公众支持率的崩溃表明,英国脱欧根本没有完成
2022-07-14 jiangye111 10772
正文翻译
Collapsing public support suggests Brexit is anything but done
-Most people think Brexit has gone badly, a UK survey finds, and Johnson has left behind a mess of problems for a new PM

公众支持率的崩溃表明,英国脱欧根本没有完成
——英国一项调查发现,大多数人认为英国脱欧发展得很糟糕,约翰逊给新首相留下了一堆烂摊子
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(Boris Johnson’s critics say his deal with the EU did not achieve the ‘stability and certainty’ he claimed it would.)

(鲍里斯·约翰逊的批评者称,他与欧盟的协议并没有实现他所宣称的“稳定和确定性”。)
新闻:

The mantra right up to the grisly end was that he had got Brexit “done”.

直到可怕的结尾,他的口头禅都是:他已经“完成”了英国脱欧。

Boris Johnson’s apparent double miracle was to break the parliamentary impasse that tormented his predecessor Theresa May when trying to pass her withdrawal agreement and then to successfully negotiate a trade deal with the EU in the following 10 months.

鲍里斯·约翰逊明显的“双重奇迹”,是打破了困扰他的前任特蕾莎·梅的议会僵局,当时特蕾莎·梅先是试图通过她的脱欧协议,然后在接下来的10个月里成功地与欧盟谈判达成一项贸易协议。

“This deal means a new stability and a new certainty in what has sometimes been a fractious and difficult relationship,” Johnson had said on Christmas Eve 2020 as the ink was drying on the new trade agreement.

2020年圣诞前夕,约翰逊在新贸易协定墨迹渐干之际表示:“该协议意味着在有时难以处理的关系中的一种新的稳定性和新的确定性。”

Johnson certainly achieved a political feat in uniting his party after removing May from office and then forming an unlikely electoral alliance in the wider country – despite misleading the Queen, in the opinion of a Scottish court, as he sought to threaten recalcitrant MPs with a no-deal exit back in the dark days of 2019.

以及在将梅赶下首相宝座之后,约翰逊在更大范围内组建了一个不太可能实现的选举联盟,这无疑是一项政治壮举——尽管在苏格兰法院看来,他误导了女王,因为在2019年黑暗的日子里,他曾试图用无协议脱欧来威胁顽固的议员。

But recent polling suggests support for Brexit in the UK has collapsed – and the outgoing prime minister’s critics might confidently argue today that Johnson leaves a mess of issues behind rather than the “certainty and stability” that he claimed to have secured 18 months ago.

但最近的民调显示,英国民众对脱欧的支持已经崩溃——这位即将离任的首相的批评者今天可能会自信地说,约翰逊留下了一大堆问题,而不是他18个月前宣称的“确定性和稳定性”。

For all of the talk in 2019 of having struck a great deal, the government has in recent weeks threatened to unilaterally rip up a hard won and crucial agreement over the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland if the EU does not agree to a fundamental overhaul – despite the Conservative manifesto on which Johnson formed his government committing to no renegotiations.

尽管2019年各方都在谈论已经达成了一项伟大的协议,但政府最近几周威胁称,如果欧盟不同意进行根本改革,就会单方面撕毁来之不易的、至关重要的脱欧后北爱尔兰安排协议——尽管约翰逊组建政府时的保守党宣言承诺不会重新谈判。

The problem Johnson has found is that the withdrawal agreement has – as the government’s own impact assessment had said it would at the time, along with everyone else who understood the deal – drawn a regulatory border down the Irish Sea, making it more expensive to import from Britain to Northern Ireland.

约翰逊发现的问题是,脱欧协议——正如政府自己的影响评估,以及所有理解该协议的人当时所说的那样——划定了爱尔兰海的监管边界,使从英国进口到北爱尔兰的成本更高了。

May, after all, had rejected the approach taken by Johnson largely on constitutional grounds, saying to the House of Commons that no British prime minister could consider drawing borders between the four nations of the UK. The Democratic unxist party agreed then with that position, as it does today. It is why it is refusing to allow power-sharing institutions to function in Northern Ireland.

毕竟,梅当时在很大程度上是以宪法为由拒绝了约翰逊的做法,她对下议院表示,没有哪个英国首相会考虑在英国的四个国家之间划定边界。民主统一党当时同意这一立场,今天也是如此。这就是为什么它拒绝让权力分享机构在北爱尔兰运作的原因。
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Meanwhile, the trade deal has left Britain’s fishing communities screaming betrayal, unhappy with their paltry gains and facing expensive barriers to export what they have caught. The arrangements are simultaneously a cause of constant friction with the French government, at a time when cooperation on security between the two big beasts of European defence arguably could not be more important.

与此同时,该贸易协议让英国的渔业社区尖叫着“遭到了背叛”,他们对微薄的收益并面临着昂贵的渔获出口壁垒感到不满。在英法这两个欧洲防务巨擘之间的安全合作可以说是再重要不过的当下,这些安排也是与法国政府不断发生摩擦的原因。

There has been a “steep decline” in the number of trading relationships Britain has with the EU as small businesses have become bogged down in the new red tape, according to a study by the London School of Economics. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the government spending watchdog, said earlier this year that Brexit “may have been a factor” in the UK lagging behind all other G7 economies in its post-pandemic recovery.

伦敦经济学院的一项研究显示,英国与欧盟的贸易关系数量“急剧下降”,因为小企业陷入了新的繁琐程序。英国预算责任办公室(政府支出监管机构)今年早些时候表示,英国脱欧“可能是”英国在大流行后复苏方面落后于其他七国集团经济体的一个因素。

But most worrying of all for those who are protective of Johnson’s Brexit legacy is the changing face of public opinion. The latest YouGov poll has found that every region of the UK now believes Brexit was an error, with 55% of those questioned believing that Brexit has gone badly compared with 33% who say it has gone well.

但对于那些捍卫约翰逊脱欧遗产的人来说,最令人担忧的是公众舆论的变化。最新的舆观民意调查发现,现在英国的每个地区都认为脱欧是一个错误,55%的受访者认为脱欧很糟糕,33%的人认为脱欧很好。

Few in Westminster, beyond the Liberal Democrats, are suggesting that the UK is poised to rejoin the EU. But the very manner in which Brexit was “done” appears to have left it brittle, the polls suggest. Britain’s relationship with the 27 EU member states remains a stubbornly open question. For those who believe that Britain’s destiny remains as free-wheeling country outside the EU’s single market and customs unx, there can be little confidence that anything on that front has been settled.

除了自由民主党,英国议会中几乎没有人暗示英国准备重新加入欧盟。但民调显示,英国脱欧的“完成”方式似乎让它变得脆弱了。英国与27个欧盟成员国的关系仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。对于那些认为英国的命运仍将是欧盟单一市场和关税同盟之外的自由国家的人来说,几乎没有信心认为这方面的任何问题已经得到解决。
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The payoff for this autonomy from the EU’s rules and regulations was to be a welter of trade deals around the world that offered greater access for British goods in emerging markets, along with a bonfire of regulations in the City of London that would make it more competitive.

这种不受欧盟规章制度约束的回报是,世界各地的贸易协定纷繁复杂,为英国商品进入新兴市场提供了更大的渠道,同时伦敦金融城出台了大量规章制度,使其更具竞争力。

But such has been the lack of progress on such aims that Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Commons leader, felt forced during Johnson’s prolonged fight to stay in Downing Street to warn Tory MPs thinking of voting no confidence that Brexit might yet be thwarted. Perhaps more significantly, the lack of a Brexit dividend since 23 June 2016 has led others sympathetic to Brexit to reconsider whether the deals struck really are optimal. Tory MEP Dan Hannan mused recently that retaining membership of the single market may have been a better option.

但由于在这些目标上缺乏进展,在约翰逊长期争取留在唐宁街的过程中,前下议院领袖雅各布·里斯-莫格感到被迫警告那些考虑投不信任票的保守党议员,英国脱欧可能会遭到挫败。或许更重要的是,自2016年6月23日以来,英国脱欧没有带来红利,这导致其他支持英国脱欧的人重新考虑达成的协议是否真的是最优的。保守党欧洲议会议员丹·汉南最近深思熟虑地表示,保留单一市场成员国身份可能是一个更好的选择。

Those who worked alongside Johnson in government, and in opposition to him at the negotiating table, point to the cause of this mess of issues being not only the substance of what was negotiated but that it was done with a misplaced boosterism.

那些曾在政府中与约翰逊共事,并在谈判桌上反对他的人指出,造成这一混乱局面的原因不仅在于谈判的实质内容,而且在于谈判过程中出现了错误的支持主义。

Georg Riekeles, diplomatic adviser to the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, during the withdrawal agreement and trade negotiations, said Johnson never appeared on top of the details but his decision to disavow the arrangements for Northern Ireland so soon after signing the agreement them astonished even the hardest-nosed officials in Brussels.

在脱欧协议和贸易谈判期间,欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶的外交顾问格奥尔格·里克尔斯表示,约翰逊从来没有了解过细节,但他在签署协议后这么快就决定否认对北爱尔兰的安排,就连布鲁塞尔最强硬的官员也感到震惊。

“He certainly pushed the boundaries of what one could expect a British prime minister to do very, very far,” Riekeles said. “He negotiated, signed an international agreement and had the House of Commons ratify it one day, only to walk back on it the next.”

里克尔斯说:“他确实把人们对英国首相的期望推到了非常、非常低的程度。他进行谈判,签署了一项国际协议,并让下议院批准了它,但第二天他又背弃了它。”

Riekeles added: “If the obxtive was to satisfy an important part of the Conservative party and to tick boxes in terms of Brexit rhetoric, then of course they got that. But not if the aim was to have the best possible relations with the EU and properly get Brexit done – get it done and start a constructive relationship where one works together in a neighbourly way, to address common and global problems. Instead, relations are very complicated, and the cost of that is bigger for the UK than the EU.”

里克尔斯补充说:“如果他们的目标是满足保守党的一个重要组成部分,并在脱欧的言论上打上标记,那么他们当然做到了。但如果目标是与欧盟保持最好的关系,妥善解决英国脱欧问题,那就不是这样了——解决好这件事,开启建设性的关系,以睦邻方式合作,解决共同的全球性问题。相反,双方关系非常复杂,并且英国为此付出的代价比欧盟更大。”

In his book, Chief of Staff: Notes from Downing Street, the former Tory MP Gavin Barwell, who led May’s office during her tortuous parallel negotiations with the EU and the mutinous cabinet, noted that Johnson was the least willing to compromise of all the Brexiters and refused to acknowledge the difficult choices that had to be made over Northern Ireland’s special circumstances, describing the problem as the “tail wagging the dog”.

前保守党议员加文·巴韦尔在其《幕僚长:唐宁街的记录》一书中指出,在所有脱欧派中,约翰逊是最不愿意妥协的,并拒绝承认在北爱尔兰的特殊情况下必须做出的艰难选择,他将这个问题描述为“主次颠倒”。巴韦尔曾在梅与欧盟和叛变内阁的艰难平行谈判中领导过她的办公室。

Barwell told the Guardian that Johnson had won over MPs for his solution to Northern Ireland due to “brazenness and the desperation of people in parliament to find a way out of the deadlock” but that he would be “surprised” if the type of relationship Johnson designed with the EU would last.

巴维尔告诉《卫报》,约翰逊已经赢得了议员们对他的北爱尔兰解决方案的支持,因为“议会中的人无耻而绝望地想要找到打破僵局的方法”,但如果约翰逊设计的与欧盟的这种关系能够持续下去,他会感到“惊讶”。

“From a Brexiter point of view, the thing that should worry them is that this deal has not settled the argument in this country about what sort of relationship with Europe we want,” Barwell said. “If you are a Brexiter, you should be trying do something that a sufficient proportion of the population accepted so that there was no question of reopening the question. I would be surprised if we rejoined in the medium term but I would be equally surprised if a future government didn’t negotiate a closer deal.”

巴维尔说:“从脱欧派的角度来看,他们应该担心的是,这项协议没有解决这个国家关于我们希望与欧洲建立什么样的关系的争论。如果你是脱欧派,你应该尝试做一些让足够多的人接受的事情,这样就不会有重新讨论这个问题的问题了。如果我们在中期重新加入欧盟,我会感到惊讶,但如果未来的政府没有通过谈判达成一项更紧密的协议,我会同样感到惊讶。”

Brexit, he suggested, is far from done.

他说,英国脱欧远未完成。

评论翻译
G_Morgan
Politicians are going to say "hard to do X because Brexit" for decades to come. It'll amusingly flip the "but Brussels" excuse on its head.
We're reaching the point where "but Brexit" will be a good enough excuse to wash away any failure. Not as if the other side can do better as they need to live with Brexit as well.

在未来的几十年里,政客们会说“因为英国脱欧,所以很难做某件事”。有意思的是,它会把“但是布鲁塞尔XXX”的借口抛到脑后。
我们正在接近这样一个时刻:“但是英国脱欧XXX”将成为洗掉任何失败的好借口。似乎另一方也不能做得更好,因为他们也需要与英国脱欧这个事实共存。
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TheSoupThief
Thinking is that now is too soon. Needs to be abundantly clear to a firm majority that life outside the EU is a bleaker one, while at the same time the EU needs to gain confidence that the UK is in the hands of grown-ups before they'd take any approach seriously. No mistake though, we won't get the membership deal we just pissed away

现在想这个问题还太早了。需要让绝大多数坚定的人清楚地认识到,脱离欧盟后的生活会更加惨淡,而与此同时,欧盟也需要在认真采取任何措施之前,获得英国在成年人手中的信心。毫无疑问,我们不会得到我们刚刚丢掉的成员国协议待遇的

JabInTheButt
I know it's very frustrating for those of us who, from day one, said this whole shit-show would be a fucking disaster. We want Labour to just say "fuck it the solution is going back in", win a majority and get it done.
But the reality is even with 55% of the country accepting it was a mistake, this would be a massive electoral risk.

我知道这对我们这些从一开始就说这一切会是一场灾难的人来说很沮丧。我们希望工党说“qtmd,解决方案会回归的”,然后赢得多数选票,并完成它。
但现实是,即使这个国家55%的人承认这是一个错误,这将是一个巨大的选举风险。

Current_Focus2668
A large chunk of the British public said they are tired of hearing about Brexit so sections of the press stopped talking about it despite issues around Brexit being unresolved and the impact being ongoing.

一大部分英国公众表示,他们已经厌倦了听到脱欧的消息了,所以部分媒体停止谈论脱欧,尽管脱欧问题尚未解决,影响仍在继续。

Don_Quixote81Mancunian
Yeah, it's a generational issue, sadly. We likely won't see overwhelming desire to rejoin the EU for a decade or more.
Labour need to be patient and not push the issue. If they get back in power, they can try to make the best of Brexit as it is, even diluting it where they can by agreeing deals with the EU.
I have much more faith in Labour being able to make the best of this deal than I do the Tories, who couldn't resist using the EU as a bogeyman whenever something was going wrong for them, and seemed to revel in antagonising EU officials.

可悲的是,这是一个世代的问题。在未来10年或更长时间内,我们可能不会看到重新加入欧盟的强烈愿望。
工党需要有耐心,不要推动这个问题。如果他们重新掌权,他们可以尝试充分利用英国脱欧的现状,甚至可以通过与欧盟达成协议来尽可能地稀释脱欧的影响。
我对工党比保守党更有信心,相信他们能在这项协议中发挥最大的作用。每当保守党遇到问题时,他们就会忍不住把欧盟当作一个魔鬼,而且似乎喜欢与欧盟官员作对。

Npr31
They can also blame their failure to do anything on the impact of Brexit. Whilst a recipe for getting away with anything, it may also raise awareness of public that it needs to be reversed.
I fear however, rather than blaming Brexit as a whole, they will blame the specific Brexit deal we have

他们也可以把自己的失败归咎于英国脱欧的影响。虽然这是一个逃脱任何责任的秘诀,但也可能会提高公众的意识——它需要被扭转。
然而,我担心,他们不会指责整个脱欧,而是会指责我们现有的具体脱欧协议

mr-strange
We need at least 60% to back rejoining before even thinking about it. Realistically, 70% or more, before it can actually happen.

在考虑重新加入之前,我们至少需要先获得60%的人支持。实际上,需要70%或更多的支持率,这才会真正发生。

arrezzo
Over the coming decades, Barring some miracle, the country is set for gradual, and irreversible, political and financial decline. Our weak position was, ironically, hidden by our EU membership. Now we've untethered we will become a second/third tier backwater on the edge of the largest single market on the planet. Already some parts of eastern Europe have seen significant gains in GDP putting them on a par, or above, some parts of the UK - which did have 8 out of 10 of the most deprived areas in the EU. There's no reason to not expect this to continue.

在接下来的几十年里,除非出现奇迹,否则这个国家注定会在政治和金融方面逐步、不可逆转地衰落。具有讽刺意味的是,我们的弱势地位之前被我们的欧盟成员国身份掩盖了。现在我们已经放飞自我了,我们将成为这个星球上最大的单一市场边缘的二三线死水。东欧的一些地区已经看到了GDP的显著增长,与英国的一些地区相当,甚至更高——东欧在欧盟最贫困的10个地区中占了8个。没有理由不指望这种情况继续下去。

Omnislash99999
Rejoining the EU isn't going to happen for at least 15-20 years but perhaps with enough evidence to how shit it is we could rejoin the single market in the time before that

重新加入欧盟至少在15-20年内不会发生,但也许有足够的证据表明,在那之前,我们可以重新加入单一市场

Public-Database-6771
Realistically rejoining the single market is pretty much the end game for the foreseeable future. Rejoining the EU is the eventual icing on the cake when the issue is so dead and buried and uncontentious that we might as well. But that bit might take decades. Luckily much of the worst economic damage can be undone just by Stage One, even if it obviously puts our country in a worse political position than full membership (just have to accept that).

实际上,在可预见的未来,重新加入单一市场几乎是终极目标。重新加入欧盟最终是锦上添花,因为这个问题已经被彻底搁置了,毫无争议,我们也应该这样做。但这可能需要几十年的时间。幸运的是,大部分最严重的经济损失都可以在第一阶段消除,即使它显然会让我们的国家处于比正式会员更糟糕的政治地位(你必须接受这一点)。
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voyagerdoge
The UK will not join the EU single market without joining the EU as a member state.

如果英国不以成员国身份加入欧盟,就不能加入欧盟单一市场。

Hexapodium
The major driver of "no SM membership without being a member state" is that it makes the SM participant a rule-taker, so no competent civil service would advocate for it as a permanent situation. However, plenty of states (Switzerland, Norway) have domestic political problems with full membership despite it being all upside for them at this stage as they are already full SM participants.
The UK could easily be a SM participant without membership, if that was required in order to reduce some of the losses from being Out entirely. And indeed the EU as a whole would love to have the UK as a market participant but a rule-taker, after four decades of the UK providing just enough benefit to justify the concessions we demanded. Our position Out at the moment means we are already a de-facto rules-taker, rather than our prior position as a rule-maker to a degree beyond our actual economic strength.
Brexit threw away our rule-maker status and nothing will restore it completely. SM participation is about economic pain; membership is about rulemaking.

“如果英国不以成员国身份加入欧盟,就不能加入欧盟单一市场”的主要原因是,它使单一市场参与者成为规则的接受者,所以没有一个称职的公务员会主张将其作为一种永久的情况。然而,很多国家(瑞士、挪威)都存在正式会员身份的国内政治问题,尽管在现阶段这对它们来说是有利的,因为它们已经是完全的单一市场参与者了。
英国可以很容易地成为单一市场的参与者,即使没有会员资格,如果这是为了减少完全退出的一些损失的话。事实上,作为一个整体,欧盟希望英国成为一个市场参与者,但同时也成为一个规则制定者,因为40年来,英国提供了足够多的利益,足以证明我们要求的让步是合理的。我们现在的立场意味着我们已经是一个事实上的规则接受者,而不是我们之前作为规则制定者的地位,这已经超出了我们的实际经济实力。
英国脱欧抛弃了我们的规则制定者地位,没有什么能完全恢复它。单一市场参与身份意味经济痛苦;成员资格则意味着制定规则。

NSFWaccess1998
it will never be "done". Even when 60% of people want to rejoin, the debates around what deal we should have will be tremendous. It would take years for our standing within Europe to recover from this mess, though I do think we would be welcomed back (and should).
The time isn't now though. Rejoining won't happen for at least a decade, probably two or three. We have to limit the harm done.

脱欧永远不会“完成”。即使60%的人想要重新加入欧盟,关于我们应该达成什么样的协议的辩论也将是巨大的。我们在欧洲的地位需要数年时间才能从这场混乱中恢复过来,尽管我确实认为我们会重新受到欢迎(而且应该受到)。
不过现在还不是时候。重新加入欧盟至少要十年,可能要二、三十年。所以我们必须限制造成的伤害。

Subtleiaint
We need the Brexit supporting Tory MPs to retire before re-join becomes a serious cause. The next generation of Tory MPs will recognise the mistake but these ones will fight tooth and nail because they can't admit they were wrong.

我们需要支持脱欧的保守党议员退休,否则重新加入欧盟就会变成一个严重的问题。下一代保守党议员将会认识到这个错误,但这些老人们将会竭尽全力地斗争,因为他们不能承认自己错了。

arnathorCur hoc interpretari vexas?
The said “Get Brexit Done”.
They didn’t say “Get Brexit Done Well”.”

他们说“完成了脱欧”。
他们并没有说“很好地完成了脱欧”。

Quigley61
I suspect this is because quite a lot of people think Brexit hasn't been done in the way they would want it to be done. The issue is though, no one seems to actually know what they wanted or what Brexit should actually deliver. When you do find someone who says they know what they wanted from Brexit, it tends to be either a hard Brexit which in effect is just the denunciation of anything with the word "Euro" in the title, or, they conveniently agree with the exact Brexit that has been "delivered".
The issue isn't that people think Brexit has went badly and that it was a mistake, its that the Brexit we have does not match the promised Brexit, or the idealised Brexit that they have in their heads. The problem is that the ideal can and will never be delivered, and these people will be forever chasing the fantasy.
The UK has been ignoring big issues for decades. We need to face up to these problems, realise that while Brexit was sold as this be all end all solution, it wasn't and can't be. The solutions to our issues around housing, cost of living crises, wage stagnation, dilapidated infrastructure, ballooning pension & healthcare costs, failure of the health service, and a shrinking workforce to name a few, will not be easy solutions, and they can't be sold to the public via a slogan.

我怀疑这是因为很多人认为脱欧没有按照他们希望的方式进行。但问题是,似乎没有人真正知道他们想要什么,也不知道脱欧应该带来什么。当你发现有人说他们知道自己想从英国脱欧中得到什么时,往往要么是硬脱欧,实际上就是对任何标题中有“欧”的东西的指责,要么就是他们很变通地赞同已经“实现”的当前的脱欧。
问题不在于人们认为英国脱欧很糟糕,这是一个错误,而是我们现在的脱欧不符合他们承诺的脱欧,或者他们头脑中理想化的脱欧。问题是,这个理想不能也永远不会实现,而这些人将永远在追逐幻想。
几十年来,英国一直忽视重大问题。我们需要面对这些问题,要意识到,尽管英国脱欧被兜售为全面解决方案,但它不是,也不可能是。解决我们的住房问题、生活成本危机、工资停滞、破旧的基础设施、不断膨胀的养老金和医疗成本、医疗服务的失败和劳动力的萎缩等问题没有简单的解决方案,它们不能通过一个向公众兜售的口号而获得。

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