necessary customs checks,will foreign customers continue to buy from you,or find similar options closer to home,and your imported goods will be slower and more expensive for the same reasons,except as a little island,there's less options to turn to.
You also have all the cheap foreign workers who made things run smoothly at low cost either returned to sender,or made to feel so unwelcome that they've gone home or refuse to come to work.
Combined with an incompetent government that is concerned only with remaining in power and lining the pockets of themselves and their friends,then you have a perfect storm,and we're in a tiny built ill equipped to weather it.

我们都知道为什么。你把一个没有多少购买力或议价能力的小国从一个有很多权力的大集团中分出来,然后你在谈判桌上就没有那么大的影响力了。
然后你必须弥补新体系中的不足:现在你要靠你自己了,你怎么把东西运进运出这个国家?由于现在必须的海关检查,加上额外的税收和延误,外国客户会继续从你这里购买,还是在离家更近的地方找到类似的选择呢?而你的进口商品会因为同样的原因更慢更贵,而你作为一个小岛,可供转向的选择很少。
还有那些以低成本让事情顺利运转的廉价的外国工人,要么被退回本国,要么让他们感到不受欢迎,因此都回家了或拒绝来这里工作。
再加上一个无能的政府,只关心保住自己的权力,为他们自己和他们的朋友中饱私囊,于是你就有了一场完美的风暴,而我们是在一个小而简陋的设施中,扛不住它。

BobbyCostner
Because despite leaving the EU we have followed their lead on sanctioning Russia. We are in the worst place geographically to do this. We are still sanctioning Iran aswell which could have eased the pressure with the oil situation.
I didn't want us to leave the EU but if that's the route we've taken we need to start thinking for ourselves rather than doing what EU and US tell us to.

因为尽管我们离开了欧盟,我们还是跟随他们制裁俄罗斯。从地理位置上来说,我们处在最不适合做这件事的地方。我们还在制裁伊朗,而伊朗本来可以用来缓解石油局势的压力。
我不想让我们离开欧盟,但如果我们已经走了这条路,我们就需要开始自己思考,而不是按照欧盟和美国的吩咐去做。

VVIERV
Because we've had over a decade of torys who don't know how economy works outside if bleeding it dry.
Every buissness owner and economist knows you invest through a down turn, because you need to stimulate growth or you stagnate and die and we haven't had any investment in over 10 years
The UK is a consumer based economy we grow by consuming goods, that means money has to be in the peoples hands to spend to grow profits increase jobs and continue growth, conservative economics that prioritises saving and conservative social policy that takes money and benefits away from the poor and enfranchises the rich without tax and increased amounts they can take from a company starves the very economy like a cancer.

因为我们有十多年的保守党执政,他们不知道外面的经济是如何运作的,如果把它榨干了会怎样。
每个企业主和经济学家都知道,要在经济低迷时期进行投资,因为你需要刺激增长,否则你就会陷入停滞和死亡,而我们已经10多年没有进行任何投资了
英国是一个以消费为基础的经济体,我们通过消费商品来实现增长,这意味着钱必须在人民手中,用于增加利润,增加就业机会和持续增长,但保守的经济学把储蓄放在首位,保守的社会政策从穷人那里拿走钱和福利,给富人以免税的权利,以便他们可以从一家公司那里拿走更多的钱,这把经济饿得像癌症一样。

OldManBernsLancashire
Because we are run by corrupt imbeciles who would rather give their pals millions of pounds than invest it in the infrastructure of the country.

因为我们是由一群腐败的笨蛋管理的,他们宁愿给他们的朋友数百万英镑,也不愿投资于国家的基础设施。

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