报告称，日本电动汽车发展停滞可能会损失14%的GDP和数百万个工作岗位
正文翻译
Japan, the world’s second-largest car exporter, risks a 14% drop in GDP if it does not move more swiftly toward producing electric vehicles, according to a new report by the Climate Group.
气候组织的一份新报告显示：作为世界第二大汽车出口国，如果日本不加快生产电动汽车的步伐，其国内生产总值可能会下降14%。
Japan, the world’s second-largest car exporter, risks a 14% drop in GDP if it does not move more swiftly toward producing electric vehicles, according to a new report by the Climate Group.
气候组织的一份新报告显示：作为世界第二大汽车出口国，如果日本不加快生产电动汽车的步伐，其国内生产总值可能会下降14%。
The Climate Group is a non-profit founded in 2003 with the intent to inspire global climate action. The group commissioned two early leaders in the Japanese EV industry to help with this report – Kenichiro Wada, who headed Mitubishi’s i-MiEV project and founded the Japan Electrification Institute, and Professor Masato Inoue, design director of the original Nissan Leaf and professor at the Institute of Design in Turin.
气候组织是一家非营利组织，成立于2003年，致力于激励全球气候行动。该组织委托日本电动汽车行业的两位早期领导者来帮助撰写了这份报告——和田健一郎，曾经领导了三菱的i-MiEV项目，并创立了日本电气化研究所；井上正人教授，日产聆风原作的设计总监，也是都灵设计研究所的教授。
气候组织是一家非营利组织，成立于2003年，致力于激励全球气候行动。该组织委托日本电动汽车行业的两位早期领导者来帮助撰写了这份报告——和田健一郎，曾经领导了三菱的i-MiEV项目，并创立了日本电气化研究所；井上正人教授，日产聆风原作的设计总监，也是都灵设计研究所的教授。
The report shows the status of auto sales in various regions, with Japan lagging behind major markets in Europe, China, and the United States in terms of domestic EV sales. Japan’s domestic hybrid (HEV) sales are going relatively strong, but the country sells very few battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles.
报告显示了各个地区的汽车销售状况，在国内电动汽车销售方面，日本落后于欧洲、中国和美国等主要市场。日本国内的混合动力汽车销售相对强劲，但纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的销量非常少。
报告显示了各个地区的汽车销售状况，在国内电动汽车销售方面，日本落后于欧洲、中国和美国等主要市场。日本国内的混合动力汽车销售相对强劲，但纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的销量非常少。
Looking forward, the report notes that many major car markets are planning to reduce or eliminate the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles some time in the 2030s. This will be necessary to meet international climate targets which Japan itself have committed to.
报告指出，预计未来许多主要汽车市场计划在本世纪30年代减少或取消内燃机汽车销售。这对于实现日本承诺的国际气候目标是必要的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
报告指出，预计未来许多主要汽车市场计划在本世纪30年代减少或取消内燃机汽车销售。这对于实现日本承诺的国际气候目标是必要的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
And if Japan doesn’t match these targets, the risk to Japanese industry, and thus the Japanese economy, is large. The report notes that Japan, already reliant on auto manufacturing for almost a fifth of its exports, could risk losing half of those automotive exports leading to the loss of 1.72 million jobs and $6 billion in automotive profits through 2040 and resulting in a 14% drop in GDP.
如果日本达不到这些目标，日本工业乃至日本经济面临的风险就会很大。报告指出，日本出口额的近五分之一都是汽车制造业，而到2040年日本的汽车出口可能会失去一半，这将导致172万个工作岗位减少和60亿美元的汽车利润减少，GDP下降14%。
如果日本达不到这些目标，日本工业乃至日本经济面临的风险就会很大。报告指出，日本出口额的近五分之一都是汽车制造业，而到2040年日本的汽车出口可能会失去一半，这将导致172万个工作岗位减少和60亿美元的汽车利润减少，GDP下降14%。
Japan lags behind others’ targets
日本落后于其他国家的目标
日本落后于其他国家的目标
Japan’s domestic EV targets lag behind other major players. The EU will likely ban new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035, the UK by 2030, and the United States and China want 50% of new car sales to have plugs by 2030 and 2035 respectively (though US voters want 100% EV by 2030). But Japan has only committed to “electrify” all new cars by the mid-2030s, which would include HEVs. This leaves the door open for up to 100% of its domestic sales to still be driven entirely by gasoline, with no ability to plug in to the grid for cleaner electricity.
日本国内的电动汽车目标落后于其他主要国家。，欧盟可能会在2035年禁止新内燃机汽车，英国可能会在2030年禁止，美国和中国分别希望到2030年和2035年50%的新车是插电式的(尽管美国选民希望到2030年实现100%电动汽车)。但日本只承诺到21世纪30年代中期实现所有新车“电气化”，其中包括混合动力汽车。这意味着，其国内销量仍有可能100%完全由汽油驱动，无法接入电网获得更清洁的电力。
日本国内的电动汽车目标落后于其他主要国家。，欧盟可能会在2035年禁止新内燃机汽车，英国可能会在2030年禁止，美国和中国分别希望到2030年和2035年50%的新车是插电式的(尽管美国选民希望到2030年实现100%电动汽车)。但日本只承诺到21世纪30年代中期实现所有新车“电气化”，其中包括混合动力汽车。这意味着，其国内销量仍有可能100%完全由汽油驱动，无法接入电网获得更清洁的电力。
Japan also refused to sign the COP26 2040 all-electric target (as did Germany and the United States, though some US states joined), which is a weak goal to begin with. As a result of Japan’s intransigence towards green energy and transportation, it received a “Fossil of the Day” award at last year’s climate conference.
日本也拒绝签署《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次会议宣言，会议要求2040年实现全电动目标(德国和美国也没有签署，不过美国一些州加入了)，这是个很小的目标。由于日本在绿色能源和交通方面的不妥协，它在去年的气候大会上获得了“每日化石奖”。
日本也拒绝签署《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次会议宣言，会议要求2040年实现全电动目标(德国和美国也没有签署，不过美国一些州加入了)，这是个很小的目标。由于日本在绿色能源和交通方面的不妥协，它在去年的气候大会上获得了“每日化石奖”。
And, while the country itself is signatory to the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, the captains of Japan’s automotive industry have shown significant resistance to these efforts. Akio Toyoda, CEO of Toyota, which is Japan’s largest company by far, often spreads EV misinformation, and the company pushes anti-EV propaganda both in advertisements and even in Japanese schools. The report notes that this misinformation is widespread in Japan, with popular perception being that HEVs are more efficient than BEVs, which is not correct.
尽管日本是《巴黎协定》和《格拉斯哥气候协定》的签署国，但日本汽车行业的巨头们对这些努力表现出了强烈的抵制。日本迄今为止最大的公司丰田汽车的首席执行官丰田章男经常传播电动汽车的错误信息，丰田汽车在广告中甚至在日本学校进行反电动汽车宣传。该报告指出，这种错误信息在日本普遍存在，人们普遍认为混合动力汽车比纯电动汽车更高效，而这是不正确的。
尽管日本是《巴黎协定》和《格拉斯哥气候协定》的签署国，但日本汽车行业的巨头们对这些努力表现出了强烈的抵制。日本迄今为止最大的公司丰田汽车的首席执行官丰田章男经常传播电动汽车的错误信息，丰田汽车在广告中甚至在日本学校进行反电动汽车宣传。该报告指出，这种错误信息在日本普遍存在，人们普遍认为混合动力汽车比纯电动汽车更高效，而这是不正确的。
Japan does have quite conservative business culture – so change comes slowly, particularly if that change is being suggested by outside sources. Honda, Japan’s second-largest company, has historically not been much better than Toyota in this respect, but the company does seem to be waking up and saying some of the right things under new CEO Toshihiro Mibe. The other Japanese manufacturers also have much lower ambitions for future EV production than their European and even American counterparts, with the possible exception of Nissan.
日本的商业文化确实相当保守，所以改变来得很慢，尤其是这种改变是由外部激发的情况下。作为日本第二大汽车公司，本田在这方面也没有比丰田好到哪儿去，但在新任首席执行官三部敏宏的领导下，该公司似乎正在觉醒，并发表了一些正确的言论。与欧洲甚至美国同行相比，其他日本制造商对未来电动汽车生产的雄心也要低得多，日产可能是个例外。
日本的商业文化确实相当保守，所以改变来得很慢，尤其是这种改变是由外部激发的情况下。作为日本第二大汽车公司，本田在这方面也没有比丰田好到哪儿去，但在新任首席执行官三部敏宏的领导下，该公司似乎正在觉醒，并发表了一些正确的言论。与欧洲甚至美国同行相比，其他日本制造商对未来电动汽车生产的雄心也要低得多，日产可能是个例外。
It is important to shift transportation over to electric vehicles, as gas-powered cars emit a lot of carbon. Even in Japan, which is a country with excellent and widely-used train systems for public transportation, transport is still the second-largest-emitting sector of the economy. If Japan expects to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050, an all-HEV scenario would result in only a ~30% reduction in automotive emissions, whereas an all-BEV scenario would exceed Japan’s 80% goal.
交通运输转向电动汽车很重要，因为汽油动力汽车排放大量的碳。即使在日本这样拥有优秀且广泛使用的公共交通火车的国家，交通运输仍然是第二大排放来源。如果日本的目标是2050年减少80%的排放量，采用全混合动力汽车的排放量只能减少约30%，而全纯电动汽车的排放量将超过日本80%的目标。
交通运输转向电动汽车很重要，因为汽油动力汽车排放大量的碳。即使在日本这样拥有优秀且广泛使用的公共交通火车的国家，交通运输仍然是第二大排放来源。如果日本的目标是2050年减少80%的排放量，采用全混合动力汽车的排放量只能减少约30%，而全纯电动汽车的排放量将超过日本80%的目标。
So, it is clear that Japan is lagging behind its international counterparts in this realm.
因此，日本在这方面明显落后于国际同行。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
因此，日本在这方面明显落后于国际同行。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
How will this affect Japan?
这将如何影响日本?
这将如何影响日本?
Japan faces dire economic consequences without action
如果不采取行动，日本将面临可怕的经济后果
如果不采取行动，日本将面临可怕的经济后果
The report suggests that Japan’s current path and longtime resistance to EVs will result in significant harm to its economy. About half of domestically-produced Japanese vehicles are exported (or 82%, if including vehicles produced overseas by Japanese companies), and Japanese companies supply 13% of the world’s passenger vehicles. That number could be slashed significantly if world markets lose their taste for Japanese gas guzzlers while everyone else transitions to EVs
报告认为，日本目前的发展道路和对电动汽车的长期抵制将对经济造成重大损害。日本国内生产的汽车约有一半用于出口(如果包括日本公司在海外生产的汽车，出口比例达到了82%)，日本公司供应的乘用车占全球的13%。如果世界市场对日本的油老虎失去兴趣，而其他人都转向电动汽车，这个数字可能会大幅削减
报告认为，日本目前的发展道路和对电动汽车的长期抵制将对经济造成重大损害。日本国内生产的汽车约有一半用于出口(如果包括日本公司在海外生产的汽车，出口比例达到了82%)，日本公司供应的乘用车占全球的13%。如果世界市场对日本的油老虎失去兴趣，而其他人都转向电动汽车，这个数字可能会大幅削减
Given the large chunk of Japan that is employed in automotive-related industries, this could result in a mass loss of jobs for the country. About 8% of the Japanese workforce, or over 5 million workers, are employed in automotive-related industries. The report suggests that Japan would lose 1.7 million jobs in automotive-related industries as domestic vehicles produced for export are cut in half.
考虑到日本很大一部分人受雇于汽车相关行业，这可能会导致该国大量失业。约8%的日本劳动力，也就是超过500万工人受雇于汽车相关行业。该报告显示，如果日本用于出口的国产汽车产品减半，汽车相关行业将失去170万个工作岗位。
考虑到日本很大一部分人受雇于汽车相关行业，这可能会导致该国大量失业。约8%的日本劳动力，也就是超过500万工人受雇于汽车相关行业。该报告显示，如果日本用于出口的国产汽车产品减半，汽车相关行业将失去170万个工作岗位。
The shift to EVs would not come without a reorganization of current workers – with some work being lost in automotive parts supply, for example – but it also presents opportunities for new jobs, such as charger installation or battery supply for domestic and international manufacturing.
转向电动汽车离不开现有工人的重组——例如，汽车零部件供应方面的一些工作将会减少——但这也带来了新的就业机会，比如为国内和国际制造业安装充电器或供应电池。
转向电动汽车离不开现有工人的重组——例如，汽车零部件供应方面的一些工作将会减少——但这也带来了新的就业机会，比如为国内和国际制造业安装充电器或供应电池。
The situation is likened to Japan’s former dominance of the semiconductor and home appliance industries, which flourished decades ago. In both industries, Japan occupied a dominant position but became overconfident and did not respond rapidly enough to changes, allowing competitors in China, Taiwan, South Korea, the United States and elsewhere to take market share. As a result, while Japan still exports plenty of electronics, its economy has become more reliant on the automotive sector to bring money in.
这种情况与日本几十年前在半导体和家电行业的繁荣时期类似。在这两个行业，日本都占据主导地位，但过于自信，对变化的反应不够迅速，让中国大陆、台湾、韩国、美国和其他地方的竞争对手抢占了市场份额。因此，尽管日本仍出口大量电子产品，但其经济已更加依赖汽车行业来吸引资金。
这种情况与日本几十年前在半导体和家电行业的繁荣时期类似。在这两个行业，日本都占据主导地位，但过于自信，对变化的反应不够迅速，让中国大陆、台湾、韩国、美国和其他地方的竞争对手抢占了市场份额。因此，尽管日本仍出口大量电子产品，但其经济已更加依赖汽车行业来吸引资金。
How Japan can move forward
It’s not all doom-and-gloom, though. The report notes that Japan does have a significant lead on electrification-related patents, though these are largely associated with hybrid technology rather than BEVs.
日本该如何前进？
不过，也不全是厄运与低迷。报告指出，日本在电气化相关专利方面确实处于显著领先地位，尽管这些专利主要与混合动力技术有关，而不是纯电动汽车。
It’s not all doom-and-gloom, though. The report notes that Japan does have a significant lead on electrification-related patents, though these are largely associated with hybrid technology rather than BEVs.
日本该如何前进？
不过，也不全是厄运与低迷。报告指出，日本在电气化相关专利方面确实处于显著领先地位，尽管这些专利主要与混合动力技术有关，而不是纯电动汽车。
It also makes several policy proposals going forward for Japan. It suggests that the Japanese government move quickly to take these steps:
报告还为日本提出了若干政策建议。建议日本政府迅速采取以下措施:
报告还为日本提出了若干政策建议。建议日本政府迅速采取以下措施:
Invest heavily in battery development, an area which Japan already has experience through Panasonic’s supplying of Tesla with batteries. This includes funding research into next-generation battery and semiconductor technologies.
大力投资电池开发，日本通过松下向特斯拉供应电池，获得了这一领域的经验。其中包括资助下一代电池和半导体技术的研究。
大力投资电池开发，日本通过松下向特斯拉供应电池，获得了这一领域的经验。其中包括资助下一代电池和半导体技术的研究。
Reduce or eliminate subsidies for consumer fuel cell vehicles, which Japanese companies have heretofore supported. FCEVs will likely not be relevant in consumer applications but may find use in heavy-duty applications or other niches, and research should be supported in those niches, rather than consumer vehicles.
减少或取消日本公司迄今为止一直支持的消费级燃料电池汽车补贴。燃料电池电动车可能与消费类应用无关，但可能会在重型应用或其他细分市场中使用，并且应该支持这些细分市场的研究，而不是消费类汽车。
减少或取消日本公司迄今为止一直支持的消费级燃料电池汽车补贴。燃料电池电动车可能与消费类应用无关，但可能会在重型应用或其他细分市场中使用，并且应该支持这些细分市场的研究，而不是消费类汽车。
Craft policy toward scrapping inefficient ICE vehicles and subsidizing low-priced BEVs. Further, consider stricter regulations on vehicles that don’t meet zero-emission criteria.
制定报废低效内燃机汽车和补贴低价纯电动汽车的政策。此外，考虑对不符合零排放标准的车辆实施更严格的监管。
制定报废低效内燃机汽车和补贴低价纯电动汽车的政策。此外，考虑对不符合零排放标准的车辆实施更严格的监管。
Design “right to charge” laws to support home charging in condos and apartments, where many Japanese live.
Install fast charging at highway service areas to allow longer distance travel in BEVs.
Develop distributed grid power and vehicle-to-grid technologies.
设计“充电权”法律，支持在独栋产权公寓和公共公寓(许多日本人居住的地方)进行家庭充电。
在高速公路服务区安装快速充电，允许电动汽车行驶更远的距离。
发展分布式电网和车网技术。
Install fast charging at highway service areas to allow longer distance travel in BEVs.
Develop distributed grid power and vehicle-to-grid technologies.
设计“充电权”法律，支持在独栋产权公寓和公共公寓(许多日本人居住的地方)进行家庭充电。
在高速公路服务区安装快速充电，允许电动汽车行驶更远的距离。
发展分布式电网和车网技术。
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GusLevy
Akio Toyoda, Toyota CEO, is about to serve his third straight term as Chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. This influential organization tells Japan’s leaders who, what, where and when the domestic auto industry is heading and to ensure the political backing to do so.
丰田汽车首席执行官丰田章男即将连续第三次担任日本汽车制造商协会主席。这个有影响力的组织告诉日本领导人，国内汽车行业的对象、内容、领域和时机，并要求领导人对此提供政治支持。
Akio Toyoda, Toyota CEO, is about to serve his third straight term as Chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. This influential organization tells Japan’s leaders who, what, where and when the domestic auto industry is heading and to ensure the political backing to do so.
丰田汽车首席执行官丰田章男即将连续第三次担任日本汽车制造商协会主席。这个有影响力的组织告诉日本领导人，国内汽车行业的对象、内容、领域和时机，并要求领导人对此提供政治支持。
JAMA’s official plan is to produce ICE vehicles until at least 2050. The group’s official goal - for the entire domestic industry- is to aim for 8mm BEVs produced in 2030.
日本汽车工业协会的官方计划是至少到2050年仍然会生产内燃机汽车。该组织的官方目标——整个国内行业——在2030年生产800万辆纯电动汽车。
日本汽车工业协会的官方计划是至少到2050年仍然会生产内燃机汽车。该组织的官方目标——整个国内行业——在2030年生产800万辆纯电动汽车。
Toyota was famous for introducing the “just-in-time” manufacturing process to the auto industry which reduced costs and increased efficiency and profits. An obxtive observer would look at the facts of what is going on with the Japanese auto industry today and likely conclude that these OEM’s simply believe that they can order the necessary supply of batteries and other critical EV materials when they are “needed”.
丰田因将“无库存制度”生产流程引入汽车行业而闻名，该流程降低了成本，提高了效率和利润。一个客观的观察者会看到今天日本汽车工业正在发生的事实，并可能得出这样的结论:这些贴牌加工只是认为，当“需要”时，他们可以订购必要的电池和其他关键的电动汽车材料。
丰田因将“无库存制度”生产流程引入汽车行业而闻名，该流程降低了成本，提高了效率和利润。一个客观的观察者会看到今天日本汽车工业正在发生的事实，并可能得出这样的结论:这些贴牌加工只是认为，当“需要”时，他们可以订购必要的电池和其他关键的电动汽车材料。
Tesla has the official goal of producing 20m BEVs by 2030. VW has the unofficial goal of riding in Tesla’s wake and produce as much as they can as Tesla leads. The Chinese are working furiously to gain a major stake in the huge global Auto industry that it never had the chance to under ICE hegemony.
特斯拉的官方目标是到2030年生产2000万辆电动汽车。大众的非官方目标是紧跟特斯拉的步伐，尽可能多地生产特斯拉引领的产品。中国人正在疯狂地工作，以获得巨大的全球汽车行业的主要股份，在内燃机汽车霸权下，他们从未有机会获得这些份额。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
特斯拉的官方目标是到2030年生产2000万辆电动汽车。大众的非官方目标是紧跟特斯拉的步伐，尽可能多地生产特斯拉引领的产品。中国人正在疯狂地工作，以获得巨大的全球汽车行业的主要股份，在内燃机汽车霸权下，他们从未有机会获得这些份额。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Japan is F’ed…this is the classic case of a fool leading the blind…
日本完蛋了，这是傻子引路的经典案例。
日本完蛋了，这是傻子引路的经典案例。
nickvoge GusLevy
Not surprising from folks who thought that battleships would decided the Pacific War.
对于那些认为战列舰将决定太平洋战争胜负的人来说，这并不奇怪。
Not surprising from folks who thought that battleships would decided the Pacific War.
对于那些认为战列舰将决定太平洋战争胜负的人来说，这并不奇怪。
spec9 GusLevy
Having an ancient old guy lead everything is going backfire on them.
什么都是老家伙领导，结果只会适得其反。
Having an ancient old guy lead everything is going backfire on them.
什么都是老家伙领导，结果只会适得其反。
Bill Weber GusLevy
Interestingly, Henry Ford also had contributions to JIT manufacturing. While Taichi Ohno, creator of Toyota’s production system, credits Henry Ford as the originator, it is now known that Ernest Kanzler, one of Ford’s subordinates, played a major role in developing JIT production methods.
有趣的是，亨利·福特对准时生产制造也有贡献。虽然丰田生产体系的创始人大野太一将亨利·福特誉为创始人，但现在人们知道，福特的下属之一欧内斯特·坎兹勒在开发准时生产制造方面发挥了重要作用。
Interestingly, Henry Ford also had contributions to JIT manufacturing. While Taichi Ohno, creator of Toyota’s production system, credits Henry Ford as the originator, it is now known that Ernest Kanzler, one of Ford’s subordinates, played a major role in developing JIT production methods.
有趣的是，亨利·福特对准时生产制造也有贡献。虽然丰田生产体系的创始人大野太一将亨利·福特誉为创始人，但现在人们知道，福特的下属之一欧内斯特·坎兹勒在开发准时生产制造方面发挥了重要作用。
Tom
Unfortunately Toyota have been actively lobbying against EVs. At least Nissan has the leaf. Buy Tesla, not Toyota.
不幸的是，丰田一直在积极游说反对电动汽车。至少尼桑还有聆风。买特斯拉，不要买丰田。
Unfortunately Toyota have been actively lobbying against EVs. At least Nissan has the leaf. Buy Tesla, not Toyota.
不幸的是，丰田一直在积极游说反对电动汽车。至少尼桑还有聆风。买特斯拉，不要买丰田。
gizmowiz Tom
Buy VW, GM, Chevy, Ford--anything but a Toyota or a Tesla. No Toyota's for their aloof and cockiness, no Tesla's for their greedy price structure which prices the average American out of the field. The average American simply can't afford over 100% of a years wage for a car regardless of the maintenance and fuel savings. Many Tesla's are over twice a years wage for a car. Insane. Perhaps smart by Musk when supply is short and demand is high but greed will be his downfall.
买大众、通用、雪佛兰、福特，但不要买丰田或特斯拉。不买丰田是因为他们的冷漠和自大，不买特斯拉是因为他们贪婪的价格结构，这个价格把普通美国人甩在了后面。普通美国人用整整一年的工资根本买不起一辆汽车，这还不考虑维保和燃料节省。一辆特斯拉甚至要耗费两年的工资。疯了。在供应短缺、需求旺盛的情况下，马斯克可能很聪明，但贪婪将导致失败。
Buy VW, GM, Chevy, Ford--anything but a Toyota or a Tesla. No Toyota's for their aloof and cockiness, no Tesla's for their greedy price structure which prices the average American out of the field. The average American simply can't afford over 100% of a years wage for a car regardless of the maintenance and fuel savings. Many Tesla's are over twice a years wage for a car. Insane. Perhaps smart by Musk when supply is short and demand is high but greed will be his downfall.
买大众、通用、雪佛兰、福特，但不要买丰田或特斯拉。不买丰田是因为他们的冷漠和自大，不买特斯拉是因为他们贪婪的价格结构，这个价格把普通美国人甩在了后面。普通美国人用整整一年的工资根本买不起一辆汽车，这还不考虑维保和燃料节省。一辆特斯拉甚至要耗费两年的工资。疯了。在供应短缺、需求旺盛的情况下，马斯克可能很聪明，但贪婪将导致失败。
gizmowiz
Let Japan's auto industry fade away. Serves them right for being so cocky and aloof.
让日本的汽车工业消失吧。他们是自作自受。
Let Japan's auto industry fade away. Serves them right for being so cocky and aloof.
让日本的汽车工业消失吧。他们是自作自受。
lopan
It may be too late for "Old Man Japan" in the auto industry. They don't want to change, and refuse to recognize that it's not optional.
对于汽车行业的“日本老人”来说，现在可能为时已晚。他们不想改变，也拒绝承认这是不可选的。
It may be too late for "Old Man Japan" in the auto industry. They don't want to change, and refuse to recognize that it's not optional.
对于汽车行业的“日本老人”来说，现在可能为时已晚。他们不想改变，也拒绝承认这是不可选的。
Even if they did try, I wonder if Japanese society has it in them anymore. Imagination gets costly the older you get, and they don't want to import immigrants to do it for them. Doesn't leave a lot of room for alternatives.
即使他们真的尝试了，我想知道日本社会是否还有这种精神。随着年龄的增长，想象力变得越来越昂贵，他们不想引进移民来为他们做这件事。这样就没有多少选择的余地了。
即使他们真的尝试了，我想知道日本社会是否还有这种精神。随着年龄的增长，想象力变得越来越昂贵，他们不想引进移民来为他们做这件事。这样就没有多少选择的余地了。
There's no "Sailing to Byzantium" option for an automaker.
汽车制造商没有“驶向拜占庭”的选择。
汽车制造商没有“驶向拜占庭”的选择。
spec9 lopan
Old man is indeed the problem, IMHO. That's the only explanation that makes sense for their refusal to adopt EVs....a gerontocracy of old man management.
恕我直言，老人确实是个问题。这是他们拒绝电动汽车的唯一合理解释....老人管理的老人政治。
Old man is indeed the problem, IMHO. That's the only explanation that makes sense for their refusal to adopt EVs....a gerontocracy of old man management.
恕我直言，老人确实是个问题。这是他们拒绝电动汽车的唯一合理解释....老人管理的老人政治。
earl colby pottinger spec9
Really, there seems to be a lack of young competitors in Japan. Whether you look at China, EU or North America you see older people running the big older companies but you are see younger people with newer companies (many that will fail) trying to take away market share. Result, there is always pressure on the older management to up their game.
确实，日本似乎缺乏年轻的竞争者。无论中国、欧盟还是北美，你看到的都是年纪较大的人经营着规模较大的旧企业，但也能看到年轻人经营着新公司(许多公司将倒闭)，试图夺取市场份额。结果，老管理层总是面临压力，要求他们提高水平。
Really, there seems to be a lack of young competitors in Japan. Whether you look at China, EU or North America you see older people running the big older companies but you are see younger people with newer companies (many that will fail) trying to take away market share. Result, there is always pressure on the older management to up their game.
确实，日本似乎缺乏年轻的竞争者。无论中国、欧盟还是北美，你看到的都是年纪较大的人经营着规模较大的旧企业，但也能看到年轻人经营着新公司(许多公司将倒闭)，试图夺取市场份额。结果，老管理层总是面临压力，要求他们提高水平。
However, I can't remember the last time I heard of some younger company/management in Japan putting pressure on local big companies.
然而，我不记得上次听说日本一些年轻的企业和管理层对当地大企业施加压力是什么时候了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
然而，我不记得上次听说日本一些年轻的企业和管理层对当地大企业施加压力是什么时候了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
spec9
Seriously, WTF are they doing? Even Nissan is lagging now. They let the LEAF go obsolete and they still haven't delivered the Ariya.
说真的，他们到底在干什么?就连日产现在也落后了。聆风已经过时了，艾睿雅还没交付。
Seriously, WTF are they doing? Even Nissan is lagging now. They let the LEAF go obsolete and they still haven't delivered the Ariya.
说真的，他们到底在干什么?就连日产现在也落后了。聆风已经过时了，艾睿雅还没交付。
Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe
Japanese automakers beat Detroit by hanging back and producing fossil fuelled cars with higher quality.
That won't work with a technology change, EVs are already inherently more reliable than gasoline engines.
日本汽车制造商的生产更高质量化石燃料汽车击败了底特律。
随着技术的变化，这已经行不通，电动汽车本来就比汽油发动机更可靠。
Japanese automakers beat Detroit by hanging back and producing fossil fuelled cars with higher quality.
That won't work with a technology change, EVs are already inherently more reliable than gasoline engines.
日本汽车制造商的生产更高质量化石燃料汽车击败了底特律。
随着技术的变化，这已经行不通，电动汽车本来就比汽油发动机更可靠。
But the philosophy of the glory days is still bearing fruit so change in business philosophy will not come easily.
It will come eventually, but how much market share will they have ceded by then?
但辉煌时期的哲学仍在结出果实，因此商业哲学的改变没有那么容易。
但是最终还是会到来，到那时他们会让出多少市场份额呢?
It will come eventually, but how much market share will they have ceded by then?
但辉煌时期的哲学仍在结出果实，因此商业哲学的改变没有那么容易。
但是最终还是会到来，到那时他们会让出多少市场份额呢?
Ian Macdonald Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe
Not so much market share, but market full stop. They may be producing ICE cars in 2050, but almost no one will be buying them anywhere in the world. They will dominate market share though! In reality they will not still exist in 2050.
虽然市场份额不高，但市场全部停止了。可能2050年还在生产内燃机汽车，但几乎没有人会购买。那么他们肯定会主导市场份额!真相是2050年这些企业将不复存在。
Not so much market share, but market full stop. They may be producing ICE cars in 2050, but almost no one will be buying them anywhere in the world. They will dominate market share though! In reality they will not still exist in 2050.
虽然市场份额不高，但市场全部停止了。可能2050年还在生产内燃机汽车，但几乎没有人会购买。那么他们肯定会主导市场份额!真相是2050年这些企业将不复存在。
Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe Ian Macdonald
Honda and Toyota will transition to EVs, they simply think being behind the curve then swooping in and cleaning up will work a second time.
It won't, but the sooner they start scaling EVs the more market share they will retain.
本田和丰田将过渡到电动汽车，他们认为那套后知后觉、迅速跟进，整理将再次起作用。
不会起作用了，但越早开始扩大电动汽车的规模，就能保留越多的市场份额。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Honda and Toyota will transition to EVs, they simply think being behind the curve then swooping in and cleaning up will work a second time.
It won't, but the sooner they start scaling EVs the more market share they will retain.
本田和丰田将过渡到电动汽车，他们认为那套后知后觉、迅速跟进，整理将再次起作用。
不会起作用了，但越早开始扩大电动汽车的规模，就能保留越多的市场份额。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Sivakrishna T
Japan is already being overshadowed by South Korea, Taiwan, China.
日本已经被韩国、台湾和中国大陆抢了风头。
Japan is already being overshadowed by South Korea, Taiwan, China.
日本已经被韩国、台湾和中国大陆抢了风头。
Ripi
I think I read a similar article a few years ago. On an unrelated note, did anybody see Toyota's earnings release this week?
几年前我读过一篇类似的文章。说句题外话，有人看丰田本周发布的收益报告了吗?
I think I read a similar article a few years ago. On an unrelated note, did anybody see Toyota's earnings release this week?
几年前我读过一篇类似的文章。说句题外话，有人看丰田本周发布的收益报告了吗?
trackdaze Ripi · 7 months ago
Hybrid sales and modest growth are keeping it in the game for now. EV fleet is now greater than the 20million hybrids Toyota has sold and is accelerating away in half the time Toyota has been doing hybrids. Forecasts says Hybrids peak is 2025.
油电混合和适度增长保证他目前为止还是游戏参与者。现在电动汽车的数量超过了丰田的2000万辆混合动力汽车，而且速度比丰田混合动力汽车的时间缩短了一半。预测称混合动力车将在2025年达到峰值。
Hybrid sales and modest growth are keeping it in the game for now. EV fleet is now greater than the 20million hybrids Toyota has sold and is accelerating away in half the time Toyota has been doing hybrids. Forecasts says Hybrids peak is 2025.
油电混合和适度增长保证他目前为止还是游戏参与者。现在电动汽车的数量超过了丰田的2000万辆混合动力汽车，而且速度比丰田混合动力汽车的时间缩短了一半。预测称混合动力车将在2025年达到峰值。
super390 Ripi
So was GM in 2006. They rode a winning hand by relying on bad loans so that ever-poorer Americans could keep buying ever-more expensive pickups and SUVs.
For Toyota, the complacency is that we won't have more fossil fuel-based crises or outright bans on its uses.
2006年的通用汽车也是如此，依靠不良贷款赢得了胜利，因此越来越贫穷的美国人可以继续购买越来越昂贵的皮卡和越野车。
对丰田来说，他们盲目乐观的是我们不会再出现化石燃料危机，也不会彻底禁止化石燃料的使用。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
So was GM in 2006. They rode a winning hand by relying on bad loans so that ever-poorer Americans could keep buying ever-more expensive pickups and SUVs.
For Toyota, the complacency is that we won't have more fossil fuel-based crises or outright bans on its uses.
2006年的通用汽车也是如此，依靠不良贷款赢得了胜利，因此越来越贫穷的美国人可以继续购买越来越昂贵的皮卡和越野车。
对丰田来说，他们盲目乐观的是我们不会再出现化石燃料危机，也不会彻底禁止化石燃料的使用。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Ripi super390
I'm betting we won't have outright bans on FF uses also. I'm pretty confident no politician wants to destroy the economy and kill millions of people.
Ask for GM. I don't see the parallel. Toyota is not doing any of the same things GM did.
我打赌我们也不会完全禁止化石燃料。我非常确信，没有哪个政客愿意破坏经济，杀死数百万人。
去找通用吧，我看不出有什么共同点。丰田没有做任何和通用相同的事情。
I'm betting we won't have outright bans on FF uses also. I'm pretty confident no politician wants to destroy the economy and kill millions of people.
Ask for GM. I don't see the parallel. Toyota is not doing any of the same things GM did.
我打赌我们也不会完全禁止化石燃料。我非常确信，没有哪个政客愿意破坏经济，杀死数百万人。
去找通用吧，我看不出有什么共同点。丰田没有做任何和通用相同的事情。
It seems like the argument you're making is that since one company failed, every company you don't like will fail.
But the real crux of this argument is technology. Just because Toyota isn't producing hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles doesn't mean they aren't developing the technology.
你的论点似乎是，既然一家公司倒闭了，那么你不喜欢的所有公司都会倒闭。
但这场争论的真正症结在于技术。不能因为丰田没有生产数十万辆电动汽车就说它们没有开发这项技术。
But the real crux of this argument is technology. Just because Toyota isn't producing hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles doesn't mean they aren't developing the technology.
你的论点似乎是，既然一家公司倒闭了，那么你不喜欢的所有公司都会倒闭。
但这场争论的真正症结在于技术。不能因为丰田没有生产数十万辆电动汽车就说它们没有开发这项技术。
Gaara The Kazekage Ripi
Most of those profits are from overseas subsidiaries who aren't not in Toyota's control. Those profits will remain in the host nations forever, while Toyota has the benefit of writing them on financial statements to entertain the shareholders.
For example, Toyota in China isn't allowed to get its money out of China.
这些利润大部分来自海外子公司，这些子公司不在丰田的控制之下。这些利润将永远留在子公司所在国，而丰田则可以将这些利润写在财务报表上，取悦股东。
例如，中国不允许丰田公司将资金转出中国。
Most of those profits are from overseas subsidiaries who aren't not in Toyota's control. Those profits will remain in the host nations forever, while Toyota has the benefit of writing them on financial statements to entertain the shareholders.
For example, Toyota in China isn't allowed to get its money out of China.
这些利润大部分来自海外子公司，这些子公司不在丰田的控制之下。这些利润将永远留在子公司所在国，而丰田则可以将这些利润写在财务报表上，取悦股东。
例如，中国不允许丰田公司将资金转出中国。
Ripi Gaara The Kazekage
So? It owns 50 percent of Toyota China, and it's the fastest growing large market, so why would they pull their money out?
I suppose (of course) Tesla can pull their money out of China.
所以呢?拥有丰田中国50%的股份，而且中国是增长最快的大型市场，为什么要把钱转出去呢?
我想特斯拉(当然)可以把钱从中国转出去。
So? It owns 50 percent of Toyota China, and it's the fastest growing large market, so why would they pull their money out?
I suppose (of course) Tesla can pull their money out of China.
所以呢?拥有丰田中国50%的股份，而且中国是增长最快的大型市场，为什么要把钱转出去呢?
我想特斯拉(当然)可以把钱从中国转出去。
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