日本军事雄心面临的巨大挑战:人口危机
2023-12-30 骑着毛驴到处走 4726
正文翻译

After 75 years of peace, Japan is facing immense challenges in its rush to build a more formidable military. To understand why, consider the Noshiro, a newly commissioned navy frigate equipped with anti-ship missiles and submarine-tracking sonar.

经历了75年的和平之后,日本急于建立一支更强大的军队,在这个过程中,它面临着巨大的挑战。要理解其中的原因,不妨看看新服役的海上自卫队护卫舰、配备了反舰导弹和潜艇跟踪声纳的“能代”号(Noshiro)。
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The vessel was designed with an understaffed force in mind: It can function with about two-thirds of the crew needed to operate a predecessor model. Right now, it puts out to sea with even fewer sailors than that.

这艘船在设计时考虑到了人手不足的情况:它所需的船员数量只有前代型号的三分之二左右。现在,它出海时的水手人数甚至比这还要少。

On the ship’s bridge, tasks that previously occupied seven or eight crew members have been consolidated into using three or four. The ship’s nurse doubles as dishwasher and cook. Extra sprinklers were installed to compensate for the smaller staff onboard to fight fires at sea.

在舰桥上,以前需要七八名船员完成的任务,现在合并到三四名船员身上。船上的护士兼做洗碗工和厨师。船上安装了额外的喷水灭火装置,以弥补海上灭火人员的不足。

“We are systematizing a lot of things,” Capt. Yoshihiro Iwata, 44, said when the frigate was docked recently in Sasebo, in southwestern Japan. “But, to be honest,” he added, “one person is doing two or three different jobs.”

“我们正在把很多事情系统化,”44岁的岩田义宏(音)上尉最近在护卫舰停靠在日本西南部的佐世保市时说。“但是,说实话,”他还说,“一个人要做两三种不同的工作。”

The slimmed-down crew on the Noshiro nods to the stark demographic reality in Japan as it confronts its gravest security threats in decades from China’s increasingly provocative military actions and North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal.

中国日益挑衅的军事行动和朝鲜日益增长的核武库,正使日本面临着几十年来最严重的安全威胁,与此同时,能代号上的船员精简反映了日本严峻的人口现实。

Japan has committed to raising military spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product, or by about 60 percent, over the next five years, which would give it the third-largest defense budget in the world. It is rapidly acquiring Tomahawk missiles and has spent about $30 million on ballistic missile defense systems.

日本已承诺在未来五年内将军费开支提高到国内生产总值的2%,增幅约为60%,这将使该国的国防预算位列世界第三。它正在迅速采购战斧导弹,并在弹道导弹防御系统上花费了大约3000万美元。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


But as the population rapidly ages and shrinks — nearly a third of Japanese people are over 65, and births fell to a record low last year — experts worry that the military simply won’t be able to staff traditional fleets and squadrons.

但是,随着人口迅速老龄化和萎缩——近三分之一的日本人超过65岁,去年出生率降至历史最低水平——专家们担心,军队将无法为传统的舰队和中队配备人员。

The army, navy and air force have failed to reach recruitment targets for years, and the number of active personnel — about 247,000 — is nearly 10 percent lower than it was in 1990.

陆上自卫队、海上自卫队和航空自卫队常年无法完成征兵目标,现役人员约为24.7万人,比1990年减少了近10%。

Even as Japan struggles to recruit conventional troops, it must also attract new battalions of technologically savvy soldiers to operate sophisticated equipment or protect against cyberattacks. For some tasks, military leaders say they can turn to unmanned systems like drones, but such technology can still require large numbers of personnel to operate.

在努力招募常规部队的同时,日本还必须吸引新一批精通技术的士兵来操作复杂的设备,或抵御网络攻击。军方领导人表示,对于某些任务,他们可以转为使用无人机等无人系统,但此类技术仍然需要大量人员来操作。

The demographic challenges pose economic ones, too: There is strong public resistance to tax increases to fund the defense budget at a time of rising social costs for older people.

人口方面的挑战也带来了经济方面的挑战:在老年人的社会成本不断上升之际,公众强烈反对通过增税来为国防预算提供资金。

“The budget itself cannot defend the country,” said Yoji Koda, a retired vice admiral. “The fundamental thing is how to recruit,” he added. “That means thinking about how to wake the kind of sleeping Japanese community up.”

“预算本身并不能保卫国家,”退役中将香田洋二说。“最根本的问题是如何征兵,”他还说。“这意味着要思考如何唤醒那些在沉睡的日本群体。”

With the United States stretched thin by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as well as growing competition with China, it needs Japan to become a more equal partner. Since the end of World War II, Japan, which hosts more American troops than any other nation, has effectively been a protectorate of the United States.

乌克兰和加沙战争,以及同中国日益激烈的竞争让美国捉襟见肘,它需要日本成为一个更加平等的伙伴。自“第二次世界大战”结束以来,在日本驻扎的美军比在任何其他国家都多,日本实际上已经是美国的保护领地。

So far, American political and military leaders have spoken approvingly of Japan’s defense progress, hailing its budgetary expansion and new investments in military hardware. “It brings credibility to deterrence,” said Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan.

到目前为止,美国的政治和军事领导人对日本在防务方面取得的进展表示赞许,称赞其预算扩张和对军事装备的新投资。“这让威慑显得更可信了,”美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔说。

To demonstrate closer coordination, the two nations have expanded and accelerated military exercises.

为了展示更紧密的合作,两国扩大并加快了军事演习。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Last summer, during the largest-ever edition of Resolute Dragon, an annual bilateral exercise, the U.S. Marines and the Japanese military conducted operations “side by side,” said Lt. Gen. James W. Bierman, the commander of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force on Okinawa.

去年夏天,在有史以来规模最大的年度双边演习“不屈之龙”期间,驻冲绳海军陆战队第三远征军指挥官詹姆斯·比尔曼中将称美国海军陆战队和日本军队“并肩作战”。

The idea is to train with Japanese troops so that “we can truly swap out one platform or capacity from one nation for another,” said Rear Adm. Christopher D. Stone, commander of Expeditionary Strike Group Seven in Okinawa.

驻冲绳的第七远征打击群指挥官克里斯托弗·斯通少将说,演习的想法是与日本军队一起训练,这样“我们就能真正把一个国家的一个平台或能力换成另一个国家的”。

The tighter relationship comes as the Japanese public’s view of the military has evolved.

两国关系日益密切之际,日本公众对军队的看法也在发生变化。

The country has pacifism written into its Constitution, and, until recently, the public opposed the acquisition of missiles capable of striking enemy territory or legal changes that would allow Japanese troops, restricted by the Constitution to defense of the nation, to fight in some combat situations outside Japan. Now, as much of the population sees China as a threat to Japan’s security, polls show support for such measures.

日本把和平主义写进了宪法,直到前不久,公众还反对获得能够打击敌方领土的导弹,也反对修改法律,允许日本军队在日本境外的某些战斗情势下作战。日本宪法规定,日本军队只能保卫国家。现在,由于很多人认为中国对日本的安全构成威胁,民意调查显示支持这些措施。

That, however, has not translated into a surge in enlistment to Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, as the military is known.

然而,这并没有转化为日本自卫队的入伍人数激增。

“The societal acceptance of the S.D.F. is much wider and deeper” than in the past, said Ayumi Teraoka, a postdoctoral research scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute. “But that doesn’t translate to ‘OK, let’s send our kids to the S.D.F.’”

与过去相比,“社会对自卫队的接受程度要广泛和深入得多,”哥伦比亚大学韦瑟黑德东亚研究所博士后学者寺冈步(音)说。“但这并不意味着‘好的,我们把孩子送进自卫队去吧。’”

Gen. Yoshihide Yoshida, chairman of Japan’s joint staff, acknowledged the challenges in an interview at the Ministry of Defense in Tokyo. “We are facing huge struggles in recruiting,” he said, adding that “it’s not enough to just do what we have been doing,” given how quickly Japan wants to implement its ambitious goals.

参谋总长吉田圭秀上将在东京的防卫省接受采访时承认了这些挑战。“我们在征兵方面面临着巨大的困难,”他说。考虑到日本希望迅速实现其雄心勃勃的目标,他还说,“仅仅做我们一直在做的事情是不够的。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


To expand the overall ranks, General Yoshida said the Self-Defense Forces should increase the proportion of women to 12 percent, from less than 8 percent, by 2030. The military must recruit midcareer officers, collaborate with the private sector, and deploy artificial intelligence and unmanned systems, he said.

吉田圭秀表示,为了扩大整个队伍,自卫队应该在2030年之前,将女性的比例从不足8%提高到12%。他说,军方必须招募职业生涯中期的军官,与私营部门合作,并部署人工智能和无人系统。

The hurdles are high. Accounts of sexual harassment in the military discourage women from enlisting. With the unemployment rate at 2.5 percent, luring new graduates or job changers is difficult.

他们面临重重障碍。关于军队中性骚扰的报道使女性不愿入伍。在失业率为2.5%的情况下,吸引应届毕业生或转业者非常困难。

“In the past, people came to the Self-Defense Forces because they had no other choices,” said Col. Toshiyuki Aso, director of recruitment at a military center in Naha, the capital of Okinawa. “Now they have many more choices.”

“过去,人们之所以加入自卫队,是因为他们别无选择,”冲绳县首府那霸某军事中心的招募主管麻生俊之(音)上校说。“现在他们有了更多的选择。”

Posters aimed at drawing in women and older recruits papered the walls of the center, in a drab office building on a side street. “Protect people, it’s so rewarding,” read one slogan underneath a photograph of a female soldier. “A future to be proud of, even after retirement,” read another targeting prospective reserve officers. “It’s not over yet!”

该中心位于一条小街上的一栋普通的办公楼里,墙上贴满了旨在吸引女性和年长新兵的海报。一名女兵的照片下面写着一条标语:“保护人民,意义非凡。”“即使退休,未来也值得骄傲,”还有一条针对准预备役军官的标语写道,“人生尚未结束!”

A recent drill on a base in Naha revealed the labor demands of even mundane tasks: 90 troops assembled on a 50-yard-long concrete slab to practice repairing a runway after a hypothetical enemy attack. Over nearly three hours, they bulldozed piles of rubble and tamped down dirt with teeth-rattling soil compaction rammers.

最近在那霸市一个基地进行的一次演习显示,即使稀松平常的任务也需要辛苦的劳作:90名士兵聚集在一个约45米长的混凝土板上,练习在假想的敌人袭击后修复跑道。在近三个小时的时间里,他们用推土机推平了成堆的瓦砾,用发出巨响的夯土机把泥土夯实。

The troops completed their duties with artisanal care, smoothing newly laid concrete with hand trowels and sweeping away cement dust with small brushes.

士兵们以工匠般的细心完成了任务,用手铲平整新铺设的混凝土,用小刷子清扫水泥灰尘。

Sheer numbers aside, experts say the modern military will demand higher-level skills to operate advanced weaponry and surveillance equipment. Already, Japan lags its allies in protecting against cyberwarfare.

专家们表示,撇开人数不谈,现代军队将需要更高水平的技能来操作先进的武器和监视设备。在防范网络战方面,日本已经落后于盟友。

“There is no military structure to defend Japanese citizens against cyberattacks,” said Hideto Tomabechi, a computer scientist who has advised Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and is a fellow at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

“没有任何军事结构来保护日本公民免受网络攻击,”曾为日本自卫队提供咨询的计算机科学家、匹兹堡卡内基梅隆大学研究员苫米地英人说。

The government has said it plans to expand its military cyberforce to as many as 4,000 people, although many Japanese are leery of cybersecurity operations they believe could invade their privacy.

尽管许多日本人对网络安全行动持怀疑态度,认为这可能会侵犯他们的隐私,但日本政府表示计划将其网军部队扩大到4000人。

“There is a lot of worry that the government will be able to check on all private citizens’ emails and information and Web searches,” said Itsunori Onodera, a former defense minister.

前防卫大臣小野寺五典说,“人们非常担心,政府将具备检查所有公民的电子邮件、信息和网络搜索的能力。”

To make military service more appealing, General Yoshida said the Self-Defense Forces needed to offer higher salaries or better living quarters. Naval recruiters have trouble attracting sailors, for instance, because young prospects worry about being cut off from Wi-Fi at sea. American sailors, by contrast, can access social media on their phones and even receive deliveries from Amazon onboard.

吉田圭秀说,为了让服役更有吸引力,自卫队需要提供更高的工资或更好的居住条件。例如,海上自卫队招聘人员在吸引水手方面遇到了困难,因为年轻的潜在入伍者担心在海上无法使用Wi-Fi。相比之下,美国水兵可以通过手机访问社交媒体,甚至可以在船上收到亚马逊的快递。

Some recruitment tactics have fallen flat. Seeking to emulate the “Be All You Can Be” ads familiar to American moviegoers, the Self-Defense Forces aired ads in theaters last summer before showings of “The Silent Service,” a thriller set on a nuclear submarine.

一些征兵策略效果不佳。为了模仿美国电影观众所熟悉的那种“尽你所能”的广告,去年夏天,自卫队在放映以核潜艇为背景的惊悚片《沉默的舰队》(The Silent Service)之前,在影院播放了广告。

Asked if the advertisements had inspired new enlistments, Hironori Ogihara, a spokesman at the Okinawa recruiting center, grinned with a what-can-you-do shrug.

当被问及这些广告是否激励了新兵应召时,冲绳征兵中心的发言人荻原广守(音)笑着耸了耸肩,意思是“还能怎么办”。

“Not yet,” he said.

“还没有,”他说。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


评论翻译
Mushfique
Dhaka
This was a problem that was foreseeable as recently as 20 years ago and yet the Japanese government is as anti-immigrant as they come. The whole country is against bringing in people to sustain the economy. So what else do you expect? I have a friend who couldn't find accomodation in Tokyo not because of a lack of availability of options but because she's south asian and apparently our cooking creates too much smell and noise, and landlords would not lease their apartment to her.

这是一个20年前就可以预见的问题,但日本政府却一如既往地反对移民。整个国家都反对引进人口来维持经济。那你还能期待什么呢?我有一个朋友在东京找不到住处,不是因为没有选择,而是因为她是南亚人,显然我们的烹饪产生了太多的气味和噪音,房东不会把公寓租给她。

Tom
Bay Area
China has no designs on Okinawa or Japan’s main islands and never has throughout the 1,500 year long history of the two civilizations.
Hopefully the USA does not drag Japan into a conflict with China over Taiwan.

中国对冲绳(琉球)和日本列岛没有任何企图,在中日1500年的历史上也从来没有。
希望美国不要因为台湾问题把日本拖入与中国的冲突。

AT
Fukuoka, Japan
The expansion of defense budget might be necessary, facing the threats from North Korea and China. However, diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between these countries should not be abandoned. Also it should be emphasized that many Japanese are not in line with governments' decision, especially people in Okinawa who suffered most during WWII.

面对朝鲜和中国的威胁,扩大国防预算是必要的。也不能放弃缓韩日关系的外交努力。同时需要强调的是,很多日本人并不赞同政府的决定,尤其是二战期间受害最深的冲绳(琉球)人

Wheelerfield41
Baltimore,Md
We need to let the Japanese know if they aren't interested in defending themselves don't look at us to carry the load . Just like in Afghanistan we can help but they have to be serious about whether or not they want to be a free people . We've squandered our blood and treasure way too much over the last 75 years and it needs to end now .

我们需要让日本人知道,如果他们对保护自己不感兴趣,就不要指望我们来承担责任。就像在阿富汗,我们可以提供帮助,但他们必须认真考虑他们是否想成为一个自由的人民。在过去的75年里,我们浪费了太多的鲜血和财富,现在应该结束了。

William
NYC
@Wheelerfield41 Japan's situation is incomparable to that of Afghanistan's. The Japanese ARE free people who are one of the richest in the world and have a functioning democracy. They never asked us to carry the load for them. We told them they couldn't establish a military when we beat them in the Second World War.

日本的情况与阿富汗的情况是无法相提并论的。日本人是自由的,他们是世界上最富有的国民之一,拥有一个有效的民主制度。他们从来没有让我们替他们担负责任。当我们在第二次世界大战中打败他们时,我们告诉他们不能建立自己的军队。

carlos
san juan
Japan, Korea and even China is that the aging generations are immense and they devour a huge amount of the economic resources of their respective countries leaving very little room and resources for younger generations, basically theres no room and no money for babies.
We are beginning to see a similar scenario in the West where pensions, social security and healthcare are devouring exponential amounts of government budgets our situation is further complicated by immigration but theres no escaping the fact that the golden years of baby boomers will strain the finances and resources of the west to a near breaking point .

像日本,韩国,甚至中国都是老龄化的一代,他们吞噬了各自国家的大量经济资源,留给年轻一代的空间和资源非常少,基本上没有空间和钱来养孩子。
我们开始在西方看到类似的情况,养老金、社会保障和医疗保健正在吞噬大量的政府预算,我们的情况因移民而进一步复杂化,但不可避免的事实是,婴儿潮一代的黄金岁月将使西方的财政和资源紧张到接近崩溃的地步。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Maljoffre
Germany
The US encouraging the rearming of Japan and Germany will alarm and anger the surrounding neighbours of both countries who were the victims of their horrific war crimes.

美国鼓励日本和德国重新武装起来,将使这两个国家的周边邻国感到震惊和愤怒,因为它们是两国可怕战争罪行的受害者。

White Rabbit
NYC
There was a WSJ article a couple of days ago about the pathetic state of the military in many European countries. Since the end of the Cold War, everyone seems to think war is over. And anyway, we have the US to protect us.

《华尔街日报》几天前发表了一篇文章,讲述了许多欧洲国家军队的糟糕状况。自冷战结束以来,每个欧洲人似乎都认为战争已经结束。不管怎样,欧洲有美国保护我们。

Shostak Gary
Boston, MA USA
If Japan offered citizenship to Nepalese soldiers & their families it would aid in solving this problem. They could slowly train these soldiers in language & tech

如果日本向尼泊尔士兵和他们的家人提供公民身份,将有助于解决这个问题。他们可以慢慢训练这些士兵的语言和技术

Jin Defang
Florida
@Shostak Gary
this appealing solution meets the reality of a huge language barrier and a unique culture that large numbers of Japanese fear will be attenuated by immigration. Possibly limited term enlistments, as I believe Britain had for the also-Nepali Gurkas would work. At the end, the Gurkas would return to their native villages with a nice nest egg to start a business, buy a house, whatever.

这种看似美好的解决方案面临着巨大的语言障碍和文化壁垒,大量日本人也担心移民会冲击日本文化。 我认为英国对尼泊尔廓尔喀人实行的有限期征兵模式可能会奏效。结束服役后,廓尔喀人将带着一笔丰厚的养老金回到家乡,开始创业、买房等等。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


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