中国现在是 "世界上唯一的制造业超级大国"。它是如何发展得如此迅速的?(1)
2024-02-26 IPmod 9771
正文翻译


中国现在是 "世界上唯一的制造业超级大国"。它是如何发展得如此迅速的?(1)

评论翻译
"China is now the world’s sole manufacturing superpower", a mainstream European think think has acknowledged. Ben Norton explains China's historic growth and development model, and how the Chinese socialist market economy works.

欧洲主流智库承认,"中国现在是世界上唯一的制造业超级大国"。本-诺顿解释了中国历史性的增长和发展模式以及中国社会主义市场经济是如何运作的。

@sandhyache
Lifting 800 million people out of extreme poverty is historically more significant than building a pyramid or a Taj Mahal.

让8亿人摆脱极端贫困,比建造金字塔或泰姬陵更具历史意义。

@FlashpointKing
An old Chinese man once told me that he started life out making cheap wooden plastic toys for pennies and hardly enough to eat and today his children go to university, build microchips and AI. He said his generation give their lives so their children would never know the great humiliation. It's always stuck with me, what they have done in 50 years is incredible.

一位中国老人曾告诉我,他的一生从制作廉价的木制塑料玩具开始,挣的钱只够糊口,如今他的孩子上了大学,从事微型芯片和人工智能方面的工作。他说,他这一代人献出生命,就是为了让他们的孩子永远不需要经历这种羞辱。我一直记得这句话,他们在50年里所做的一切令人难以置信。

@catinbootsnow4267
Remind me the development story of South Korea. After the Korea War the old generations were dead poor, struggling hard, when many young South Koreab women had to work in the sex industry, just to make a living. Step by step, they changed their country and brought better lives to their children and grandchildren.

这让我想起了韩国的发展故事。朝鲜战争后,老一辈韩国人穷困潦倒,苦苦挣扎。只为谋生,当时许多韩国年轻女性不得不从事性产业,她们一步步地改变了自己的国家,给子孙后代带来了更好的生活。

@camu9721
These kind of stories are actually quite common among Chinese families, my grand parents on my father's side brought me up, I heard stories about how tough their life were growing up, my grandma was illiterate, my grandpa didn't get a chance to learn how to read and write until he was an adult, they did hard labors just to survive, but whatever chance they got, they would supported their kids' education. Among my uncles and aunts, they were always starving growing up, but lucky enough to be educated, 3 of them are college graduates, and among those, two would become distinguished professors. Among my siblings and cousins, we have doctors, engineers, and successful business men, now I have kids of my own, they are so spoiled compared to the environment in which we grew up, but I constantly try to tell them stories of their grand parents and great grand parents, I don't know how much it would get to them, I know it is not easy for them to comprehend given so much have changed, but I hope at least they don't forget the sacrifices that previous generation have done. The story of my family is definitely not unique, many that grew up with me had similar families stories, and compare to many of them, we are just average.

这样的故事在中国家庭中其实很常见,我是父亲那边的祖父母把我带大的,我听他们讲过他们成长过程中的艰辛。我的祖母是个文盲,我的祖父直到成年才有机会识字,他们为了生存而做苦工,但只要有机会,他们就会支持孩子们读书。在我的叔叔婶婶中,他们都是在饥饿中长大的,但幸运的是他们都受到了教育,其中有三位是大学毕业生,其中两位还成为了杰出的教授。在我的兄弟姐妹和表兄弟姐妹中,有医生、工程师和成功的商人,现在我也有了自己的孩子,与我们的成长环境相比,他们是如此娇生惯养,但我经常试图给他们讲他们的祖父母和曾祖父母的故事,我不知道他们能听进去多少,我知道他们不容易理解,因为情况已经发生了太多的变化,但我希望至少他们不会忘记上一代人所做的牺牲。我家的故事绝对不是独一无二的,很多和我一起长大的人都有类似的家庭故事,和他们中的很多人相比,我们只是普通人。

@turtlesoup8134
@catinbootsnow4267 The major difference between China and South Korea is that the south korean didn't know that their standing in the world is still very low due to their country being a vassal of the US. The US is gutting SK semiconductors to make the US companies competitive again while china is outcompeting SK on the rest of their industrial sectors. If you do not have sovereignty, you are forever a servant of the empire and that my friend is still a shame that the South Korean cannot get away from whether they know it or not. Always the side kick that will be sacrificed for the "hero" or villain in this case.

@catinbootsnow4267 中国和韩国的主要区别在于韩国人不知道他们在世界上的地位仍然很低,因为他们的国家是美国的附庸。美国正在削弱SK的半导体产业以使美国公司重新具有竞争力,而中国则在其他工业领域超越SK。如果你没有主权,你就永远是帝国的仆人,我的朋友,这仍然是韩国人无法摆脱的耻辱,不管他们知道与否。在这里,"英雄"或"恶棍"总是会被牺牲掉。

@yizhou1938
Not a fair comparison tho, Korea has been doing great, but its size is only as big as a state in China. It’s like to compare a semi-truck to a train!!!

这不是一个公平的比较,韩国一直做得很好,但它的面积只有中国的一个省那么大。这就好比拿半挂车和火车比!@Kellyray6683

@kellyray6683
We could learn a lot from China. We are handing a broke down economy to our children, while they hand over a thriving one.

我们可以从中国学到很多东西。我们把一个崩溃的经济交给了我们的后代,而他们却把一个欣欣向荣的经济交给了他们的后代。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@KaiserHooray
It's important to be aware of history. It helps prevent complacency, entitlement and arrogance. So, it's a grave mistake that his children not know about the great humiliation.

了解历史很重要,这有助于防止自满、自大和傲慢。所以,让他的孩子们不知道这段奇耻大辱是一个严重的错误。

@frankm6218
Very true story and very common story as well. In past 50 years China has changed from a country where people were barely feeding themselves into a country that over 800 million people have gone out of poverty.

非常真实的故事,也是非常普通的故事。在过去的50年里,中国从一个只能勉强糊口的国家变成了一个有8亿多人摆脱贫困的国家。

@turtlesoup8134
@frankm6218 No, not a common story at all. The common story is developing nation that get stuck in its development path and unable to move up the industry chain. Only South Korea, China(mainland, taiwan, HK) and Singapore manage to move up. I don't count Japan as they have industrialized much earlier before WW2. Upcoming possible country added to this group is Vietnam, but vietnam's path is quite different so far and unable to move up with the speed of China and South Korea.

@frankm6218 不,这根本不是一个普通的故事。常见的情况是发展中国家陷入发展困境,无法向产业链上游移动。只有韩国、中国(大陆、台湾、香港)和新加坡能做到这一点。我没有把日本算在内,因为他们在二战前就已经实现了工业化。即将加入这一行列的国家可能是越南,但迄今为止,越南的发展道路与中国和韩国大相径庭,它无法像中国和韩国那样快速发展。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@FlashpointKing
@camu9721 The same man I'm talking about couldn't read or write either and yet his granddaughter was sitting 10 yards from us using an Ipad. It's hard to comprehend the generational difference in terms of quality of life and education. In just one generation.

@camu9721 我说的那个人也不识字,但他的孙女就坐在离我们10码远的地方用着Ipad。很难理解一代人在生活质量和教育方面的差异。仅仅一代人。

@sciagurrato1831
@camu9721 sad to hear that you weren’t able to raise your children in a way that they would revere the past and its great lessons. Sounds like they’ll just add to the flotsam of their “privileged” generation. They’re actually not privileged in any deep sense.

@camu9721 听到你没能以一种让孩子们敬畏过去及其伟大教训的方式来教育他们,我感到很难过。听起来他们只会为他们"享有特权"的一代人添砖加瓦。实际上,他们并没有任何深层意义上的特权。

@thisiscarl7622
i am from Guizhou province (most poorest province in China), my mother isan illiterate and father just graduated from middle school. my parents have 3 sons, i am the middle one, i am doing my phd in Germany (physics), my younger brother has his own restaurant in Zunyi city, my older brother is working in a internet giant -Meituan. this is the story of my family. the life of my generation is totally different from my parents. This kinda story is very common in my high school classmates.

我来自贵州省(中国最贫穷的省份),我的母亲是个文盲,父亲初中刚毕业。我父母有三个儿子,我是中间那个,我现在在德国读博士(物理学),弟弟在遵义市开了一家自己的餐馆,哥哥在一家互联网巨头美团工作。这样的故事在我的高中同学中很常见。

@wong3150
@turtlesoup8134 Although Japan’s population is declining and aging, it still has a big population relative to many countries like Singapore and Taiwan. I think that its decelerated industrial growth is the result of a bitter lesson from the US culminating in the 1985 Plaza Accord that almost destroyed its economy. As Japan is highly reliant upon the US for its national security, it has no option but to operate under the radar lest it annoys Uncle Sam again. The Japanese has lost their enthusiasm to be No.1. To rise again, Japan must move away from Uncle Sam and be independent in national defence. This is similar with the European countries that are members of NATO - they are all subservient to the US and none are better than the US on any measure because they are not allowed to. Germany is Europe’s biggest economy and most advanced nation but it is still a laggard relative to the US and the Americans are happy with this because this doesn’t pose an existential threat to their hegemony and imperialism.

@turtlesoup8134 虽然日本的人口正在减少和老龄化,但与新加坡和台湾地区等许多国家/地区相比,它的人口数量仍然很大。我认为,日本工业增长减速的原因是受到了美国的严厉教训,1985 年的广场协议几乎摧毁了日本的经济。由于日本在国家安全方面高度依赖美国,所以它别无选择,只能息事宁人以免再次惹恼山姆大叔。日本人已经失去了成为世界第一的热情。要想重新崛起,日本必须摆脱山姆大叔,在国防上独立自主。作为北约成员国的欧洲国家也是如此--它们都是美国的附庸,在所有方面都比不上美国,因为它们不被允许这样做。虽然德国是欧洲最大的经济体,也是最先进的国家,但相对于美国,它仍然是一个落后国家,美国人对此很满意,因为这不会对他们的霸权和帝国主义构成生存威胁。

@turtlesoup8134
@wong3150 yeah but what is the use of a huge but ageing population? They are not innovative or doing anything for that matter. Look at how their patent application compared to china now. Look at their company dying at a faster rate than their old man. At this rate, Japan is going to die poor especially when China kept on investing in their high tech manufacturing. If SK and JPN is not integrating with Chinese econ and manufacturing then they will be fully replaced by China as it is happening now at an increasing rate.

@wong3150 是的,但庞大但老龄化的人口有什么用呢?他们没有创新,也没有做任何事情。看看他们的专利申请与中国相比是怎样的。看看他们公司的死亡速度比他们的老人还快。照这样下去,日本会穷死的,尤其是当中国不断投资于高科技制造业的时候。如果韩国和日本不与中国的经济和制造业融合,那么他们就会被中国完全取代,就像现在正在发生的那样,而且速度越来越快。

@user-dt7iw2dp1q
@catinbootsnow4267 After World War II, South Korea and Japan could develop their economies rapidly because the United States helped Japan and South Korea, while allowing Japan to occupy some industries to sanction South Korea, while allowing South Korea to occupy some industries to collide with Japan. These two countries are just two chess pieces of the United States, and their economic growth rate is largely influenced by the United States. This is evident in Japan.

@catinbootsnow4267 二战后,韩国和日本之所以能迅速发展经济,是因为美国帮助了日本和韩国,同时让日本占据一些产业来制裁韩国,再让韩国占据一些产业来和制衡日本。这两个国家只是美国的两颗棋子,其经济增长速度很大程度上受到美国的影响。这一点在日本表现得很明显。

@cocoyu5537
My mom took a flight the first time when she was 57. I took a flight the first time when I was 27, for business trip. My son took a flight the first time when he was 8 months. It shows how Chinese people income have increased over the past 20 years.

我妈妈57岁时第一次坐飞机,我27岁出差时第一次坐飞机。我儿子8个月时第一次坐飞机。这说明了过去20年中国人的收入是如何增长的。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@davidgmaloof
@cocoyu5537 In the US, we went from flying paper kites in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina to landing a man on the moon in less than an average lifetime. China's accomplishments are impressive; I've seen better, but not much.

@cocoyu5537 在美国,我们从在北卡罗莱纳州基蒂霍克放纸鸢到人类登上月球,用了不到普通人一生的时间。中国的成就虽然令人印象深刻,但我见过更好的(但不多)。

@louiserobinson9776
With 4 out of 5 of the world’s richest persons in the US, its GDP per capita is severely distorted. It also highlights the inequality in the US where the super rich gets richer while the number of homeless Americans grows

世界上最富有的5个人中有4个在美国,美国的人均GDP严重失真。这也凸显了美国的不平等,超级富豪越来越富,而无家可归的美国人却越来越多。

@ftft98
Napoleon stated, “Let China sleep. For when she wakes, the world will tremble”. How prophetic!

拿破仑说:"让中国沉睡吧。因为当她醒来时,世界将为之颤抖"。多么有先见之明啊!

@st.altair4936
The same could be said for Africa.
If the people of Congo (DRC) manage to organize and take control of their government for instance, they would easily become a world superpower in a few decades with their vast amounts of resources in their land, that's currently being exploited by western nations. If they make a proper Socialist government of course.

非洲也是如此。
举例来说,如果刚果(金)人民能够组织起来,控制他们的政府,那么凭借他们土地上的大量资源,他们将在几十年内轻松成为世界超级大国。当然,如果他们能建立一个合适的社会主义政府的话。

@F_Liu
In the West, capital has primacy, the interests of capital are what dictate political decisions, whereas in China political decisions are what dictate capital.

在西方,资本至上,资本利益决定政治决策,而在中国,政治决策决定资本利益。

@F_Liu
@view1st In China (a Socialist country), political decisions are made to serve the best interest of majority population as the ruling party comes from and represents a revolutionary force of the poor and working class. The state power makes sure that wealth created by capitalists' activities benefits its entire people. 'Capitalism' is used as a tool. Whereas in the West, the extreme wealthy influences/controls their governments to serve their best interests.

@view1st 在中国(社会主义国家),政治决策是为大多数人的最大利益服务的,因为执政党来自穷人和工人阶级,代表着他们的革命力量。国家政权确保资本家活动创造的财富惠及全体人民。“资本主义”被用作一种工具。而在西方,极端富裕的人影响/控制着政府,为他们的最大利益服务。

@tedder130
Another insight from Michael Hudson is that China’s public investment in infrastructure allows workers a higher standard of living independent of wages.
American workers pay through the nose for housing, education, transportation, etc. Chinese workers do not.

迈克尔-哈德逊的另一个见解是中国在基础设施方面的公共投资使工人的生活水平得以提高,而与工资无关。
美国工人要为住房、教育、交通等支付高昂的费用,而中国工人不需要。

@user-gc5cy5js5z
For example, China's high-speed railway has always been in a loss making state, and I believe it will never achieve profitability.
Anti China groups claim that high-speed railways are meaningless because they cannot be profitable and incur huge losses.
But the truth is that infrastructure such as high-speed railways have greatly driven the local economy, connecting all provinces and providing people with faster and cheaper travel options. Businessmen wake up in Shanghai in the morning and arrive in Beijing or Guangzhou in the afternoon to discuss their next business deal.
Not only have merchants gained convenience, but ordinary people have access to high-speed and affordable railways, and their mobility between provinces will also drive local economic growth.
However, in the West, infrastructure is in the hands of private enterprises, and they cannot accept unprofitable infrastructure. Their short-sighted and greedy nature cannot be changed.
Only state-owned enterprises will sacrifice immediate benefits for longer-term benefits, benefiting both businesses and the lives of ordinary people.
Many people discuss that the per capita income in the United States is higher, but they need to pay a high cost of living.
Although China's per capita income is currently lower than that of the United States, people's cost of living is acceptable. Per capita income does not necessarily mean that the quality of life will be better, and infrastructure and other conditions are also crucial factors affecting the quality of life.

例如,中国的高速铁路一直处于亏损状态,我相信它永远不会实现盈利。
反华组织声称高速铁路没有意义,因为它们无法盈利,而且会产生巨额亏损。
但事实上,高速铁路等基础设施极大地推动了当地经济的发展,它连接了所有省份,为人们提供了更快、更便宜的出行选择。商人们早上在上海醒来,下午就能到达北京或广州洽谈下一笔生意。
不仅商人们获得了便利,普通百姓也能享受到高速、廉价的铁路,他们在各省之间的流动也将推动当地的经济增长。
然而,在西方,基础设施掌握在私营企业手中,他们无法接受无利可图的基础设施,他们短视、贪婪的本性无法改变。
只有国有企业才会牺牲眼前利益,换取更长远的利益,这既惠及了企业,也惠及了普通百姓的生活。
很多人说美国的人均收入高,但要付出高昂的生活成本。
虽然目前中国的人均收入低于美国,但人们的生活成本是可以接受的。人均收入高并不意味着生活质量就一定高,基础设施等条件也是影响生活质量的关键因素。

@PerceivedREALITY999
China leads in 37 of 44 technologies tracked in a year-long project by thinktank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

在澳大利亚战略政策研究所(Australian Strategic Policy Institute)智囊团为期一年的项目中,中国在44项技术中的37项处于领先地位。

@lluow
I remember back in 2000 there WAS a heated debate on how much percentage of economy should be private in China. Unlike what western watchers usually claim, Chinese leadership closely studies and adopts various western economic theories including liberal economics. There’s a period when Chinese academics were heavily influenced by the free market theories. However years of lessons have taught CPC that never ever put all eggs into one basket ie never rely on one single theory to develop economy. that’s why CPC names its economy as socialism with Chinese characteristics. I’m glad their prudence turns out to be correct.

我记得早在2000年,关于中国民营经济应该占多大比例的问题就曾引起过激烈的争论。与西方观察家通常的说法不同,中国领导层密切研究并采纳了包括自由经济学在内的各种西方经济理论。中国学术界曾有一段时间深受自由市场理论的影响,但多年的经验教训告诉中国,永远不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里,即永远不要依靠单一理论来发展经济。我很高兴他们的谨慎被证明是正确的。

@annleeloveskitten1888
As Chinese, my understanding about China's achievements during the past decades is that besides strategic planning of the government, average Chinese's hard work also plays a role.
In China, most grandparents and parents work their ass off so that their offsprings can live a better life. Being frugal themselves, they accumulate wealth for future generations.
Those who make much bigger contributions to China's growth, I think, are elite scientists and researchers who spent their whole life working on infrastructure and heavy industry projects during the years when China was being targeted by both the US and USSR. Those projects might not seem to be directly related to today's economic achievement, but without them, China's security would have been compromised and China would not have had the opportunity to develop.

作为中国人,我对中国过去几十年取得的成就的理解是除了政府的战略规划,普通中国人的辛勤工作也发挥了作用。
在中国,大多数祖父母和父母都是为了让子女过上更好的生活而拼命工作,他们自己勤俭节约,为子孙后代积累财富。
我认为对中国经济增长做出更大贡献的是那些精英科学家和研究人员,他们在中国被美国和苏联盯上的那些年里,毕生致力于基础设施和重工业项目。这些项目看似与今天的经济成就没有直接关系,但如果没有它们,中国的安全就会受到威胁,中国也就没有发展的机会。

@wardlynds
When I first came to China 25 years ago, I was at an English Corner in Nanjing. During this English corner, the topic of Chinese technicians getting their education in China, going to the USA, getting their higher degrees and then staying there. Someone said that these people are not coming back to China. Someone else at the back of the group called out: “We are” and, as he said, we are coming back. He felt that the future for these people was here in China.

25年前我第一次来中国时,我参加了南京的一个英语角。在这次英语角活动中,大家讨论的话题是中国技术人员在中国接受教育,然后去美国获得更高的学位,然后留在那里。有人说,这些人都不回中国了。队伍后面的其他人叫了起来:"我们会",正如他所说,我们会回来。他认为这些人的未来在中国。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@hornbill12
Brilliant analysis of the strength of the China economy. Help me appreciate the Chinese leadership in handling this vast nation in a peaceful and harmonious manner

对中国经济实力的精彩分析,帮助我欣赏中国领导层以和平、和谐的方式处理这个庞大的国家。

@nmew6926
Residential rent is counted in GDP of a country. In San Francisco or NY, an average one bed room app may cost $3,500 a month. That means $42,000 is added in the US Gdp for one unit rented. This although that there may be many homeless in your neighborhood, trash piles, urine smell, human faeces, roberry, gangs, graffiti. Now same standard appartment in Shenzhen or Shanghai may be rented for 20% the price in US in a far better environment. But the GDP added is only 20% than in US.
So we now understand why there are many poor people in so called rich countries.

住宅租金被计入一个国家的GDP。在旧金山或纽约,一个普通的一室一厅每月可能需要3500美元。这就意味着在美国,每租用一个单元,GDP就会增加42,000 美元。尽管如此,您所在的社区可能会有许多无家可归者、垃圾堆、尿骚味、人类粪便、蟑螂、帮派、涂鸦。现在,在深圳或上海,同样的标准公寓的租金可能只有美国的20%,而且环境要好得多,但增加的GDP仅为美国的20%。
所以,我们现在明白了为什么在所谓的富裕国家会有很多穷人。

@ZweiZwolf
IIRC, Japan gamed the GDP rent calculation by saying that ALL rent was like downtown Tokyo - until the bubble popped. I wonder if the US is doing the same, where ALL imputed rent is counted like downtown Manhattan. And whether China is flipping it by counting rent like it's in rural western China.

我记得日本在计算GDP租金时玩了个把戏,说所有租金都像东京市中心一样--直到泡沫破裂。 我不知道美国是否也在这样做,把所有估算租金都算成曼哈顿市中心的租金;也不知道中国是否也在翻转这种做法,把全国的房租算成中国西部农村的房租。

@Dordord
Yes, residential rents in China are always from individuals to individuals, for the land owner/apartment owner, as long as they don't report itself to the govt, the govt won't tax that part, its impossible to calculate those part GDP.

是的,中国的住宅租金一直都是个人对个人,对于土地所有者/公寓所有者来说,只要他们不向政府报告,政府就不会对这部分征税,也就不可能计算这部分的GDP。

@robertseaborne5758
Thank you Ben, your rigour and depth of analysis is much appreciated. Western MSM is either unable or simply prefers not to delve into how and why China's productivity and economy has been so successful. Developing countries are gradually learning for themselves how Socialism with Chinese characteristics is lifting 800> million people out of extreme poverty, without having to resort to colonialism and military alliances.

谢谢你,本,非常感谢你严谨深入的分析。西方媒体要么无法,要么就是不愿深入探讨中国的生产力和经济为何如此成功。发展中国家正在逐渐了解中国特色社会主义是如何让8亿多人摆脱极端贫困而无需诉诸殖民主义和军事联盟的。

@fredh4482
You are billed $1000+ for an ambulance ride in the U.S. (one 15-minute trip through New York costing $1772 in 2013).
The same ambulance ride in China is billed at $10+ (in Beijing, 50 yuan/US$8 for first 3km, 7 yuan/US$1 for each additional km in 2020).
That $1000 is counted into the "U.S. GDP", and that $10 is counted into the "China GDP".

在美国,你需要支付1000多美元的救护车费用(2013年,纽约15分钟的救护车费用为1772美元)。
在中国,同样的救护车费用为10多美元(在北京,前3公里50元/8美元,2020年后每增加1公里7元/1美元)。
这1000美元计入"美国的GDP",10美元计入"中国的GDP"。

@chadwickyang7885
10 years ago I got food poisoning (food trom the previous night office Thanksgiving party) while at the Barnes & Noble store one Saturday afternoon. Got a ride on the ambulance 3 miles down the road to the hospital and it cost me $600.00. That was 10 long years ago !

10年前的一个周六下午,我在巴诺书店买东西时食物中毒了(前一晚办公室感恩节聚会的食物)。 我坐救护车走了3英里的路才到医院,花了600美元。那是10年前的事了!

@douginorlando6260
China has 4 companies each making progress developing reusable rockets. China has many technical teams developing unmanned subs. China has dozens of companies producing EV cars. China is simultaneously developing several different design approaches to Thorium based nuclear reactors. China is making rapid technical progress in every area.

中国有四家公司在研制可重复使用火箭方面各有进展。中国有许多技术团队在研发无人潜水器。中国有数十家公司生产电动汽车。中国正在同时开发几种不同设计方法的钍基核反应堆。 中国在各个领域都取得了飞速的技术进步。

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